I 摘要 机动车检验检测工作作为我国一项针对上道路行驶机动车的强制性检测要求， 早些年一直是由公安交通部门下设的车辆管理所或交警大队负责。然而近年来我 国机动车保有量的与日俱增，使得机动车检验检测市场的规模不断的扩大，政府部 门自2000年起开始在全国推行机动车检验检测机构社会化。成都地区作为全国机 动车保有量排名前三的城市，自2010年起开始推行机动车检验检测机构社会化以 来，近年来社会化市场呈现蓬勃发展的景象，尤其是近3年内在市场收费政策调 整等因素的刺激下，全市机动车检验机构数量呈现出爆发式增长的态势。 XS公司是一家专业从事机动车检验检测机构投资建设和经营管理的公司，目 前在四川地区拥有数家投资或管理的检验机构，同时拟于2021年前在成都再建设 一家机动车检验检测机构项目。机动车检验检测机构作为获取计量认证证书 （CMA），向社会提供公正性检验检测数据的机构，其在项目筹备、项目建设和 项目运营期间都面临着来自不同方面的各类风险。然而目前绝大多数在建或运营 中的机构，都没有建立正确的风险管理意识，XS公司也是在之前的项目中因未做 好项目风险管理而遭受巨大经济损失后，对机动车检验机构风险管理，尤其是新建 项目的风险管理引起了重视。 本文以XS公司ZY检测站项目作为研究对象，对其项目实施过程进行了详细 的分解，过程中可能涉及到的风险进行了深入剖析。同时结合问卷调查和案例分析， 对项目风险进行了有效识别和评估，并有针对性地提出了应对策略和监控措施。 本文总共有七大部分，第一部分为绪论，主要描述了此次研究课题产生的行业 背景以及研究的意义。第二部分为理论综述部分。首先对风险、项目风险与项目风 险管理的相关知识进行了梳理，剖析了项目风险管理的特点，接着对国内外学者关 于项目风险管理的研究现状进行了梳理和总结，为接下来的写作奠定了理论基矗 第三部分首先介绍了XS公司现状和ZY检测站项目产生的企业背景，并对ZY检 测站项目进行了过程分解，明确了项目目标。接着通过成立风险管理小组、制定项 目管理章程进行了项目风险管理规划。第四部分采用头脑风暴法进行了项目风险 识别，结合风险分解结构法和流程图法对项目风险进行了归类与分析。第五部分采 用德尔菲法结合层次分析法，对识别出的项目风险进行了评估，并就评估结论对风 险进行了分类。第六部分在前文的基础上，有针对性地提出了各类风险的应对策略 和监控方式。最后在第七部分，对全文进行了总结，分析了文章中的不足之处。 关键词：机动车检测，检测站建站，风险管理，层次分析法 ABSTRACT II ABSTRACT As a mandatory requirement for vehicles on the road in China, the vehicle inspection work has been in the charge of the vehicle management office or traffic police brigade under the public security traffic department in the early years. However, in recent years, with the increasing number of motor vehicles in China, the scale of motor vehicle inspection and testing market has been expanding. Since 2000, the government has been promoting the socialization of motor vehicle inspection institutions throughout the country. Chengdu, as the top three city in terms of vehicle ownership in China, has been promoting the socialization of vehicle inspection institutions since 2010. In recent years, the social market has witnessed a booming development, especially in the past three years, the number of vehicle inspection institutions has shown an explosive growth under the stimulation of market charging policy adjustment and other factors. XS Company is a company specializing in the investment, construction, operation and management of vehicle inspection institutions. At present, it has several inspection institutions invested or managed in Sichuan, and plans to build another vehicle inspection institution project in Chengdu before 2021. As an organization that obtains China Inspection Body andLaboratory Mandatory Approval(CMA) and provides fair inspection data to the society, vehicle inspection organizations are faced with various risks from different aspects during project preparation, construction and operation. However, most of the organizations under construction or operation do not have a correct awareness of risk management now. XS Company pay attention to the risk management of vehicle inspection organizations, especially the risk management of new projects after suffered huge economic losses due to the failure of project risk management in the previous projects. Taking the project of XS company ZY inspection station as the research object, this paper has carried out a detailed decomposition of its project implementation process, and carried out an in-depth analysis of the possible risks involved in the process. At the same time, combined with questionnaire survey and case analysis, the project risk was effectively identified and evaluated, and the corresponding countermeasures and monitoring measures were proposed. There are seven parts in this paper. The first part is the introduction, which mainly ABSTRACT III describes the industry background and the significance of the research. The second part is the theory summary part. Firstly, the relevant knowledge of risk, project risk and project risk management is sorted out, and the characteristics of project risk management are analyzed. Then, the research status of project risk management by domestic and foreign scholars is sorted out and summarized, which lays a theoretical foundation for the following writing. The third part firstly introduces the current status of XS company and the enterprise background of ZY detection station project, and then decomposes the process of ZY test station project and clarifies the project objectives. Then the project risk management planning was carried out by establishing risk management team, establishing project management rules and identifying project risk sources. The fourth part USES the brainstorm method to carry on the project risk identification, combines the risk decomposition structure method and the flow chart method to carry on the classification and the analysis to the project risk. The fifth part adopts Delphi method and analytic hierarchy process to evaluate the identified project risks, and classifies the risks according to the evaluation conclusions. The sixth part, on the basis of the above, puts forward the corresponding strategies and monitoring methods of various risks. Finally, in the seventh part, it summarizes the whole paper, analyzes the shortcomings of the paper. Keywords: vehicle inspection,construction of inspection station,risk management,AHP 目录 IV 目 录 第一章 绪 论 ................. 1 1.1 研究背景与意义 1 1.1.1研究背景 ... 1 1.1.2研究意义 ... 1 1.2 研究内容和技术路线 ....................... 2 1.2.1 研究内容 .. 2 1.2.2 研究技术路线 ......................... 3 第二章 相关理论与研究现状 ....................... 4 2.1 相关理论 ............ 4 2.1.1 风险 ......... 4 2.1.2 项目风险 .. 5 2.1.3 项目风险管理 ......................... 6 2.2 国内外研究现状 8 2.2.1 国内研究现状 ......................... 8 2.2.2 国外研究现状 ......................... 9 2.3 本章小结 .......... 10 第三章 ZY检测站项目概况与项目风险规划 ........................... 12 3.1 ZY检测站项目概况 ........................ 12 3.1.1 ZY检测站项目产生的背景 .. 12 3.1.2 ZY检测站项目的可行性 ...... 13 3.1.3 ZY检测站项目介绍 .............. 15 3.1.4 ZY检测站项目风险管理过程 .............................. 16 3.2项目风险管理规划 .......................... 17 3.2.1 ZY检测站项目风险管理人员与分工 .................. 18 3.2.2 ZY检测站项目管理章程 ...... 18 3.2.3 ZY检测站项目过程分解 ...... 19 3.2.4 ZY检测站项目风险管理计划 .............................. 21 3.3 本章小结 .......... 21 第四章 ZY检测站项目风险识别 ............... 22 4.1 ZY检测站项目风险识别方法 ........ 22 目录 V 4.1.1 头脑风暴法 ........................... 22 4.1.2 风险分解结构法 ................... 24 4.1.3 流程图法 24 4.2 ZY检测站项目风险识别结果 ........ 24 4.2.1 ZY检测站项目风险源识别 .. 24 图4-1 项目风险源识别图 .................... 25 4.3 ZY检测站项目已识别风险分类 ..... 26 4.4 ZY检测站项目风险识别结果分析 . 27 4.4.1 管理风险 27 4.4.2 技术风险 28 4.4.3 财务风险 29 4.4.4 人事风险 29 4.4.5 市场风险 30 4.4.6 分析结果总结 ....................... 30 4.5 本章小结 .......... 31 第五章 ZY检测站项目风险评估 ............... 32 5.1 ZY检测站项目风险评估方法 ........ 32 5.1.1 层次分析法 ........................... 32 5.1.2 德尔菲法 34 5.1.3 风险坐标图 ........................... 34