摘要
随着中国经济发展进入成熟阶段,社会消费品高度丰富,中国的消费品市场
己经进入供大于求的“买方”消费市场时代。消费品行业不可避免的从传统的粗放
式管理模式向精细化管理模式转变。如何利用信息化技术进行精细化管理,如何
构建快速反应的供应链体系,如何平衡高脱销、高库存之间的矛盾,这些问题己
经摆在所有管理者面前
本文以消费品行业需求出发,在企业运营管理的理论框架下,研发出基于时
间序列连续预测的供需平衡系统,并把系统应用于品牌服饰企业的运营实践中,
取得显著的效果,为企业创造了价值
本文采用案例研究的方法,对基于时间序列连续预测的供需平衡系统进行研
宄。首先,系统介绍销售预测及供需平衡相关理论;其次,阐述基于时间序列连
续预测的供需平衡系统的设计与实现;再则,对基于时间序列的预测效果及准确
度进行简单分析;最后,分析系统对企业实行快速反应战略的支撑,对系统综合
运营效率进行分析与评价
消费品行业多具有竞争性强、季节性强的特点,有些行业,如服饰等,生产
周期长、SKU多,属于较为复杂的行业。本文所述供需平衡的方法论应用于品
牌服饰并取得较好效果,同时也会适用于大多数消费品行业,具有较强的适用范
围,具备研宄和应用价值。通过对基于时间序列的供需平衡系统以及本文研究结
论的应用,对于消费品行业的提高运营效率、进行精细化管理提供一些借鉴意义
关键词:时间序列、连续预测、供需平衡、消费品
Abstract
With the ripe development of Chinese economy, Chinese consumption market
presents rich and colorful in products,and turns into the oversupply buyer's market.
Inevitably, the consumption industry has to transform its development model from
rapid management to lean management. How to use information system to support
lean management, how to construct quick response supply chain system,and how to
conciliate the conflict between out-of-stock and overstock,have become the tough
problems that managers have to face.
This paper begins on the demand of consumption industry. Under the framework
of business operation management, the author develops a supply-demand balance
system based on continual forecasting of time series. We deploy this system on some
brand fashion companies. The operation practices gain remarkable results and create
valuable benefits.
This paper uses the research method of case study on the supply-demand balance
system. By reviewing the relevant theories of sale forecasting and supply-demand
balance,we elaborate the design and development of the supply-demand balance
system based on continual forecasting of time series. We analyze the result and
accuracy of forecasting, and its support for enterprise's quick response strategy. In the
end, we conclude some valuable methods and experiences for other enterprises.
Consumption industry is competitive and seasonal mostly. Some business, like
garment industry, seems to be very complex with long production cycle and
multi-SKU. The supply-demand balance system applies to brand fashion companies
successfully. It might apply to most of consumption industry as well. Researching on
the supply-demand balance system based on continual forecasting of time series is
valuable to improve operation efficiency and lean management.
Key words: Time series, Continual forecasting, Supply-demand balance,
Consumer industry.
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