近年来,随着社会经济的发展,人民生活水平日益提高,城市化建设进程不断加

快,城市规模不断扩大,城市人口总量持续增长,人民出行与城市交通之间的矛盾日

益突出。具有运量大、低污染、低噪音、低能耗、高速度、低成本、占地少、舒适、

全天候等得天独厚优势的城市轨道交通,日益成为我国和其他国家优先发展的交通运

输方式。

城市轨道交通建设在我国日益盛行,国内外众多专家和学着对城市轨道交通建设

项目也深有研究。而作为城市轨道交通的重要载体,城轨交通装备项目却鲜有研究。

城市轨道交通作为重要的公共产品,其投资大、回收期长、运营亏损风险高等特点对

投资主体决策影响显著,这种不确定性的存在使得城轨交通装备投资项目充满风险。

加上一方面国内对城轨交通项目市场准入严格限制,另一方面目前城轨交通装备行业

产能过剩等因素,对城轨交通装备项目投资的深入研究势在必行。

本文以CD市轨道交通装备投资项目为例进行分析,主要从项目投资环境入手,

通过对项目投资、融资、收入、成本、利润和现金流量进行测算,从项目投资的经济

效益、社会效益和环境效益进行分析,评估论证城轨交通装备项目投资的可行性;又

对项目从定量和定性两个方面进行风险分析,定量风险分析主要从项目盈亏平衡分析

和敏感性分析展开,定性风险分析主要从市场风险、技术风险、运营风险和工程风险

方面论述;最后根据风险分析内容,提出对项目风险进行管控的建议,以期将项目风

险降至最低。

论文的主要工作如下:1、查阅论文相关文献资料,确定论文写作大纲和思路;2、

收集项目投资前期调研数据信息,介绍项目的投资背景,主要阐述投资区域社会经济

基本情况和项目投资相关利益方的背景;3、根据项目投资规模,测算财务数据,分析

项目投资效益,主要从财务投融资、财务经济效益指标进行分析,同时对项目的社会

效益、环境效益等进行说明;4、通过定量和定性分析方法,对本项目所面临的潜在风

险进行分析;5、根据风险分析,提出对风险分析进行管控的有效措施,最大程度地降

低项目投资风险;6、对项目投资分析作出结论。

通过本文对城轨交通装备项目的投资效益分析和风险控制研究,可为国内外类似

项目投资提供分析方法的参考,以更好地为投资决策提供信息支持,_有效防控项目投

资风险,最大限度地实现项目投资效益。

关键词:地铁车辆;项目投资;投资效益;风险控制

Abstract

The conflict between the people travel and urban transport is increasingly prominent

following the development of social economy, the increasingly improvement of people's

living standard, the acceleration of urbanization process, the continuous expansion of city

size as well as the sustained growth of city population in recent years. With its unique

advantages of large traffic volume, low pollution, low noises, low energy consumption, high

speed, low cost, small footprint, comfortable and all-weather running etc., the urban mass

transit is becoming the priority to the development of transportation modes in China and

other countries.

The construction of urban mass transit is increasingly popular in China, numerous

domestic and foreign experts and scholars have has profound researches on the urban mass

transit projects. While the project for urban mass transit equipment - the vital carrier of

urban transportation - has rarely been researched. As a key public product, the

characteristics of the urban mass transit like large investment, long payback period and high

operating loss risk etc. have significant impact on the main investment decision,the

existence of such uncertainty carries risks to the investment project of urban mass transit

equipment. Together with the stringent restriction on the access to the urban mass transit

projects and the overcapacity of the urban mass transit equipment industry in China,it is

inevitable to carry out profound research on the investment to the urban mass transit

equipment projects.

This thesis, by setting the example of the rail transport equipment investment project in

CD city as example, mainly with project investment environment as its start point, through

the estimation to the project investment, financing, income, cost, profit and cash flow,

assessed and demonstrated the feasibility of the urban mass transit equipment project

investment by analyzing the project investment from the aspects as economic benefits, social

benefits and environmental benefits; moreover, it carried out risk analysis to the project both

quantitatively and qualitatively, with the quantitative analysis mainly on the project

breakeven analysis and sensitivity analysis, and the qualitative analysis mainly on the market

risk, technologic risk, operating risk and engineering risk; finally, it put forward suggestions

for project risk control in a move to minimize the project risk.

Main jobs of the Thesis are: 1. Search for relevant references and define the outline and

ideas for the Thesis; 2. Collect the research information in the early stage of the project

investment, introduce the investment background of the project, focusing on the social

economy general status in the investment region and the backgrounds of stakeholders; 3.

Based on the project investment size, estimate the financial data, analyze project investment

return, focusing on the analysis of the financial investment, financing,and economic

indicators,as well as the description on the social and environmental benefits of the project;

4. Carry out analysis on the potential risks of the project by means of quantitative and

qualitative analysis; 5. Based on the risk analysis, propose effective initiatives for the

governing of the risks so as to minimize the project investment risks; 6. Conclude tite project

investment analysis.

The investment benefits analysis and the risk control study of the urban mass transit

equipment project in this Thesis can be a reference for the investment of domestic and

foreign similar projects so as to provide better information support to the decision makers,

control effectively the project investment risk and maximize the project investment returns.

Keywords: metro vehicles; project investment; investment return; risk control