I 摘要 当前，我国经济面临下行压力，政府引入PPP项目，不仅可以缓解政府财 政支出压力，还将社会资本方先进技术及设备、专业化管理、成熟的运营模式 带入项目。由于PPP项目规划、实施与政策密切相关，国外经验难以移植，社 会资本参与PPP项目问题凸显，其面临的财务风险问题愈加明显。因此以PPP 项目及社会资本方实际需求，开展财务风险识别、评估与控制是有必要的。 本文通过理论研究整理国内外PPP项目财务风险相关理论，对PPP项目各 参与方进行分析，总结出PPP项目政府方与社会资本方诉求不同，因而财务风 险各不相同。政府方的财务风险侧重财政承受能力风险与物有所值风险，而社 会资本方的财务风险需要从筹资、投资、经营与其他等四方面财务风险逐一进 行分析，最终在财务风险导致的损失与项目收益之间做出权衡取舍。本文引入 蒙特卡洛模拟法，通过计算机构建精确联动的财务评价模型，将筹资风险、投 资风险、经营风险、其他风险导致的结果量化在财务评价模型中。会计恒等式 为效验规则，确保数据间勾稽关系正确。通过蒙特卡洛模拟法，运用计算机实 现大量数据模拟计算，对上述财务风险进行评估，得出对未来收益、内部收益 率具有较高敏感度的财务风险。以便社会资本方逐一针对风险做出应对措施。 根据以上研究本文对作者实际经历的PPP项目开展案例分析，实施风险分析、 评估并提出控制措施，针对分析结果提出社会资本方能够承受的融资成本的上 限最高为基准利率上浮10%；能够承受的投资金额不能超出77123.83万元。外 部风险导致的投资失控应当及时转嫁；筹备阶段社会资本方应该制定精准的财 务预算；建设阶段可以参照常规的施工项目开展成本控制，分年度、季度、月 度报送预算与工程计量表，开展对比分析做好执行监督工作；与政府方协商时 应当争取由政府方补偿或顺延项目进度，合理确定绩效考核系数等。 本文研究的理论及操作方法有助于社会资本方有效识别、评估、控制财务 风险，其中提出的蒙特卡洛模拟法可以有效解决风险评估难以量化的困难，将 理论研究平滑过渡到实际应用。帮助社会资本方精准量化风险，解决学术研究 与落地应用。为未来社会资本方参与PPP项目提供一定的参考。 关键词：PPP；社会资本方；财务风险；风险控制；蒙特卡洛模拟法 PPP项目社会资本方财务风险识别及控制研究：以A镇Q项目为例 II ABSTRACT At present, economy of China is facing downward pressure. PPP projects can not only easing the pressure on government fiscal expenditures, but also bring advanced technologies and equipment from social capital party, professional management, and mature operating models. Because the planning and implementation of PPP projects are closely related to policies, it is difficult to transplant foreign experience. The problem of social capital participation in PPP projects is prominent, and the financial risk problems are becoming more and more obvious. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out financial risk identification, assessment and control based on the actual needs of PPP projects and social capital parties. This article sorts out the financial risk related theories of PPP projects at home and abroad through theoretical research, and analyzes the participants of PPP projects. It is concluded that the government and social capital parties of PPP projects have different demands, so the financial risks are different. The financial risk of the government side focuses on financial affordability risk and value-for-money risk, while the financial risk of the social capital side needs to be analyzed one by one from the financial risks of financing, investment, operation, and other aspects. Ultimately the social capital side should make a trade-off between losses caused by financial risks and project benefits. In this paper, Monte Carlo simulation method is introduced, and an accurate linkage financial evaluation model is constructed by computer. The results of financing risk, investment risk, operating risk, and other risks are quantified in the financial evaluation model. In this paper, accounting identities are used as validation rules to ensure that the correlation between data is correct. By using Monte Carlo simulation method and computer software to realize a large number of data simulation calculations, the above financial risks are evaluated, and financial risks with high sensitivity to future returns and internal rate of return are obtained. This can help the social capital side to formulate countermeasures against risks one by one. Based on the above research, this article conducts a case analysis of the PPP project that the author actually experienced. A risk analysis, assessment and control measures were carried out. Based on the analysis results, it was proposed that the upper limit of the financing cost that the social capital party can bear is a 10% increase in the benchmark interest rate; the amount of ABSTRACT III investment that can be sustained cannot exceed 771.2383 million yuan. The out-of- control investment caused by external risks should be passed on in a timely manner; the social capital side in the preparation stage should formulate a precise financial budget. During the construction phase, the social capital party can carry out cost control with reference to conventional construction projects, submit budgets and project measurement tables annually, quarterly, and monthly, and carry out comparative analysis to perform implementation supervision. When negotiating with the government, they should strive for compensation or Defer project progress and reasonably determine performance appraisal coefficients. The theories and methods studied in this article help the social capital side to effectively identify, evaluate, and control financial risks. The Monte Carlo simulation method used in this paper solves the difficulty of quantifying the risk assessment, which effectively smoothes the theoretical research into practical applications. Help the social capital side accurately quantify risks and solve academic research and landing applications. Provide some reference for future social capital parties to participate in PPP projects. Key Words: PPP; Social capital; Financial risk; Risk control; Monte Carlo method PPP项目社会资本方财务风险识别及控制研究：以A镇Q项目为例 IV 目 录 摘要 ........ I ABSTRACT ....... II 第一章 绪 论 1 第一节 研究背景及意义 ........................ 1 一、研究背景 ...................... 1 二、研究意义 ...................... 2 第二节 文献综述 ........................ 2 一、国外相关研究动态 ...... 3 二、国内相关研究动态 ...... 5 三、文献评述 ...................... 8 第三节 研究思路与论文结构 9 一、研究思路 ...................... 9 二、论文结构 .................... 10 第二章 PPP模式概述及在我国的发展历程 ...... 12 第一节 PPP模式的基本概念、特征及分类 . 12 一、PPP概念 ..................... 12 二、PPP模式的特征 ......... 12 三、PPP的分类 ................. 13 第二节 PPP模式在我国的发展历程 ............... 16 一、探索阶段 .................... 16 二、迅速发展阶段 ............ 16 三、规范化发展阶段 ........ 17 第三章 PPP模式社会资本方财务风险及其识别 .. 18 第一节 财务风险概述 ............ 18 一、财务风险概念 ............ 18 二、财务风险基本特征 .... 18 第二节 PPP项目社会资本方财务风险主要内容 ...................... 19 一、融资风险 .................... 20 二、投资风险 .................... 21 三、经营风险 .................... 22 目 录 V 四、其他财务风险 ............ 23 第三节 财务风险识别 ............ 23 一、常见财务风险识别的优缺点 ................... 24 二、PPP项目财务风险 ..... 24 第四章 PPP模式财务风险评估与控制 .................. 26 第一节 财务风险量化评估 ... 26 一、构建PPP财务评价模型 ........................... 26 二、选取风险影响因素及评价指标 ............... 28 三、量化评估财务风险 .... 30 第二节 财务风险控制 ............ 31 一、融资风险控制措施 .... 32 二、投资风险控制措施 .... 33 三、运营风险控制措施 .... 34 四、其他财务风险控制措施 ........................... 36 第五章 A镇Q项目案例分析 .. 37 第一节 项目背景介绍 ............ 37 一、项目内容、实施方式及产权归属 ........... 37 二、项目融资结构及回报机制 ....................... 38 三、政府方设定的项目合作条件 ................... 38 第二节 财务风险影响识别与量化评估 .......... 38 一、选取风险影响因素与评估指标 ............... 38 二、构建财务评价模型 .... 39 三、财务风险量化评估与控制 ....................... 40 第三节 社会资本方财务风险控制 ................... 49 一、筹资风险控制 ............ 49 二、投资风险控制 .....