当下，城市综合体项目投资正面临着诸多挑战，如面临激烈的市场竞争等，如何提 高城市综合体项目的管理水平是关乎其未来发展的重要指标。本文在进行研究时，主要 以A时代广场城市综合体项目作为研究对象，对于其风险管理工作中依然存在的风险因 素进行了识别、评价以及控制措施制定，并希望通过本文的进一步分析后，强化A时代 广场城市综合体的风险防控水平，提高风险抵御意识，并能够在挑战中得以顺利发展。 本文在全生命周期理论、风险致因理论的基础上，围绕A时代广场城市综合体项目 这一对象进行研究。基于城市综合体项目风险管理研究的背景下，经过相关资料查询， 获取本研究需要的借鉴内容，并在此前提下，针对本研究涉及的概念、理论等进行总结， 从而夯实本文的研究基矗根据A时代广场综合体项目这一对象，通过全生命周期理论、 系统工程理论以及风险致因理论，分别从不同的方面进行了具体研究，其中包括风险识 别、风险评价以及风险控制三点。同时又将A时代广场城市综合体项目的风险分成四个 阶段：投资决策阶段、规划设计及招标阶段、建设阶段和租售及运营管理阶段，总包括 的风险项因素有22个。通过利用模糊综合评价法对A时代广场城市综合体项目风险等 级进行评估，得出其归列为“很大风险”范畴。在风险划分中，决策阶段风险等级被划入 “很大风险”行列，而规划设计及招标阶段风险、建设阶段、租售及经营管理阶段风险等 级都被划分为“较大风险”行列。所以，处于项目开发阶段必须要加强风险防控意识，制 定有效地风险防范举措。根据A时代广场综合体项目风险尚存的一些问题，本研究主要 通过投资决策、规划设计及招标、建设、租售及运营管理4大阶段进行分析，最后对现 存的“很大风险”与“较大风险”问题进行献策。 关键词：城市综合体；风险管理；模糊综合评价；全生命周期理论 研究类型：专题研究 Subject:ResearchonLifeCycleRiskManagementofTimesSquare ComplexProject. Specialty:MasterofBusinessAdministration Name:LiZhaohui(Signature)1 Instructor:LiYongqing(Signature)1 ABSTRACT Atpresent,theinvestmentofurbancomplexprojectisfacingmanychallenges,including thefiercemarketcompetitionandsoon.Howtoimprovethemanagementlevelofurban complexprojectisanimportantindexrelatedtoitsfuturedevelopment.Intheresearch,this papermainlytakestheATimesSquareurbancomplexprojectastheresearchobject,identifies, evaluatesandformulatestheriskfactorsthatstillexistintheriskmanagementwork,andhopes thatafterthefurtheranalysisofthispaper,theriskpreventionandcontrolleveloftheATimes Squareurbancomplexwillbestrengthened,theawarenessofriskresistancecanbeimproved, anditcanbedevelopedsmoothlyinthechallenge. Basedonthewholelifecycletheoryandthetheoryofriskcausation,thispaperfocuseson theurbancomplexprojectofTimesSquareA.Firstofall,basedonthebackgroundofurban complexprojectriskmanagementresearch,throughtherelevantdataquery,toobtainthe contentthatthisstudyneedstolearnfrom,andonthispremise,theconceptsandtheories involvedinthisstudyaresummarized,soastoconsolidatethetheoreticalbasisofthisstudy. Then,accordingtotheobjectofATimesSquarecomplexproject,throughthewholelifecycle theory,systemengineeringtheoryandriskcausetheory,respectively,thespecificresearchis carriedoutfromtheaspects,oneisriskidentification,theotherisriskidentification.Itis dividedintothecategoryof"greaterrisk".Therefore,inthestageofprojectdevelopment,we muststrengthentheawarenessofriskpreventionandcontrolandformulateeffectiverisk preventionmeasures.AccordingtosomeproblemsstillexistingintheriskofATimesSquare complexproject,thisstudymainlyanalyzesthefourstagesofinvestmentdecision,earlystage, constructionstagerentandsaleandoperationmanagement,andfinallyputsforwardsome suggestionsontheexistingproblemsof"greatrisk"and"bigrisk". Keywords:urbancomplex;riskmanagement;fuzzycomprehensiveevaluation;wholelife cycletheory ResearchType:MonographicResearch 目录 I 目录 1绪论.........................................................................................................................................1 1.1研究背景及意义...........................................................................................................1 1.1.1研究背景.............................................................................................................1 1.1.2研究意义.............................................................................................................2 1.2国内外研究现状...........................................................................................................2 1.2.1国外研究现状.....................................................................................................2 1.2.2国内研究现状.....................................................................................................4 1.2.3国内外研究评述.................................................................................................5 1.3研究内容、方法及技术路线.......................................................................................6 1.3.1研究方法.............................................................................................................6 1.3.2研究内容.............................................................................................................6 1.3.3技术路线.............................................................................................................7 2综合体项目全生命周期风险管理相关理论综述.................................................................9 2.1城市商业综合体的定义及其分类...............................................................................9 2.1.1城市商业综合体的定义.....................................................................................9 2.1.2城市商业综合体的分类.....................................................................................9 2.2风险管理的定义及其内容.........................................................................................10 2.2.1风险管理的定义...............................................................................................10 2.2.2风险管理的内容...............................................................................................11 2.3风险管理相关理论.....................................................................................................13 2.3.1全生命周期理论...............................................................................................13 2.3.2风险致因理论...................................................................................................14 2.3.3系统工程理论...................................................................................................15 3A时代广场综合体项目风险识别.......................................................................................17 3.1A时代广场综合体项目概况.....................................................................................17 3.1.1项目简介...........................................................................................................17 3.1.2项目生命周期划分...........................................................................................18 3.2项目风险因素识别.....................................................................................................19 3.2.1风险识别途径...................................................................................................19 3.2.2初步风险因素清单的建立...............................................................................21 3.2.3风险因素的筛选...............................................................................................22 目录 II 3.3项目风险因素解析.....................................................................................................26 3.3.1决策阶段风险...................................................................................................26 3.3.2规划设计及招标阶段风险...............................................................................28 3.3.3建设阶段风险...................................................................................................30 3.3.4租售及运营管理阶段风险...............................................................................31 4A时代广场综合体项目风险评价.......................................................................................33 4.1风险评价体系构建...................................