摘要
航空物流作为五大物流系统之一，在现代社会发展中有着举足轻重的地位，
特别是我国物流业发展迅速，航空物流作为其中的重要部分也逐渐发展起来，
并且航空货运量不断增加。昆明长水国际机场作为“一带一路”战略中的桥头
堡枢纽机场，2019年旅客吞吐量排名全国第六，货运吞吐量排名全国第八，未
来随着 T2航站楼的建设完工，吞吐量也一定会随之增加。因此对昆明长水机场
航空物流发展的需求进行预测，并以此作为基础研究发展对策十分必要。
本文从航空物流及主要包含的设施概念及内涵出发，研究其发展过程，通
过分析我国航空物流的发展趋势及政治背景，结合昆明所处的地理位置优势，
确定研究昆明长水国际机场航空物流发展的必要性和可行性。根据往年的历史
数据，采用三次指数平滑预测法和灰色预测模型相结合的方法预测未来的航空
货运吞吐量，再通过 PEST和 SWOT模型分析，讨论昆明长水国际机场航空物
流发展的优劣势，给出昆明机场航空物流发展规划的建议。
本文以昆明长水国际机场作为研究对象，在数据的基础上对其航空货运进
行分析，并对未来的规划给出建议。
关键词：昆明长水国际机场；航空物流；物流园区；货运吞吐量预测；发展
规划建议

Abstract
As one of the five major logistics systems, aviation logistics has a pivotal
position in the development of modern society, especially the rapid development of
Chinese logistics industry, aviation logistics as an important part of it has gradually
developed, and the volume of air cargo continues to increase. Kunming Changshui
International Airport, as a bridgehead hub airport in the "The Belt and Road
Initiative" strategy, ranked sixth in the country in terms of passenger throughput and
ninth in terms of cargo throughput. In the future, with the completion of the T2
terminal, the throughput will also be certain to increase accordingly. Therefore, it is
necessary to predict the development needs of Kunming Changshui Airport's aviation
logistics and give suggestions on the development plan of Kunming Airport's aviation
logistics.
Starting from the concept and connotation of aviation logistics and its related
facilities, this paper studies the development process of aviation logistics. Through
analyzing the development trend and political background of Chinese aviation
logistics, combined with Kunming's geographical advantages, then conformed the
necessity and feasibility to study the development of aviation logistics of Kunming
Changshui International Airport. According to the historical data of previous years,
using the three-time exponential smoothing prediction method and the gray prediction
model to predict the future air cargo throughput. After analyzing advantages and
disadvantages of Kunming Changshui International Airport with PEST and SWOT
models, put up with some the suggestions for Kunming's aviation logistics.
This paper takes Kunming Changshui International Airport as the research object,
analyzes its air cargo development on the basis of data, and gives suggestions for
future planning.
Key Words: Kunming Changshui International Airport; aviation logistics; logistics
park; freight throughput forecast; development planning proposal

目录
第 1章绪论................................................................................................................. 1
1.1研究背景与意义.............................................................................................. 1
1.1.1研究的背景......................................................................................................................1
1.1.2研究的意义......................................................................................................................2
1.2国内外文献综述.............................................................................................. 3
1.2.1国外航空物流研究现状..................................................................................................3
1.2.2国内航空物流研究现状..................................................................................................4
1.3研究方法与内容.............................................................................................. 7
1.3.1研究方法..........................................................................................................................7
1.3.2研究内容..........................................................................................................................7
1.3.3研究思路..........................................................................................................................8
第 2章航空物流、需求分析及战略分析相关理论................................................. 9
2.1航空物流相关理论.......................................................................................... 9
2.1.1航空物流概况..................................................................................................................9
2.1.2航空物流运营中的设施................................................................................................10
2.1.3航空物流园区及物流产业链........................................................................................11
2.2航空物流需求预测相关理论........................................................................ 15
2.2.1灰色预测法....................................................................................................................15
2.2.2指数平滑法....................................................................................................................18
2.3航空物流战略分析相关理论........................................................................ 20
2.3.1PEST分析.......................................................................................................................20
2.3.2SWOT分析.....................................................................................................................20
2.4本章小结........................................................................................................ 22
第 3章昆明长水国际机场航空物流需求分析....................................................... 23
3.1昆明长水国际机场物流发展概述................................................................ 23
3.1.1国内外航空物流发展概况............................................................................................23
3.1.2昆明长水国际机场发展概况........................................................................................27
3.1.3昆明长水国际机场航空物流发展现状分析................................................................28
3.2货运吞吐量预测思路.................................................................................... 29
。。。以下略