分类号密级公开
UDC 编号20223550038
硕士学位论文
（专业学位）
房地产企业债券违约案例研究——以金科股份为例
申请人姓名林子澜
导师姓名及职称来特，副教授
专业学位类别金融硕士
专业学位领域金融
培养单位金融学院金融专硕中心
学位授予单位广东外语外贸大学
2024年5月23日
分类号密级公开
UDC 编号20223550038
广东外语外贸大学硕士学位论文
（专业学位）
房地产企业债券违约案例研究——以金科股份为例
Research on the Bond Default of Real Enterprises:A Case Study of
Jinke Property Group
申请人姓名林子澜
导师姓名及职称来特，副教授
专业学位类别金融硕士
专业学位领域金融
论文提交日期2024年5月23日
论文答辩日期2024年5月16日
答辩委员会郭文伟教授杨龙
杨碧云教授
学位授予单位：广东外语外贸大学
摘要
随着我国市场经济快速发展和产业快速更新迭代，发行债券逐渐成为我国各
类企业从资本市场中获取融资的重要方式之一。但随着债券市场存量规模不断攀
升的同时，我国债券市场信用风险也在不断释放，违约事件频发且逐步升级。2021
年以来，房地产企业经历着来自行业政策和市场环境的双重考验，许多全国性高
评级房企先后发生违约事件，房地产行业成为新一轮债券集中违约潮的爆发地。
因此，对房企债券违约事件展开相关研究具有重要意义，这不仅关系到房地产市
场和债券市场的健康发展，更与我国宏观经济能否平稳运行息息相关。
本文选取同时发生境内债和美元债违约的全国性房企代表金科股份作为案
例研究对象。首先，从内外部视角出发，对金科股份债券违约成因和后续影响进
行深入剖析。外部原因主要是宏观经济下行叠加疫情冲击、房地产行业政策调控
持续收紧、我国房地产行业风险高度积聚等。内部原因则主要有企业内部股权长
期结构不稳定、采取“逆市”激进扩张战略、债务结构长期失衡等。在债券违约
事件发生后，金科股份股价大幅下跌，市场信心遭受严重打击，信用评级下调，
获取融资难度增大，子公司经营独立性受创，投资者权益受损，影响宏观经济发
展。其次，本文采用Z-Score 模型和KMV 模型对金科股份的违约风险进行定量
分析，从而对企业违约风险变化过程进行预警监控。其中，Z-Score 模型从企业
历史财务指标角度揭示了金科股份违约风险的历史累积过程，而KMV 模型则从
市场表现角度展现了企业违约风险的实时动态变化。
最后，本文对金科股份债券违约事件的起因、经过、后续处置和相关影响
做出总结，并以此对房地产企业、投资者以及相关监管机构提出相应的启示。对
于债券发行主体房地产企业而言，要重视债务结构优化，客观评估行业环境，转
向差异化发展战略，优化企业内部风险评估机制；相关监管机构要实行分级监管，
避免短期内陷入流动性紧张但有长期发展价值的房地产企业难以获得流动性支
持，同时加强对于房地产行业的宏观审慎监管；投资者在事前要审慎投资决策，
事后则及时利用相关法律法规维护自身权益。
关键词债券违约；金科股份；房地产企业；KMV 模型；Z-Score 模型
I
Abstract
With the rapid development of China's market economy and the rapid updating
and iteration of industries,issuing bonds has gradually become one of the important
ways for various enterprises in China to obtain financing from the capital market.
However,as the stock size of the bond market continues to rise,the credit risk of China's
bond market is also constantly released,and default events occur frequently and
gradually escalate.Since 2021,real estate companies have experienced a dual test of
industry policies and market environment,with many national high rated real estate
companies experiencing default events.The real estate industry has become the
birthplace of a new wave of concentrated bond default.Therefore,conducting relevant
research on the default events of real estate enterprise bonds is of great significance,
which is not only related to the healthy development of the real estate market and bond
market,but also closely related to the stable operation of China's macroeconomy.
This article selects Jinke Property Group,a national real estate enterprise
representative that suffered both domestic and US dollar bond defaults,as the case study
object.Firstly,from both internal and external perspectives,it conducts an in-depth
analysis of the causes and subsequent impacts of Jinke Property Group's bond default.
The external causes mainly include the downward macroeconomic trend combined with
the impact of the COVID-19pandemic,the continuous tightening of policy regulation
in the real estate industry,and the high accumulation of risks in China's real estate
industry.The internal causes mainly include the long-term instability of the internal
equity structure of the enterprise,the adoption of an aggressive expansion strategy
against the trend of the market,and the long-term imbalance of debt structure.After the
bond default event,Jinke Property Group's share price fell sharply,market confidence
was severely hit,credit ratings were downgraded,financing difficulties increased,the
independence of subsidiary operations was affected,investors'rights and interests were
damaged,and macroeconomic development was affected.Secondly,this article uses
the Z-Score model and KMV model to conduct quantitative analysis on Jinke Property
Group's default risk,so as to provide early warning monitoring for the change process
of enterprise default risk.Among them,the Z-Score model reveals the historical
accumulation process of Jinke Property Group's default risk from the perspective of its
historical financial indicators,while the KMV model shows the real-time dynamic
changes of enterprise default risk from the perspective of market performance.
II
Finally,this article summarizes the causes,process,subsequent disposal,and
related impacts of the Jinke shares bond default event,and proposes corresponding
implications for real estate enterprises,investors,and relevant regulatory agencies.For
the bond issuing entity,real estate enterprises,it is necessary to pay attention to the
optimization of debt structure,objectively evaluate the industry environment,shift to
differentiated development strategies,and optimize the internal risk assessment
mechanism.The relevant regulatory agencies should implement hierarchical
supervision to avoid real estate enterprises with short-term liquidity constraints but
long-term development value from being unable to obtain liquidity support in the short
term,while strengthening macro-prudential supervision of the real estate industry.
Investors should be cautious in making investment decisions beforehand and use
relevant laws and regulations to safeguard their own interests in a timely manner
afterwards.
Key words:Bond default;Jinke Property Group;Real estate enterprises;Z-Score
Model;KMV model
III