分类号密级
U D C 编号
硕士学位论文
贷款损失准备计提及时性
与商业银行信贷行为
研究生姓名：周建伟
指导教师姓名、职称：郭飞教授
学科门类：管理学
专业名称：财务管理
研究方向：企业财务
入学时间：二〇一七年九月
二〇二〇年五月五日
The timeliness of loan loss provision and
credit behavior of commercial banks
By Zhou Jianwei
2020-05-05
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贷款损失准备计提及时性与商业银行信贷行为
摘要
商业银行在我国金融体系中发挥着主导性作用，盘活社会融资、促进实体经济发
展和保障国民经济稳定。随着金融在经济中的作用越来越大，金融与经济间的正向波
动也越来越明显。而且，商业银行的信贷行为普遍存在顺周期性，间接成为金融危机
的助推剂，加剧了金融危机的负面影响。因此，2008年全球金融危机以后，专家学
者对商业银行的信贷行为日益关注，相关研究也逐渐展开。那么，在我国特殊的制度
背景下，商业银行信贷行为是否具有周期性，商业银行信贷周期性受哪些因素影响
呢？
基于此，本文以2010-2018年我国商业银行为研究样本，采用GMM 模型，探讨
贷款损失准备计提及时性对商业银行信贷行为的影响。本文首次研究了贷款损失准备
计提及时性对我国商业银行信贷行为周期性的影响，并考虑了不同经济周期和不同商
业银行之间的异质性。研究发现：贷款损失准备计提及时性缓解了商业银行信贷行为
的逆周期性。进一步分析中，结果发现：在资本约束较高组和潜在监管压力较低组，
贷款损失准备计提及时性对商业银行信贷逆周期性的缓解效应更显著。此外，本文还
发现在经济上行期，贷款损失准备计提及时性显著缓解了信贷行为的逆周期性，而在
经济下行期，并没有发现缓解作用。最后进行分组检验，探讨贷款损失准备计提及时
性对商业银行信贷行为的影响在不同股权结构和不同类型银行间的异质性，以深化对
贷款损失准备计提及时性与商业银行信贷行为关系的理解。
本文首次研究了我国商业银行贷款损失准备计提及时性对信贷行为的影响，并且
结合我国实际情况和监管机制探讨了贷款损失准备计提及时性影响商业银行信贷行
为的机理，丰富了贷款损失准备的相关研究。本文从贷款损失准备计提及时性的研究
视角拓展了商业银行信贷行为的相关研究，补充了商业银行信贷行为的影响因素研究。
此外，本文研究有助于监管层充分了解贷款损失准备计提及时性的经济后果，调整相
关政策，实施宏观审慎监管，对金融系统稳定和宏观政策落实有重要的影响，有利于
国民经济持续稳定发展。
关键词：贷款损失准备；及时性；信贷行为；资本约束；监管压力
1
贷款损失准备计提及时性与商业银行信贷行为
Abstract
Commercial banks play a leading role in China's financial system,revitalizing social
financing,promoting the development of the real economy,and ensuring the stability of
the national economy.With the increasing role of finance in the economy,the positive
fluctuations between finance and economy is more and more obvious.Moreover,the credit
behavior of commercial banks is generally procyclical,which indirectly became a booster
for the financial crisis,exacerbating the negative impact of the financial crisis.Therefore,
after the global financial crisis in 2008,experts and scholars are increasingly concerned
about the credit behavior of commercial banks.So,under the special system background of
our country,does the credit behavior of commercial banks have periodicity?What factors
influence the credit periodicity of commercial banks?
Based on this,this paper takes China's commercial banks in 2010-2018as the
research sample,and uses GMM model to explore the impact of the timeliness of loan loss
provision on the credit behavior of commercial banks.For the first time,this paper studies
the impact of the timeliness of loan loss provision on the credit cycle of China's
commercial banks,and considers the heterogeneity between different economic cycles and
different commercial banks.It is found that the timeliness of loan loss provision alleviates
the counter cyclical of commercial bank credit.In the further analysis,the results show that:
In the group with higher capital constraints and lower potential regulatory pressure,the
loan-loss provisions are more effective in alleviating the countercyclicality of credit of
commercial banks.In addition,this paper also found that in the economic uptrend period,
the timeliness of loan loss provision significantly alleviates the countercyclicality of credit,
while in the economic downturn period,no mitigation effects were found.In the end,the
group test is carried out to explore the impact of the timeliness of loan loss provision on
the credit behavior of commercial banks in different equity structures and different types of
banks,so as to deepen the understanding of the relationship between the timeliness of loan
loss provision and the credit behavior of commercial banks.
This paper first studies the impact of the timeliness of loan loss provision on the credit
behavior of commercial banks in China,and explores the mechanism of the timeliness of
loan loss provision about affecting the credit behavior of commercial banks based on the
actual situation in China,which enriches the relevant research on the loan loss provision.
From the perspective of the timeliness of loan loss provision,this paper expands the
relevant research on the credit behavior of commercial banks and supplements the research
I