Copyright (C) 2018 JETRO. All rights reserved. 2JETRO Global Trade and Investment Report 2018SummaryGlobal trade ■In 2017, world trade (trade in goods, nominal export value) increased by 10.5% to$17.3 trillion (JETRO estimate) compared with the previous year and saw positivegrowth for the first time in three years. In particular, growth in commodity-relatedproducts, reflecting an increase in prices, and growth in semiconductor-related productsresulted in remarkable increases. The trade volume (export basis) also increased by 4.5%.Both the value and volume of world trade showed its highest growth since 2011. ■In the first quarter of 2018, the trade value of goods (from 34 major economies)increased by double digits, at 13.3% for exports and 14.6% forimportsover the sameperiod the previous year.A chain of restrictive measures on trade, however,has raisedconcerns of a downside risk. ■In 2017, Japan’s export amounted to $697.2 billion, up 8.2%, while imports alsoincreased by 10.5% to $671.0 billion from the previous year. This remarkable growth trend resulted in increasing the trade surplus ($26.3 billion) for the second consecutiveyear. Exports of general machinery such as semiconductor manufacturing equipmentwere especially strong, with the recovery of global investment.Foreign direct investment (FDI) ■Japan’s outward FDI in 2017 decreased by 3.0% from the previous year to $168.6billion (on a balance of payment basis, net, flow). This shows a slight decrease from itspeak in 2016, but it still remains the second highest level on record. There are signs ofre-expansion of previously stagnant business by Japanese firms in China. ■Looking at the share of world outward FDI stock by country/region, it is observedthat the presence of emerging and developing economies, especially China, asinvestment sources is increasing year by year. There is rising concern regardingcorporate acquisitions in Europe and North America by Chinese enterprises, while theChinese government is also strengthening control over outward investment. Asiancompanies, such as those of China, are expanding their presence in investment in Japan, such as capital participation or the sharing business.Copyright (C) 2018 JETRO. All rights reserved. 3World trade policies■While the pace of FTAs going into force around the world has declined, two majorFTAs that will have asignificant economic impact, the EU-Japan EPA and TPP 11, arecoming into effect. As Japan pays tariffs of about $2.6 billion per year in exports to theEU(JETRO estimate), thereareexpectations for the reduction of tariff costs. ■The total number of anti-dumping investigations initiated by all WorldTrade Organization(WTO) members remains at a high level.In addition to the extensiveapplication of the conventional trade remedies such as anti-dumping measures, the tradepolicy implemented by the US includesunilateral measures based on domestic law. Theexistence of the multilateral trade system which shares a common foundation with therules of WTO has been shakenics: Global economy connected via digitalization ■Within global digital trade, cross-border e-commerce and data flows grew moreremarkably than goods and services. “Digital-related trade in goods” (export basis,JETRO estimate) accounted for 17.0% ($2.95 trillion, 2017) of the world’s total trade,and in recent years, old digital-related goodsare giving way to the new. While theoverall presence of Japan in the export of digital-related goods worldwide is declining,Japan has maintained the world’s largest share of exports of semiconductormanufacturing equipment and industrial robots since 2007. ■Globalcross-border greenfield investment and cross-border M&A transactions bydigital-related companies are increasing. While the US occupies the largest share (basedon the number of projects/deals) in both cases, the share of emerging and developingcountries which are proactively developing business outside of their borders, such asChina, is expanding. ■The United States, which is home to the world's major digital companies, haspromoted the liberalization of digital trade through FTAs. Meanwhile, the EU isproactively promoting the formation of digital-related rules even in non-trade fields suchas competition policy and tax reform. And China is imposing stringent domesticrestrictions on foreign capital investment. These facts demonstrate how digital tradepolicy differs in each country. Under these circumstances, exploratory work towardstarting discussions on e-commerce by like-minded countries has been launched in theWTO and is drawing attention as an indication of the significance of multilateral ruleformation for trade. Copyright (C) 2018 JETRO. All rights reserved.-30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 Export value Nominal growth rate (right axis) Real growth rate (right axis)（Billion USD）(%) Source: JETRO's estimates basedon the trade sitatistics of respective countries, and WTO data (year) 4 Global trade 1：Global trade in 2017 shows upward trend for first time in three years ■In 2017, world trade (merchandise trade, nominal export value) increased by 10.5% to $17.3 trillion(JETRO estimate) compared with the previous year, seeing positive growth for the first time in three years. This is due to acceleration of global economic growth and increased commodity prices (especially those of fueland metal). The trade volume (export basis) also increased by 4.5%from the previous year. Both the value andvolume ofworld tradeshowed its highest growth since 2011. ■At the same time, the world’s import volume growth amounted to 1.3 times that of the world economicgrowth rate, implying a departure from the “slow trade” of the previous five years. (All figures are percentages, unless indicated at the end of column) 20132014201520162017 185,434186,160161,820156,685173,162 3.10.4-13.1-3.210.5 2.62.42.31.64.5 0.5-2.0-15.0-4.75.8 188,830189,638164,879160,132177,458 1.70.4-13.1-2.910.8 2.22.92.72.04.8 -0.5-2.4-15.3-4.85.7 0.52.10.30.32.5 -1.6-7.4-44.8-16.523.4 -0.9-7.5-47.2-15.723.3 -3.7-3.0-33.2-34.516.4 -4.3-10.1-23.0-5.422.2 5.3-28.1-42.44.321.4 -0.7-2.1-15.91.81.0 2.22.515.30.2-1.0 Industrial production index growth rate (developed countries) Food and beverage price index growth rate Fuel price index growth rate Crude oil price growth rate Nominal growth rate Real growth rate Price growth rate Natural gas price growth rate Metal price index growth rate Iron ore price growth rate World trade (export) (100 mil USD) Nominal growth rate Real growth rate Price growth rate World trade (import) (100 mil USD) Growth of nominal effective dollar exchange rateTrends in world trade (export basis) World trade related indicators Note: 1) Both trade values and nominal growth rates are estimated by JETRO. See Appendix AnnnotationII regarding the method of estimation.2) The real growth rate is from the WTO. 3) The price growth rate was caluculatedby dividing the nominal value by volume index. 4) Allcommodity prices are indicated in the growth rate of the annual average. Crude oil prices are the average of Dubai, Brent andWTI. Natural gasprices are from the Europe/Japan/US index. Iron ore prices are the import prices at China's CFR Tianjin port. Source: Trade statistics of respective economies, IFS (June 4, 2018) (IMF), WEO, April 2018 (IMF), and WTO data 。。。。。。