我国城市商业银行经历了 20 多年的发展，现在规模已经位居我国银行业的第 三位。当前，全球经济维持复苏态势，新兴经济体保持较快增长，我国经济运行 平稳、稳中有进，新旧增长动能加快转换，金融改革深入推进，金融监管不断趋 严，加上利率市场化、互联网金融快速发展及金融脱媒等背景下，面对城市商业 银行整体利润增速下降的问题，城市商业银行应该如何在错综复杂的内外部形势 下优化盈利模式、调整经营策略，扭转局势稳步向高质量发展过渡就显得尤为重 要。 本文以城市商业银行盈利能力影响因素作为研究目标，阐述研究背景、意义， 简述了国内外相关商业银行盈利能力研究文献和成果，概述了城市商业银行盈利 能力相关指标概念、影响因素，通过详细分析近年来城市商业银行监管指标的变 化情况得出城商行盈利现状、存在问题和原因，我国城市商业银行盈利来源主要 依靠传统利差收入，存在整体盈利模式单一、资金使用效率较差、中间业务发展 缓慢及产品创新能力较弱等问题。而后通过选取 2009 年到 2018 年我国 15 家上市 城市商业银行的 11 个指标进行了面板数据实证分析，从而得出提升我国城市商业 银行盈利能力的建议。我国城市商业银行应通过优化公司治理结构、加快金融科 技布局、完善人本兴行管理、积极布局零售业务、推动中间业务发展、发掘自身 竞争优势、打造特色发展战略、加快新旧动能转换、加大资本融资力度等途径来 提高城商行的盈利能力和综合实力。 关键词：盈利能力，城市商业银行，提升，面板数据分析II Abstract After more than 20 years of development, China's urban commercial Banks are now the third largest in China's banking industry. At present, the global economic recovery, emerging economies to maintain rapid growth, the economy running smoothly and steadily in our country have entered, the kinetic energy to speed up the transformation of old and new growth, financial reform deepening, financial regulation increasingly severe, plus interest rate marketization, the Internet under the background of financial development and financial disintermediation, faced with the problem of the city commercial bank profit growth is decreasing, city commercial Banks should be how to adjust business strategy, to reverse the situation, under the complex internal and external situation optimized profit model, it is very important to make the transition to high quality development steadily. Based on the city commercial bank profitability factors as the research target, this paper research background, significance, introduced the domestic and foreign related literature and results in the study of commercial bank profitability outlined the city commercial bank profitability indicators related concept, influence factors, through detailed analysis in recent years, city commercial bank supervision index changes of the city business profit status quo, problems and reasons, our country city commercial bank profit sources rely mainly on traditional interest income, overall profit model of a single, low service efficiency of funds, the slow development of intermediary business and product innovation ability is weak, and so on. Then, by selecting 11 indicators of 15 listed city commercial Banks in China from 2009 to 2018, empirical analysis of panel data is conducted, and Suggestions for improving the profitability of city commercial Banks in China are obtained. City commercial Banks in China should by optimizing corporate governance structure, to speed up financial technology layout, improve the humanistic hing line management, active layout retail business, the development of intermediary business, explore their own competitive advantage, build characteristic development strategy, speed up the old and the new kinetic energy transformation, increase the intensity of capital financing and other ways to improve the profit ability and the comprehensive strength of city firms. Key words：Profitability, City commercial banks, Improve,Panel data analysisIII 目 录 第一章 绪论 ........................................................ 1 1.1 研究背景和研究意义 ........................................... 1 1.1.1 研究背景 ............................................... 1 1.1.2 研究意义 ............................................... 3 1.2 文献综述 ..................................................... 3 1.2.1 利率市场化对商业银行的影响方面的研究 ................... 3 1.2.2 商业银行盈利能力优化动因的相关研究 ..................... 4 1.3 研究内容与研究方法 ........................................... 5 1.3.1 研究内容 ............................................... 5 1.3.2 研究方法 ............................................... 5 1.4 本文的创新与不足 ............................................. 6 1.4.1 创新之处 ............................................... 6 1.4.2 不足之处 ............................................... 6 第二章 城市商业银行盈利现状分析 .................................... 7 2.1 城市商业银行盈利能力的概念 ................................... 7 2.1.1 盈利能力 ............................................... 7 2.1.2 商业银行盈利能力 ....................................... 7 2.1.3 衡量商业银行盈利能力指标 ............................... 8 2.2 城市商业银行发展现状分析 ..................................... 9 2.2.1 规模增速趋势放缓，业务发展回归本源 ..................... 9 2.2.2 经营质量效果总体稳定，盈利基础稳中下滑 ................ 11 2.2.3 资产质量显著下降风险抵补能力有待加强 .................. 13 2.2.4 城商行品牌价值不断提升 ................................ 17 2.2.5 发展分化日渐明显 ...................................... 17 2.3 我国城市商业银行盈利现状及原因分析 .......................... 18 2.3.1 我国城市商业银行盈利现状 .............................. 18 2.3.2 我国城市商业银行盈利现状成因分析 ...................... 18 2.4 我国城市商业银行盈利现状存在问题 ............................ 19 2.4.1 对存贷差过分依赖，盈利模式传统单一 .................... 19IV 2.4.2 缺乏专业技术人才，科技建设及产品研发能力不强 .......... 19 2.4.3 资产质量急需改善，风险管理能力较弱 .................... 20 2.4.4 异地机构发展缓慢，资本补充渠道狭窄 .................... 20 第三章 城市商业银行盈利能力影响因素分析 ........................... 22 3.1 内部因素 .................................................... 22 3.1.1 资产规模 .............................................. 22 3.1.2 资产质量 .............................................. 22 3.1.3 营运效率 .............................................. 22 3.1.4 流动性状况 ............................................ 23 3.1.5 业务结构 .............................................. 23 3.2 外部因素 .................................................... 24 3.2.1 宏观经济状况 .......................................... 24 3.2.2 互联网金融 ............................................ 24 第四章 实证分析 ................................................... 25 4.1 样本的选取 .................................................. 25 4.2 影响盈利能力因素指标选取 .................................... 25 4.2.1 被解释变量 ............................................ 25 4.2.2 解释变量 .............................................. 26 4.3 建立回归模型 ................................................ 28 4.4 运用 stata 软件进行统计分析 .................................. 28 4.4.1 变量的描述性统计 ...................................... 28 4.4.2 数据平稳性检验 ........................................ 29 4.4.3 变量的协整检验 ........................................ 30 4.4.4 模型的建立 ............................................ 30 4.4.5 模型的回归 ............................................ 32 4.4.6 模型的稳健性检验 ...................................... 34 第五章 提升我国城市商业银行盈利能力的建议 ......................... 36 5.1 拓展多种资本补充渠道，加强服务实体经济能力 .................. 36 5.2 强化风险管理机制，注重企业形象树立 .......................... 36 5.3 积极布局零售业务，大力发展中间业务 .......................... 37 5.3.1 健全零售业务条线，打造财富管理升级 .................... 37 5.3.2 加大中间业务发展，带动盈利模式转型 .................... 38 5.4 严格预算管理机制，强化成本控制约束 .......................... 40V 5.5 加快金融科技布局，推动网点转型发展 .......................... 40 5.5.1 强化科技战略兴行，加强科技基础建设 .................... 40 5.5.2 坚持