随着经济的高速发展，企业面对日益变化的需求，经营规模不断扩大；另一 方面，市场日趋饱和，企业面临的压力越来越大。供应链在企业链条扮演着重要 的角色，而供应链的链条中前端研发的复杂度，后端供应商的复杂度以及中间计 划环节的不到位不断将企业流程复杂化，造成库存量和企业运营成本的不断增加， 阻碍企业快速增长的步伐。库存管理作为供应链管理中重要的一个环节，在企业 降低成本提高利润中扮演者重要的角色，做好库存管理是企业增长的关键。 艾利广州公司是一家以服装标签生产为主的印刷公司，在库存管理方面缺乏 科学的管理思想，依靠经验主义进行需求预测和库存计划，导致库存成本高、库 存资金占用量大和库存结构不合理等一系列问题。据此，本文以艾利广州公司服 装标签半成品库存优化为研究目标，结合供应链管理理论、库存管理理论和需求 预测方法，首先整理艾利广州公司服装标签订单需求数据，建立数据模型对订单 需求模式进行分析，并运用指数平滑法对需求模式进行预测；在此基础上，结合 产品分类与需求预测制定服装标签半成品的库存管理优化方案；最后对优化方案 进行效果评估，并制定相应的实施计划与保障措施，以期为艾利广州公司服装标 签半成品库存管理提供更为科学、合理的方法。 季节性需求模式是服装标签独有的特点，各类产品在不同年度表现出很强的 相似性规律。本文整理了公司最近三年的订单数据，按照类别进行季节性需求模 式分析，并利用向量夹角原理对不同年份的需求模式进行相似性验证，进而建立 各类产品的季节性需求模式；然后通过需求预测完成各类产品的库存计划设计， 体现了利用需求预测指导库存管理的基本思想。论文研究结论对艾利广州公司服 装标签半成品的库存管理可提供理论与现实指导，有助于公司节约成本、提高盈 利水平并改善管理效率，同时可为服装行业相关产品的需求预测和库存管理提供 一定的借鉴。 关键词：服装标签半成品，需求模式，需求预测，库存计划 MBA学位论文 作者：金鹤 艾利广州服装标签半成品库存计划优化研究 II OPTIMIZATION STUDY ON SEMI-FINISHED GARMENT LABLE INVENTORY PLAN OF ALLIE GUANGHZHOU COMPANY Abstract Along with the rapid growth of economy, enterprises embrace constant development and business scale expansion, which is accompanied with more and more challenges as well. In this complex operation environment, supply chain plays a pivotal role to link front-product development to end-shop floor execution, plus back-end suppliers management. All problems occurred among the whole process leads to unreasonable inventory rise and cost increasing, which stops enterprises from fast growing. And during the process, a good inventory management is the key element for enterprises to reduce cost, uplift benefits and finally achieve great growth. As a great foreign-funded enterprise, Allie specializes in retail branding and intelligent solutions specialized in garment label. However, due to the lack of scientific inventory management theories, and experimentalism on demand and supply planning, Allie meets a series of challenges, including high cost, large capital occupation and inappropriate inventory structure. Under the theoretical guidance of supply chain management, inventory planning, and demand planning, this thesis firstly builds up demand model by collecting and analyzing order data; and secondly predict demand trend by utilizing Exponential Smoothing ( ES in short), and then matches demand with inventory planning with support of scientific product taxonomy; and finally create an optimized inventory plan and guarantee the best execution after simulating the plan. This thesis aims to create a scientific method for semi-finished inventory management. What makes retail branding labels special is its regular seasonally changing demand model. With Allie’s demand data in three years, this thesis analyzes the seasonal demand model by category, and verify the seasonal similarity of different years by Multi-dimensional vector cosine value, to finalize the seasonal demand model; and then predict the seasonal demand by Exponential Smooth to support inventory planning to the most. This research will greatly contribute to Allie on cost saving, efficiency improvement and benefit growth, also can function as a guidance for similar products’ demand and inventory planning. Key words: Semi-finished garment label, Demand mode, Demand forecast, Inventory planning MBA学位论文 作者：金鹤 艾利广州服装标签半成品库存计划优化研究 III 目 录 中文摘要 ................................................................................................. I Abstract .................................................................................................. II 第一章 绪论 .......................................................................................... 1 1.1 研究背景与意义 .............................................. 1 1.1.1 研究背景 .............................................................................................................1 1.1.2 研究意义 .............................................................................................................3 1.2 研究内容与思路 .............................................. 4 1.2.1 研究内容 .............................................................................................................4 1.2.2 研究方法与工具 ...............................................................................................4 1.2.3 研究思路 .............................................................................................................5 第二章 相关理论与方法概述 ............................................................... 7 2.1 供应链管理理论 .............................................. 7 2.2 库存管理理论 ................................................ 8 2.2.1 库存管理理论概述 ...........................................................................................8 2.2.2 ABC分类管理 ...................................................................................................9 2.2.3 订货模型 .............................................................................................................9 2.2.4 库存周转率...................................................................................................... 11 2.3 需求预测方法 ............................................... 11 第三章 艾利广州公司服装标签半成品库存管理现状及问题分析 ... 14 3.1 公司概及产品介绍 ........................................... 14 3.2 服装标签半成品库存管理现状及问题分析 ....................... 16 3.2.1 生产现状及分析 ............................................................................................ 16 3.2.2 库存资金现状及分析 ................................................................................... 17 3.2.3 库存结构现状及分析 ................................................................................... 18 3.2.4 库存周转现状及分析 ................................................................................... 19 3.2.5 库存计划现状及分析 ................................................................................... 20 MBA学位论文 作者：金鹤 艾利广州服装标签半成品库存计划优化研究 IV 3.2.6 需求预测现状及分析 ................................................................................... 24 3.3 库存管理存在的问题及原因总结 ............................... 25 第四章 艾利广州公司服装标签半成品需求分析 .............................. 27 4.1 产品工艺类别 ............................................... 27 4.2 需求季节性模式分析 ......................................... 27 4.2.1 季节性模式描述 ............................................................................................ 27 4.2.2 季节模式验证 ................................................................................................. 29 4.2.3 季节模式估计 ................................................................................................. 32 4.3 需求预测 ................................................... 32 4.3.1 需求总量预测 ................................................................................................. 32 4.3.2 需求季节性模式预测 ................................................................................... 34 第五章 艾利广州公司服装标签半成品库存计划优化 ...................... 36 5.1 生产能力分析 ............................................... 36 5.2 库存优化