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麦格理_美股_投资策略_闲话2019:都是价格问题_2019.1.23_44页

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。Macquarie Research Trash Talk 201923 January 2019 2Pricing Could Run 3%+…In the exhibits below, we show that the waste sector tends to outperform the market when pricing isabove 2% assuming a stable volume environment. We believe we are entering 2019 in a period wherepricing gains could run 3%+ with underlying volumes in the ~1.0-1.5% range which would suggestwaste stocks should outperform the market. Having said that, certain fears around a US housing cycledownturn, ability to control cost inflation and capital allocation are key concerns which could limit stockprice appreciation. We get comfortable with which each of the above items in report. Fig 1 Price Momentum Drives Waste PerformanceWaste Price and Volume on right axisSource: FactSet, Company data, Macquarie Capital (USA), January 2019It is also important to keep in mind that greater pricing tends to result in multiple expansion for thespace (we tend to look at FCF multiples as the best valuation gauge). Given that the sector is alsosignificantly more consolidated today than pre-crisis (2009 downturn) levels also suggests furtherpricing discipline in the system. 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% Q1 /0 3 Q4 /0 3 Q3 /0 4 Q2 /0 5 Q1 /0 6 Q4 /0 6 Q3 /0 7 Q2 /0 8 Q1 /0 9 Q4 /0 9 Q3 /1 0 Q2 /1 1 Q1 /1 2 Q4 /1 2 Q3 /1 3 Q2 /1 4 Q1 /1 5 Q4 /1 5 Q3 /1 6 Q2 /1 7 Q1 /1 8 Q4 /1 8 -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% Excess Returns over S&P 500 q/q (NTM Avg)Average Waste Price Growth y/y -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% Q1 /0 3 Q4 /0 3 Q3 /0 4 Q2 /0 5 Q1 /0 6 Q4 /0 6 Q3 /0 7 Q2 /0 8 Q1 /0 9 Q4 /0 9 Q3 /1 0 Q2 /1 1 Q1 /1 2 Q4 /1 2 Q3 /1 3 Q2 /1 4 Q1 /1 5 Q4 /1 5 Q3 /1 6 Q2 /1 7 Q1 /1 8 Q4 /1 8 -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% Excess Returns over S&P 500 q/q (NTM Avg)Average Waste Volume Growth y/y Macquarie Research Trash Talk 201923 January 2019 3Fig 2 Waste Pricing Also Drives Multiple Expansion Source: Company data, Macquarie Capital (USA), January 2019Fig 3 Market Share Post Industry Consolidation- A Rational OligopolySource: Company data, Macquarie Capital (USA), January 2019- x 5.0x 10.0x 15.0x 20.0x 25.0x 30.0x 35.0x 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% Q4 /0 6 Q2 /0 7 Q4 /0 7 Q2 /0 8 Q4 /0 8 Q2 /0 9 Q4 /0 9 Q2 /1 0 Q4 /1 0 Q2 /1 1 Q4 /1 1 Q2 /1 2 Q4 /1 2 Q2 /1 3 Q4 /1 3 Q2 /1 4 Q4 /1 4 Q2 /1 5 Q4 /1 5 Q2 /1 6 Q4 /1 6 Q2 /1 7 Q4 /1 7 Q2 /1 8 Q4 /1 8 Average Waste Price Growth y/yAverage FCF Multiple WM 26% RSG 7% WCN 2%BIN 2%Allied 12%Other Public 4% Municipalities 23% Privates 24% 2008 WM 25% RSG 18% WCN 8% Other Public 9% Municipalities 23% Privates 17% 2017 Macquarie Research Trash Talk 201923 January 2019 4Should I Be Worried About a Housing SlowdownImpacting Waste Not If Commercial and Overall PricingHolds UpThe major public companies did tout US housing a significant benefit in the upcycle so naturally whensingle family housing starts come under pressure, investors wonder what the impact in a housingdown-cycle could look like. Recall RSG has a dedicated slide which shows below that US single familyhousing start growth is highly correlated to volumes with a 1 year lag. Companies believe thisrelationship exists because they are levered to the health of the consumer (if consumers feel good,they buy new houses, remodel, go out to eat and shop more… all of which creates trash) and thespace is late-cycle (hence the 1-yr lag).Fig 4 Volume Leverage to US Housing2018: WCN negative due to deliberate account sheddingSource: FRED, Company data, Macquarie Capital (USA), January 2019Fig 5US Housing Starts ForecastsSource: FRED, Company data, Macquarie Capital (USA), January 2019-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% RSG VolumeWM Volume WCN VolumeADSW Volume Single Family Housing Starts (1-Yr lag) 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 19 70 19 72 19 74 19 76 19 78 19 80 19 82 19 84 19 86 19 88 19 90 19 92 19 94 19 96 19 98 20 00 20 02 20 04 20 06 20 08 20 10 20 12 20 14 20 16 20 18 E 20 20 E 1 unitMultiAverage Since 1970 。。。。。。