摘要
项目管理中的不确定性风险无处不在。项目风险管理作为重要的企业管理决策
技术，受到高度重视，逐步向系统化，专业化的方向发展。C 军工企业是军工行业
四大之一的电子工业，C 军工企业于 1984 年成立，主要从事电子信息技术发展战
略研究、大规模信息系统顶层设计、工程开发和整体综合集成的研究机构，2002 年
实体转型后定位于系统工程总体院，因 C 军工企业转型前主要以工程研发为主，近
几年随着研发项目的逐步完成以及新项目的立项，形成了产研并举的局面，这对生
产管理来说是面临着全新的挑战。MX6X 飞行模拟器是其近年重要产品之一，该产
品生产从一开始就有很大的不确定性，这种不确定性是项目的风险，这些风险伴随
着项目实践的整个过程。一旦风险发生，不仅给项目的生产带来影响，而且会造成
很大的经济损失。因此，研究 C 军工企业飞行模拟器生产过程的风险管理非常重要

本文以问题为导向，通过多年积累的项目管理理论基础和实践经验，首先提出
问题，即以 C 军工企业 MX6X 飞行模拟器生产过程的风险为研究对象，抓住生产
过程风险管理这个主要问题，其次是客观、全面地分析问题，即识别 C 军工企业
MX6X 飞行模拟器生产风险，最后是根据分析的结果，构建 C 军工企业 MX6X 飞
行模拟器生产风险评估指标体系和评估模型，运用线性加权评估法进行评估，设计
出 C 军工企业 MX6X 飞行模拟器生产风险应对对策

研究结论如下：运用层次分析法确定权重，运用线性加权法进行评估，C 军工
企业 MX6X 飞行模拟器生产风险为中风险，这也与现实中风险基本吻合，这说明构
建的评估指标体系和评估方法适合 C 军工企业 MX6X 飞行模拟器生产过程的风险
评估。针对风险状况，C 军工企业 MX6X 飞行模拟器生产过程中应从技术、进度、
成本、质量、人力资源、保密、其它风险角度采取风险应对对策

关键词：军工企业；飞行模拟器；生产过程；风险管理C 军工企业 MX6X 飞行模拟器生产过程风险管理研究
I
ABSTRACT
Uncertain risks in project management are ubiquitous. Project risk management, as
an important enterprise management decision-making technology, has been attached
great importance to, and gradually to the systematic, professional direction. C military
enterprise is electronic industry, which is one of the four major industries in the military
industry. C military enterprise was established in 1984, which is mainly engaged in
electronic information technology development strategy research, large-scale information
system top-level design, engineering development and integrated integration of research
institutions. Located in the C military enterprise system engineering institute in 2002
years after the transition from the C entity, the military enterprises before the transition
mainly in engineering, in recent years, with the gradual completion of the project and
project of new projects, the formation of both production and research situation, which is
facing new challenges of production management. MX6X flight simulator is one of the
most important products in recent years. The product has great uncertainty from the
beginning. This uncertainty is the risk of the project. These risks are accompanied by the
whole process of project practice. Once the risk occurs, it will not only affect the
production of the project, but also cause great economic losses. Therefore, it is very
important to study the risk management of C military enterprise flight simulator
production process.
This paper is problem oriented, through the accumulation of years of project
management theory and practice experience, the first question, namely to risk MX6X
flight simulator C production process of military enterprises as the research object, grasp
the main problems in the production process of risk management, the second is the
objective and comprehensive analysis, the identification of MX6X flight simulator
production risk C military enterprises, finally according to the results of the analysis,
construct the evaluation index system and evaluation model of MX6X flight simulator
production risk C military enterprises, using the linear weighted evaluation method to
assess the design of C military enterprise MX6X flight simulator production risk coping
strategies.
The research conclusions are as follows: using AHP to determine the weight, using
the linear weighted method to assess the C military enterprise MX6X flight simulator
production risk to risk, this also with the real risks are basically consistent, indicating thatABSTRACT
II
the risk assessment of the construction of evaluation index system and evaluation method
for MX6X flight simulator C production process of military enterprises. In view of the
risk situation, C military enterprise MX6X flight simulator production process should be
from the technology, progress, cost, quality, human resources, confidentiality, and other
risk perspective to take risk response strategies.
KEYWORDS ： military enterprise; flight simulator; production process ； risk
managementC 军工企业 MX6X 飞行模拟器生产过程风险管理研究目 录
第一章 绪论....1
第一节 研究背景与意义 1
一、研究背景.....1
二、研究意义.....1
第二节 国内外研究现状 2
一、国外研究现状.........2
二、国内研究现状.........3
三、文献述评.....4
第三节 研究内容与方法 4
一、查阅文献法.5
二、对比分析法.5
三、实地调研法.5
第四节 论文总体思路.... 5
第五节 创新点.... 6
第二章 项目风险管理相关概念及理论........8
第一节 项目风险管理.... 8
一、风险识别.....8
二、风险评估.....8
三、风险应对...10
第二节 军工产品生产过程风险类型及其来源.......... 11
一、军工产品生产过程风险的特征...11
二、军工产品生产过程风险类型及其来源...12
第三节 军工产品生产过程风险的识别及评估方法.. 13
一、军工产品生产过程风险的识别及识别方法.......13
二、军工产品生产过程风险的评估方法.......14
第四节 军工产品生产过程风险