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MBA硕士毕业论文_HS风力发电建设项目风险管理研究PDF

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目前,我国能源发电占比最大的仍然是火电,根据能源发展环保性要求,低碳环保 新能源电力将会是今后电力行业的主要发展方向。根据电力行业发展的现状,新能源发 电技术中发展最快的是风力发电,其次是光伏发电。风能是一种可再生资源,取之不尽、 用之不竭,加之技术成熟度高、环境破坏小和经济性好等优点,使得风力发电成为近年 来新能源发电的一种主流方式。与其他项目一样,风力发电项目也具有一定的风险性, 且风险存在于项目的各个阶段,有必要对风险进行识别和评价,采取有效的风险防范措 施进行主动应对,预防风险的发生,确保项目效益。因此,做好风力发电项目全生命周 期的风险管理工作,对风力发电项目的可持续发展具有重要意义。 DHS风力发电场是广西地区比较有代表性的风力发电场,归属国有企业管理。自DHS 风力发电项目筹备工作以来,企业就高度重视项目风险管理,不仅明确了项目风险管理 责任部门,而且制定了风险管理相关制度,已基本形成覆盖公司全员的风险管理体制机 制,但风险管理仍然在系统性、有效性等方面存在明显不足。本文按照项目风险管理的 相关理论,运用德尔菲方法识别出该项目的主要风险有自然风险、政策风险、经济风险、 技术风险和管理风险。采用模糊网络分析评判方法,得出政策风险是极高风险,技术风 险和管理风险是高风险,经济风险是中风险,自然风险是低风险。根据风险评估结果, 结合DHS风力发电项目实际情况,提出针对性的风险应对措施。采用风险规避应对政策 风险;采用风险消减应对资金与投资风险;采用风险化解应对环境风险;采用风险消减 应对运输风险;采用风险消减应对技术风险,希望将项目风险将到最低。 本文以DHS风力发电项目为研究对象,通过采用项目风险管理的相关理论和方法, 结合项目实际情况,对风力发电场项目风险进行研究,为后续投产的风力发电项目风险 管理提供参考和借鉴。 关键词:风力发电项目;风险管理;策略 II RESEARCHONRISKMANAGEMENTOFDHSWINDFARMPROJECT ABSTRACT Atpresent,thelargestproportionofenergygenerationinChinaisstillthermalpower. Accordingtotherequirementsofenergydevelopmentandenvironmentalprotection, low-carbonenvironmentalprotectionnewenergypowerwillbethemaindevelopment directionofthepowerindustryinthefuture.Accordingtothecurrentsituationofthe developmentofthepowerindustry,thefastest-growingnewenergypowergeneration technologyiswindpower,followedbyphotovoltaicpowergeneration.Windenergyisakind ofrenewableresources,whichisinexhaustibleandinexhaustible.Withtheadvantagesofhigh technologymaturity,smallenvironmentaldamageandgoodeconomy,windpowergeneration hasbecomeamainstreamwayofnewenergygenerationinrecentyears.Likeotherprojects, windpowerprojectsalsohavecertainrisks,andtherisksexistinallstagesoftheproject.Itis necessarytoidentifyandevaluatetherisks,takeeffectiveriskpreventionmeasurestotakethe initiative,preventtheoccurrenceofrisks,andensuretheprojectbenefits.Therefore,itisof greatsignificanceforthesustainabledevelopmentofwindpowerprojectstodoagoodjobin riskmanagementofthewholelifecycleofwindpowerprojects. DHSwindfarmisarepresentativewindfarminGuangxi,whichbelongstothe managementofstate-ownedenterprises.Sincethepreparatoryworkofwindpowergeneration projectofDHSwindfarm,theenterprisehasattachedgreatimportancetoprojectrisk management,definedtheriskmanagementdepartment,formulatedtheriskmanagement systemofwindfarm,andformedtheriskmanagementsystemandmechanismcoveringthe wholecompany.However,therearestillobviousdeficienciesinthesystematicandeffective aspectsofriskmanagement.Accordingtothetheoryofprojectriskmanagement,thispaper usesDelphimethodtoidentifythemainrisksoftheproject,includingnaturalrisk,policyrisk, economicrisk,technicalriskandmanagementrisk.Byusingthemethodoffuzzynetwork analysisandevaluation,itisconcludedthatthepolicyriskisextremelyhigh,thetechnical riskandmanagementriskarehigh,theeconomicriskismedium,andthenaturalriskislow. III Accordingtotheresultsofriskassessment,combinedwiththeactualsituationofwindpower generationprojectinDHSwindfarm,thepaperputsforwardtargetedriskresponsemeasures. Whentherearepolicyrisks,theriskresponsemethodsareriskavoidanceandrisk containment;whentherearecapitalandinvestmentrisks,theresponsemethodsaremainly riskavoidance;whenthereareenvironmentalprotectionrisks,theresponsemethodsare mainlyriskmitigation;incaseofequipmenttransportationrisk,themainresponsemethodis riskreduction;incaseoftechnicalrisk,themainresponsemethodisriskreduction,hopingto minimizetheprojectrisk. Inthispaper,thewindpowerprojectofDHSwindfarmistakenastheresearchobject. Byusingtherelevanttheoriesandmethodsofprojectriskmanagement,combinedwiththe actualsituationoftheproject,theriskoftheprojectissystematicallyanalyzedandstudied, whichprovidesreferenceandreferenceforfuturewindpowerprojectriskmanagement. KEYWORDS:WindpowerProject;RiskManagement;Countermeasure IV 目录 摘要.........................................................................................................................................I ABSTRACT..............................................................................................................................II 第一章导论.........................................................................................................................1 1.1选题背景及意义...........................................................................................................1 1.1.1选题背景.............................................................................................................1 1.1.2研究意义.............................................................................................................2 1.2风力发电建设项目风险管理国内外研究现状...........................................................3 1.2.1风力发电建设项目风险管理国外研究现状.....................................................3 1.2.2风力发电建设项目风险管理国内研究现状.....................................................3 1.2.3研究综述..............................................................................................................4 1.3论文研究内容和研究方法...........................................................................................4 1.3.1研究内容.............................................................................................................4 1.3.2研究方法.............................................................................................................5 第二章DHS风力发电建设项目的风险识别.......................................................................6 2.1DHS风力发电建设项目概述.......................................................................................6 2.1.1DHS风力发电建设项目的背景.........................................................................6 2.1.2DHS风力发电建设项目的内容.........................................................................8 2.1.3DHS风力发电建设项目的主要特点.................................................................8 2.2DHS风力发电建设项目风险识别方法的选择.........................................................10 2.2.1项目风险识别方法简介....................................................................................10 2.2.2DHS风力发电建设项目风险识别方法的选择依据........................................11 2.2.3DHS风力发电建设项目风险识别的过程.......................................................12 2.3DHS风力发电建设项目风险识别结果的分析.........................................................13 2.3.1政策风险............................................................................................................14 2.3.2资金与投资风险................................................................................................14 2.3.3环境风险............................................................................................................14 2.3.4技术风险............................................................................................................14 2.3.5运输风险............................................................................................................15 V 第三章DHS风力发电建设项目的风险评估........................................................................16 3.1DHS风力发电建设项目风险评估方法的选择.........................................................16 3.1.1项目风险评估方法.........................................................................