分类号密级
U D C 编号10486
武汉大学
硕士学位论文
经济政策不确定性与企业杠杆率
研究生姓名：李佳
学号：2018201050076
指导教师姓名、职称：何国华教授
学科、专业名称：金融学
研究方向：国际金融
2021年5月
Economic Policy Uncertainty and
Corporate Leverage Rate
By
Li Jia
May ,2021
摘要
近年来中国的债务规模快速扩张，非金融企业部门的债务与GDP 之比自
2008年的141%迅速扩张至2016年的255%，威胁到我国金融体系的稳定。为
此，2015年12月中央经济工作会议提出推进供给侧结构性改革并把“去杠杆”
作为主要任务之一。企业部门杠杆率分为宏观杠杆率和微观杠杆率两个层面，前
者一般用总债务/GDP 估算，后者通常定义为资产负债率，二者的差异在于资产
收益率。宏观层面看，我国非金融企业杠杆率水平较高、增速较快；与此同时，
企业的微观杠杆率却显著下降。关于我国整体杠杆率到底是过高还是过低问题尚
无一致定论，两方面均能找到相应的论据。我国是债务结构性问题突出的经济体，
一刀切式地全面地去杠杆，可能会导致信贷资源进一步错配。因此，与其简单地
讨论企业部门的最优杠杆率水平，不如首先厘清企业部门债务的结构性问题，搞
清到底是谁在加杠杆、谁在去杠杆，并探讨引起结构性分化的影响因素，为科学
地推进结构性去杠杆提供政策建议。
考虑到现实背景，受国际形势动荡、英国脱欧以及贸易摩擦等外部环境影响，
以及中国近年来推进供给侧结构性改革、利率市场化等一系列改革举措，政府对
经济的干预力度增强，经常性出台各类经济政策使得企业面临的经济政策不确定
性增加，这必然会给企业的融资等微观行为带来影响。基于上述考虑，在我国当
前经济政策不确定性不断升高的现实背景下，本文从经济政策不确定性角度分析
企业微观杠杆率的变化，并试图为科学制定结构性去杠杆政策提供建议。
本文通过构建固定效应面板模型，基于Baker 等（2016）构建的中国经济政
策不确定性指数实证考察政策不确定性对企业微观杠杆率的整体影响和考察结
构性特征后的不同影响。研究表明：（1）经济政策不确定性会给企业微观杠杆率
带来负向冲击：经济政策不确定性指数每增加1%，将导致企业资产负债率整体
降低1.5%-2.6%；（2）经济政策不确定性对不同所有制性质、不同规模以及不同
行业的企业杠杆率的冲击具有差异。具体而言，非国有企业和小规模企业杠杆率
受经济政策不确定性的冲击更大，而对房地产和建筑业的杠杆率没有显著影响。
针对以上结论，本文提出以下建议：（1）继续推进结构性去杠杆，具体而言进一
步化解国企的预算软约束、分城分类制定房地产调控政策以稳定房价以及减轻中
小企业因信息不对称面临的融资难问题；（2）为避免好杠杆被挤出，降低经济政
策不确定性，稳定市场预期。（3）进一步深化利率市场化改革。
关键词：经济政策不确定性；企业杠杆率；结构性去杠杆
I
Abstract
In recent years,China's debt scale has expanded rapidly,with the debt-to-GDP
ratio of the non-financial corporate sector expanding rapidly from 141%in 2008to 255%
in 2016,threatening the stability of China's financial system.Therefore,the Central
Economic Work Conference in December 2015proposed to promote the supply-side
structural reform and take "deleveraging"as one of the main tasks.The leverage ratio
of the enterprise sector have two levels:macro leverage ratio and micro leverage ratio.
The former is generally estimated by gross debt /GDP,while the latter is usually defined
as asset-liability ratio.The difference between the two lies in return on assets.At the
macro level,the leverage ratio of China's non-financial enterprises is relatively high
and the growth rate is fast.Meanwhile,micro corporate leverage has declined
significantly.There is no consensus on whether China's overall leverage ratio is too
high or too low,and corresponding arguments can be found on both sides.China is an
economy with prominent debt structural problems.Deleveraging across the board may
lead to further misallocation of credit resources.Therefore,rather than simply
discussing the optimal leverage ratio of the corporate sector,it is better to firstly clarify
the structural problems of corporate sector debt,find out who is increasing leverage and
who is deleveraging,and explore the influencing factors that cause structural
differentiation,so as to provide policy tools for scientific and effective structural
deleveraging.
Considering the realistic background,with international turmoil,Brexit,trade
frictions and China's a series of reform measures,such as supply-side structural reform
and interest rate marketization,the government intervention in the economy strength
has increased.The frequent introduction of various economic policies by the
government will improve the economic policy uncertainty faced by enterprises,which
is bound to affect the financing behavior of enterprises.Based on the above
considerations,in the context of the increasing uncertainty of China's current economic
policy,this paper analyzes the changes of corporate micro leverage ratio from the
perspective of economic policy uncertainty,and tries to provide suggestions for the
scientific formulation of structural deleveraging policies.
By constructing the fixed-effect panel model,we empirically investigate the
overall influence of policy uncertainty on corporate micro leverage ratio and different
influence considering the structural characteristics by using China's economic policy
uncertainty index constructed by Baker et al.(2016).The results are as follows:(1)The
II
economic policy uncertainty will bring negative impact to the corporate asset-liability
ratio:every 1%increase of the economic policy uncertainty index will lead to the
overall decline of the corporate asset-liability ratio by 1.5%-2.6%;(2)The influence of
economic policy uncertainty on the leverage ratio of enterprises with different
ownership properties,different scales and different industries is different.Specifically,
the leverage ratio of non-state-owned enterprises and small-scale enterprises is more
affected by economic policy uncertainty,while the leverage ratio of real estate and
construction has no significant impact.In view of the above conclusions,this paper
proposes the following suggestions:(1)Continue to promote structural deleveraging.
Specifically,further resolve the soft budget constraints of state-owned enterprises,
formulate real estate regulation policies based on city to stabilize housing prices,and
alleviate financing difficulties faced by small and medium-sized enterprises due to
information asymmetry;(2)Reduce economic policy uncertainty and stabilize market
expectations to avoid the good lever being squeezed out;(3)Further deepen the reform
of interest rate liberalization.
Keywords:Economic policy uncertainty;Corporate leverage rate;Structural
deleveraging
III