Chinese Views on the Trump Administration’s Asia Policy
Michael D. Swaine
Authoritative and non-authoritative Chinese commentaries on the Trump
administration’s foreign policy have tended to avoid making hostile
remarks in response to some notable U.S. provocations. This cautious
stance most likely reflects at least three factors. First, the Chinese now
recognize that presidential campaigns often produce aggressive rhetoric,
but a new administration eventually moderates its stance in the face of
practical constraints. Second, the upcoming 19th Party Congress in fall
2017 strongly indicates the need for Beijing to avoid taking any actions
that could generate a foreign policy crisis. Third, the Chinese probably
believe that Trump is ultimately someone who will take a pragmatic and
transactional approach toward the Sino-American relationship. The current
Chinese viewpoint, however, could darken considerably if Washington or
Beijing adopt confrontational stances toward sensitive and potentially
volatile foreign policy issues such as North Korea, Taiwan, or the South
China Sea.
In
CLM
50, we examined Chinese views on presidential candidates Hillary R. Clinton
and Donald J. Trump. In this issue, we take a close look at Chinese views toward
President Trump’s policies toward Asia and China. The period covered begins with
Trump’s election on November 8, 2016, and ends with the presidential summit between
President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping, held at Trump’s Mar-A-Lago resort
April 6–7.
As in previous
Monitor
articles, Chinese views in this essay are divided into authoritative
and non-authoritative statements and actions. Five main foreign policy subjects are
covered: 1) the state of overall current and future U.S.-China relations; 2) economic and
trade policy, especially involving China; 3) the Taiwan issue; 4) the ongoing North Korea
nuclear weapons crisis; and 5) maritime disputes in the South and East China Seas. The
article ends with an assessment of the main features and trends of those views and their
possible implications for the future.
Chinese Views and Statements
General Characterizations of Future and Current U.S.-China Relations under Trump
Overall, authoritative Chinese sources have been remarkably positive and upbeat in
assessing the current and future tenor of the bilateral relationship, with a few partial
exceptions.
*I am indebted to Benjamin Lee for his assistance in the preparation of this article.
Swaine,
China Leadership Monitor
, no. 53For example, following his election on November 8, senior Chinese officials gave no
indication of any tension, worries, or suspicions regarding candidate Donald Trump’s
often-negative campaign views of China.
A congratulatory message from Xi Jinping stated:
Attaching great importance to China-U.S. relations, I look forward to
working with you to, in the principle of non-conflict, non-confrontation,
mutual respect and win-win cooperation, expand bilateral cooperation in
all fields at bilateral, regional and global levels, manage and control
differences in a constructive way, push bilateral relations for greater
progress at a new starting point and better benefit the two peoples and
people of all countries.1
Variations on this statement have been made by authoritative sources many times since
then.2
In accentuating the positive, authoritative sources have at times stressed the unchanging,
foundational elements of U.S.-China relations in the aftermath of Donald Trump’s
election. These include “huge common interests,” mutual opportunities, popular
expectations in both countries of continued development, and expectations in the
international community for the two countries to “play a constructive role in maintaining
world peace, development, and stability.”3
Chinese optimism was arguably increased further when Secretary of State Rex Tillerson
repeated, while in Beijing, the above phrasing Beijing uses to describe the goals of the
relationship, involving the search for greater cooperation based on “no conflict, no
confrontation, mutual respect and win-win cooperation.”4
And the apparent love-fest continued through the April 6–7 Mar-a-Lago summit.
Following that event, Wang Yi stated:
This summit has become a stabilizing force for U.S.-China relations as
well as a new opening for the bilateral relationship.5
In line with this approach, any problems in the relationship have been downplayed by
authoritative sources. For example, in responding to general questions regarding Trump’s
critical or hostile tweets about China, Foreign Ministry spokespersons have usually
avoided negative statements, stressing instead the need to continue working to deepen
mutual understanding and produce mutually beneficial results.6
Many non-authoritative sources have echoed the above optimistic take on U.S.-China
relations of authoritative sources, albeit at times with a more decidedly cautious note.
Indeed, one scholar remarked, right after Trump’s election:
Chinese observers are cautiously optimistic about Sino-U.S. relations
Swaine,
China Leadership Monitor
, no. 53under an administration of president-elect Donald Trump. Most of
Trump’s comments regarding China are election rhetoric and have no
feasibility at all.7
This caution was understandably more evident prior to Trump’s inauguration, given the
many critical or hostile tweets about China he made during the presidential campaign. At
the time of his inauguration, one non-authoritative source expressed the hope that Trump
would dispel the “doubts and worries” he had created by showing “a sense of
responsibility that matches his power. . . . Trump and his advisors should avoid the
mistake of going too far.”8
Some observers were more even-handed in what they expected from the relationship.
One stated:
Both countries must master the direction of China-U.S. relations. The two
countries should not attempt to “coerce” the opposite party, but should
pursue win-win and multiple win cooperation.9
In contrast, non-authoritative sources have also been direct and confrontational when
commenting on Trump’s criticisms of China. As always, the more hardline
Global Times
expressed a particularly strong view:
We must confront Trump’s provocations head-on, and make sure he won’t
take advantage of China at the beginning of his tenure. We must struggle
with Trump’s provocations with reason and strength, and make sure that
he will not gain any real benefit during the beginning of his tenure.10
Yet many scholars, including military ones, became especially optimistic following
Tillerson’s repeat of China’s phrasing during his Beijing visit, noted above. One stated:
Despite President Trump’s tweets about China . . . the [U.S.] acceptance
of the “no conflict, no confrontation, mutual respect and win-win
cooperation” principle has laid a solid foundation for China-U.S.
cooperation.11
And such optimism became particularly notable following the April summit. For
example, at that time Zhong Sheng observed:
The meetings between the heads of state of China and the U.S. have not
only completed the smooth transition in China-U.S. relations, but also
realized a good start in China-U.S. relations in the new period and made
clear the direction for China-U.S. relations in the future.12
Finally, of note is the fact that non-authoritative sources have also expressed the
opportunity for China provided by Trump’s apparent reduction in engagement with the
world, and his apparent protectionist sentiments. One stated:
Swaine,
China Leadership Monitor
, no. 53It is time for China to transfer its role from an economic locomotive