经济发展，电力先行。时至今日，我国还是以燃煤火电为主。在煤炭开采、洗选加 工过程中产生了为数不少的煤矸石，占用土地、污染环境。 BXE 公司是一家以新能源电力为核心的上市公司，计划投资新建一座 2x300MW 循 环硫化床资源综合利用煤矸石的发电厂。本文是针对该公司 2x300MW 发电项目而撰写 的投资商业计划书，拟为该公司申请该项目贷款或获取风险投资提供依据，提高该公司 投资决策的科学性及项目效益。 本文首先分析项目所在地—广东省梅州市的电力市场，对项目所处的行业环境和市 场空间进行探讨。其次分析影响项目效益的主要因素--燃料的市场环境和运输条件，对 项目的燃料采购点、运输方案进行探讨。然后运用技术工艺对比分析确定项目工艺的选 取，提出发电主设备技术条件。接着运用项目分析与估值、财务管理办法对项目效益进 行分析和评价，最后进行项目风险分析并提出预防措施。 本文根据分析研究得出结论，该项目所在电力市场需求空间较为广阔，煤矸石及无 烟煤采购市场稳定，利用循环硫化床技术综合利用煤矸石发电经济效益高、社会效益好， 能够获得国家政策支持，项目优势明显，具有技术上可行、风险可控、盈利能力较好的 特点。综合各种因素来看，该项目值得投资。 关键词，煤矸石发电；商业计划书；效益；风险II Abstract Electric power is in advance with economic development. Today, China is still mainly in the coal-fired power. A large number of coal gangue have been produced in the coal mining, washing and processing process, which occupy the land and pollute the environment. BXE is a company with a new energy as the core of the listing Corporation, plans to invest in a new 2x300MW power plant which comprehensive utilizate coal gangue by circulating fluidized bed. This paper is an investment business plan which aimed at the project 2x300MW power of the company, to provide the basis for the company to apply for the loan or getting a venture capital investment, to improve the science of investment decisions and project benefit. Power market firstly, where the project is located in Meizhou City, Guangdong, is discusses with the industry environment and market space of the project. Secondly, fuel market environment and fuel transportation condition are analyzed which are the main factors to influence the benefit of project, and the project procurement, fuel transportation scheme are carried on the discussion. Then project process is selected using the technology comparative analysis, and the generation conditions of the main equipment are put forward. Then financial management analysis and evaluation of the project benefits are done using the project analysis and valuation. At last the project risk is analyzed and preventive measures are put forward. Based on the analysis of research, the electric power market demand space of the project is relatively broad, coal gangue and anthracite coal procurement market is stability, comprehensive utilization of coal gangue power generation using the circulating fluidized bed technology can get high economic benefit, good social benefit, and the project can get the support of the national policy, so the project have the characteristics of obvious advantages, technical feasibility, risk control, better profitability. Integrated a variety of factors, the project investment is worth. Keywords: coal gangue power generation; business plan; benefit; riskIII 目 录 摘要.....I ABSTRACT .II 图表清单....VI 第一章 绪 论..1 1.1 选题背景 ..... 1 1.2 研究目的和意义 ..... 1 1.2.1 研究目的.... 1 1.2.2 研究意义.... 2 1.3 文献综述 ..... 3 1.4 总体思路及分析方法 ... 6 第二章 项目摘要....7 2.1 公司简介 ..... 7 2.2 项目建设基本方案 . 8 2.2.1 本期项目方案.. 8 2.2.2 前期项目简况.. 9 2.3 管理团队 ..... 9 2.3.1 项目组织结构.. 9 2.3.2 主要岗位职责及人选 10 第三章 电力市场需求分析....12 3.1 宏观经济 ... 12 3.1.1 宏观经济发展现状.... 12 3.1.2 宏观经济发展预测.... 13 3.2 电力市场 ... 14 3.2.1 电力系统现状 14 3.2.2 电力需求预测 15 3.3 电力平衡 ... 16 3.3.1 电源规划.. 16 3.3.2 电力平衡结果 17 3.4 项目市场空间 . 18IV 第四章 项目主要技术方案分析..19 4.1 发电燃料分析 . 19 4.1.1 煤矸石特性.... 19 4.1.2 煤矸石综合利用.. 20 4.1.3 煤矸石供应.... 21 4.1.4 无烟煤供应.... 22 4.1.5 燃料运输.. 23 4.2 主设备选型分析 ... 24 4.2.1 锅炉选型.. 24 4.2.2 汽轮机、发电机选型 25 4.2.3 三大主机技术条件.... 26 第五章 项目财务分析28 5.1 投资估算 ... 28 5.1.1 项目工程概况 28 5.1.2 主要工艺系统特征.... 28 5.1.3 定额及费用依据.. 29 5.1.4 项目投资估算 30 5.1.5 项目造价合理性分析 30 5.2 项目结构和资金筹措 . 31 5.3 项目基准收益率 ... 31 5.3.1 无风险投资收益率 Rf..... 31 5.3.2 平均投资收益率 Rm . 31 5.3.3 项目风险系数 βi.. 32 5.3.4 股本投资收益率.. 33 5.3.5 基准收益率.... 33 5.4 项目经营成本与收入.. 34 5.4.1 经营分析参数 34 5.4.2 经营成本估算 35 5.4.3 经营收入估算 35 5.5 项目净现值 NPV .. 36V 5.6 主要经济效益指标汇总 ... 36 5.7 项目敏感性分析 ... 36 5.8 项目财务评价 . 37 第六章 项目风险分析39 6.1 政府支持度风险 ... 39 6.2 关键相关行业发展风险 ... 40 6.3 运营水平风险 . 41 6. 4 环境保护风险 42 结 论..45