中国房地产上市公司债券违约风险与政治关联
The bond default risk of China's real estate listed companies
and the political connection
姓名：袁振秋
Name:Yuan Zhenqiu
分类号密级
U D C 编号
硕士学位论文
学位论文题目：中国房地产上市公司债券违约风险
与政治关联
姓名袁振秋
学号2021211577
学院管理科学与工程学院
学位类别：学术硕士□专业硕士□同等学力
学科专业房地产经济与管理
指导教师李文斌（教授）
第二导师
提交论文日期：2023年5月6日
摘要
中国的房地产开发企业自2015起发行了大量的信用债券以满足自身业务开
发的融资需求，但2021年下半年至2022年上半年，随着政策环境的改变和市场
环境的骤变，房地产企业债券违约事件频发，引发了房地产行业和金融市场的信
用风险事件，房地产企业的债券违约风险成为经济生活中的热点话题。
引发房地产企业的债券集中违约的原因众多，包括宏观经济、市场环境及政
策环境、行业变化及企业自身经营管理水平等。其中已有部分研究表明，企业内
部人员的个人特征存在异质性会导致企业在投融资决策等方面产生差异，而企业
管理者是否存在政治联系，以使企业获得政治资源，亦为其个人特征的异质性问
题之一。
本文主要探究房地产企业存在的政治关联对房地产企业债券违约风险的影
响。从公开渠道获取房地产企业管理人员的个人简历后，以担任董事长职务的管
理者作为政治关联的主要载体，对房地产企业董事长存在政治关联以及存在何种
程度、类型的政治关联对企业融资决策、债务规模、企业债券违约风险的影响机
制进行系统分析。
在上述研究内容的基础上，本研究通过寻找能够衡量房地产企业债券违约的
变量及能够量化其董事长政治关联的变量后，根据已有研究建立科学合理的数学
模型，在公开渠道获取相应数据并进行预处理，通过实证研究得出结论：房地产
上市公司董事长曾担任人大代表职务扩大了其债券的违约率，该结论在国有企业
和民营企业中都具备显著性，董事长曾担任政协委员职务亦会使公司的债券违约
风险增加，但该结论在国有企业中不具有显著性。
本文的结论对于房地产企业经营管理、房地产行业政策制定者确定相关政策、
投资者和金融机构选择房地产相关证券、金融监管机构对相关金融产品的监管具
有一定借鉴意义。
关键词：债券违约、政治关联、房地产企业
Abstract
Since 2015,Chinese real estate development enterprises have issued a large
number of credit bonds to meet their financing needs for business development.
However,from the second half of 2021to the first half of 2022,with changes in policy
environment and sudden changes in market environment,bond default events of real
estate enterprises have occurred frequently,leading to credit risk events in the real estate
industry and financial market.The bond default risk of real estate enterprises has
become a hot topic in economic life.
There are many reasons for the concentrated default of bonds by real estate
enterprises,including macroeconomic,market and policy environments,industry
changes,and the level of enterprise management.Some studies have shown that the
heterogeneity of personal characteristics among internal personnel in enterprises can
lead to differences in investment and financing decisions,and the existence of political
connections among enterprise managers to enable them to obtain political resources is
also one of the heterogeneity issues of their personal characteristics.
This article mainly explores the impact of political connections in real estate
enterprises on the default risk of real estate enterprise bonds.After obtaining the
personal resumes of real estate enterprise managers from public channels,the managers
holding the position of chairman are used as the main carriers of political connections.
By analyzing the political connections between the chairman of the real estate
enterprise and the degree and type of political connections that exist on the financing
decisions and debt scale of the enterprise,the impact mechanism of corporate bond
default risk is systematically analyzed.
On the basis of the above research content,this study searched for variables that
can measure the default of real estate corporate bonds and quantify the political
correlation of its chairman.Based on existing research,a scientific and reasonable
mathematical model was established,and corresponding data was obtained through
public channels and preprocessed.Through empirical research,it was concluded that
the chairman of a real estate listed company who served as a representative of the
National People's Congress expanded the default rate of its bonds,This conclusion is
significant in both state-owned and private enterprises.The chairman's previous
position as a member of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference also
increases the risk of bond default in the company,but this conclusion is not significant
in state-owned enterprises.
The conclusion of this article has certain reference significance for the operation
and management of real estate enterprises,the determination of relevant policies by real
estate industry policy makers,the selection of real estate related securities by investors
and financial institutions,and the supervision of related financial products by financial
regulatory agencies.
Key words:Bond default,political affiliation,real estate enterprises,