I 摘要 高速公路基础设施是国家的支柱产业，也是促进社会和经济发展的重要支撑。 近年来，我国公路建设飞速发展，逐步改善了城际公路互联网，极大提高了地区 经济发展水平。“十三五”规划以来，我国高速公路建设迎来发展机遇期，相关 资料显示，我国公路里程数在 2018 年底是已经达到了 14.25 万公里，居世界首位。 由于我国是社会主义国家，特殊的国情使高速公路建设成为国家高度重视的基础 设施投资项目。随着国家不断提高重视程度，新投和新建的高速公路数量呈现上 升趋势，同时在建设规模和建设难度方面也逐步增加。与建设难度和规模并存的 问题是建设周期长及不确定因素增多，这些不利因素使得高速公路建设风险逐步 加大。 随着高速公路建设的不断发展，相关建设风险不断涌现，国家在项目建设风 险防范方面开始加深重视程度，着重关注项目建设中的风险管控和应对措施。同 时高速公路在整个项目开发过程中必须应对特别复杂的人类和自然环境，整个项 目在建设过程中周期长，技术要求程度高，整个管理的过程涉及到了物资、技术、 人员等多个方面，是一个持续管理的过程。且在管理的过程中项目涉及到的各种 内外部因素也处于一种动态变化的过程中，在创建项目时将经历某些习惯和随机 因素。这样的不确定性和改变这些不确定性的法律使高速公路项目的管理方法在 施工过程中变得更加复杂，自然为所有项目的风险管理提供了更高的规定。因此， 在高速公路项目的建设中，风险管理对于确保所有项目在建设过程中的顺利发展 和确保项目质量显得尤为重要。 本文主要是以基本建设项目风险管理与控制的基本理论为基础，根据基本建 设项目风险管理与控制的基本理论、风险分析、风险评估方法、风险防控措施等， 以 XX 高速公路新建工程为例。在对建设项目风险进行识别、评价和评价的基础 上，构建了风险实体模型，明确提出了公路投资风险管理方法中应注意的要点。 本文以 XX 高速公路为分析对象，本文使用风险分析的实体模型来确定 XX 公路基 本建设风险，现行政策和法律纠纷，业务风险，经济发展风险和管理风险的五个 主要风险因素，并参考相关文献来优化风险价值。一级风险指数分解以获得二级 风险指数值。根据权威专家的问卷调查方法，分析了 XX 高速公路的风险因素， 评价了投资风险指标值的相对必要性和安全风险从属程度。考虑到模糊数学评价 法指标权重赋值的客观性要求，利用层析分析模型对一二级风险指标权重进行求 解，规避了结果的主观性因素。通过分析，表明 XX 高速公路项目整体风险为较摘要 II 大级别，且各一二风险因素级别存在差异，鉴于高速公路风险管理对项目建设具 有重要影响，加强风险防范应对措施对于提升我国高速公路风险管理水平具有积 极意义。 关键词：高速公路，风险管理，风险识别，风险评价，风险应对ABSTRACT III ABSTRACT Expressway infrastructure is a pillar industry of the country and also an important support to promote social and economic development. In recent years, China's highway construction has developed rapidly, gradually improving the intercity highway Internet, greatly improving the level of regional economic development. Since the 13th Five-Year Plan, China's highway construction has ushered in a period of development opportunities. Relevant information shows that China's highway mileage had reached 142,500 kilometers by the end of 2018, ranking first in the world. As China is a socialist country, the special national conditions make expressway construction become the infrastructure investment project that the country attaches great importance to. With the increasing attention of the state, the number of newly invested and newly built expressways is on the rise, while the construction scale and construction difficulty are also gradually increasing. The problem that coexists with the difficulty and scale of construction is the long construction cycle and the increase of uncertain factors, which make the risk of expressway construction gradually increase. With the continuous development of expressway construction, relevant construction risks keep emerging, and the state starts to pay more attention to the risk prevention of project construction, focusing on the risk control and response measures in project construction. At the same time, the expressway must deal with the particularly complex human and natural environment in the whole project development process. The whole project has a long construction cycle and high technical requirements. The whole management process involves materials, technology, personnel and other aspects, which is a process of continuous management. In addition, various internal and external factors involved in the management of the project are also in a dynamic change process, and some habits and random factors will be experienced when the project is created. Such uncertainties and laws to change these uncertainties make the management methods of highway projects more complex during the construction process, which naturally provides higher provisions for the risk management of all projects. Therefore, in the construction of expressway project, risk management is particularly important to ensure the smooth development of all projects in the construction process and ensure the project quality. This paper is mainly based on the basic theory of risk management and control ofABSTRACT IV capital construction projects, based on the basic theory of risk management and control of capital construction projects, risk analysis, risk assessment methods, risk prevention and control measures, etc., taking XX expressway newly built project as an example. Based on the identification, evaluation and evaluation of the risks of construction projects, a risk entity model is established, and the key points that should be paid attention to in the risk management method of highway investment are put forward clearly. Taking XX expressway as the analysis object, this paper USES the entity model of risk analysis to determine the five main risk factors of XX highway capital construction risk, current policy and legal disputes, business risk, economic development risk and management risk, and refers to relevant literature to optimize the risk value. The level-1 risk index is decomposed to obtain the level-2 risk index value. According to the questionnaire survey method of authoritative experts, the risk factors of XX expressway are analyzed, and the relative necessity of investment risk index value and the degree of subordination of safety risk are evaluated. Considering the objective requirement of index weight assignment by fuzzy mathematical evaluation method, the first and second risk index weights are solved by using the tomographic analysis model, and the subjective factors of the results are avoided. Through analysis, it shows that the overall risk of XX expressway project is at a relatively high level, and there are differences in risk factor levels. In view of the important impact of expressway risk management on project construction, strengthening risk prevention and response measures is of positive significance for improving the level of China's expressway risk management. Keywords: Expressway, Risk management, Risk identification, Risk assessment, Risk response目 录 V 目 录 第一章 绪论....................... 1 1.1 研究背景和意义... 1 1.2 研究内容与方法... 2 1.2.1 研究内容..... 2 1.2.2 研究方法..... 3 1.3 文献综述............... 3 1.3.1 国外文献综述............................ 3 1.3.2 国内研究综述............................ 4 1.4 本章小节............... 6 第二章 相关理论及基本概念.......................... 7 2.1 风险概念及特征... 7 2.1.1 风险的概念. 7 2.1.2 风险的特征. 7 2.2 建设工程项目风险管理概述.............. 8 2.2.1 建设工程项目风险管理界定.... 8 2.2.2 建设工程项目风险特征............ 8 2.2.3 建筑工程项目风险管理整个过程......................... 10 2.3 风险管理理论.......11 2.3.1 风险识别理论............................11 2.3.2 风险评价理论.......................... 13 2.3.3 风险应对理论.......................... 15 2.4 本章小结............. 17 第三章 XX 高速公路项目风险识别 ............. 18 3.1 XX 高速公路项目基本情况 .............. 18 3.1.1 XX 高速公路总体概况 ............ 18 3.1.2 XX 高速公路项目组织管理体系 ........................... 19 3.1.3 XX 高速公路项目工程特点 .... 19 3.2 XX 高速公路项目风险识别 .............. 21 3.3 本章小结.............. 27 第四章 XX 高速公路项目风险评价 ............. 28目 录 VI 4.1 风险评价模型..... 28 4.1.1 层次分析法确定指标权重...... 28 4.1.2 模糊数学法评价风险....