分类号密级公开
UDC 编号20213510025
硕士学位论文
（学术学位）
农村劳动力流动对家庭商业保险需求的影响研究
申请人姓名廖奕颖
导师姓名及职称任辉教授
申请学位类别经济学硕士
学科专业名称金融工程
培养单位金融学院
学位授予单位广东外语外贸大学
2024年5月20日
分类号密级公开
UDC 编号20213510025
广东外语外贸大学硕士学位论文
（学术学位）
农村劳动力流动对家庭商业保险需求的影响研究
Study on the Influence of Rural Labor Mobility on Family
Commercial Insurance Demand
申请人姓名廖奕颖
导师姓名及职称任辉教授
申请学位类别经济学硕士
学科专业名称金融工程
论文提交日期2024年5月20日
论文答辩日期2024年4月28日
答辩委员会朱书尚教授陈镇喜教授
杨碧云教授周艳利副教授
丁宇刚讲师
学位授予单位：广东外语外贸大学
摘要
本文研究农村劳动力流动对农村家庭商业保险需求的影响。劳动力由农村向
城市的大规模流动是当前以及过去几十年中国人口流动的主要表现形式。根据
《2022年农民工监测调查报告》，2022年我国外出农民工人数为1.719亿，较
2008年增长了3149万人，尽管近些年增长速度有所下滑，但总量仍然呈现增长
态势。城乡间的人口流动实现了劳动要素的合理配置，对推动中国工业化以及城
镇化进程，促进中国经济高质量发展产生了深远影响。但是，农村劳动力流动是
一个充满风险和不确定性的过程，对于部分流动性较高的外出农民工群体来说，
他们在流动过程中面临的健康风险、养老风险、人身伤害风险等诸多风险会明显
增加。尽管参加社会保险的农民工人数逐年增多，但当前的社会保险仍存在统筹
层次低、转移接续困难、保障水平低等问题，并不能很好适应农村外出劳动力高
流动性的特点，使得他们在流动过程中面临的风险未能得到有效保障，其“市民
化”进程受到阻碍，从而存在对商业保险的潜在需求。而对于那些流动性较低的
农民工群体来说，由于在外生活稳定，他们的社会融入程度更高，根据《2022
年农民工监测调查报告》，近五成的进城农民工认为自己是所居住城市的“本地
人”。随着城市融入水平的提高，外出农民工的消费观念会受到城市本地居民的
影响，消费水平会不断提高，消费结构也会不断完善。相比农村，城市的商业保
险市场更发达，城市居民的商业保险参报率更高，随着收入水平以及城市融入水
平的提高，外出农民工家庭参与商业保险的概率也会逐步增加。本文以现有文献
研究为基础，从微观家庭的角度探究农村劳动力流动对家庭商业保险需求的影响，
为家庭商业保险需求影响因素研究提供经验证据和文献补充。
本文选取2017年和2019年两期CHFS 数据，以托达罗理论、马斯洛需求理
论等为基础，采用Probit 模型从实证角度考察农村劳动力流动对家庭商业保险需
求的影响及其内在机制。本文发现劳动力流动显著促进了农村家庭商业保险参与
及参与程度。通过进一步分析发现，农村劳动力流动通过提高家庭收入、缓解家
庭流动性约束促进家庭商业保险参与，同时社会融入程度会加强这一促进效果。
本文还从异质性角度进行分析，发现农村劳动力流动对家庭商业保险参与的促进
作用在新生代农民工家庭、低财富水平以及文化程度更高的农村家庭样本中更加
显著。此外，本文采用工具变量法、替换解释变量、替换被解释变量及更换模型、
缩小样本范围等方法进行稳健性检验，较为全面地处理了内生性问题，表明本文
的结论是可靠的。最后本文基于研究结论提出了相关政策建议。
关键词农村劳动力流动家庭商业保险社会融入
IV
Abstract
This paper studies the influence of rural labor mobility on rural families'demand
for commercial insurance.The large-scale migration of labor force from rural areas to
cities is the main manifestation of population migration in China at present and in the
past decades.According to the Survey Report on Migrant Workers in 2022,the
number of migrant workers in China was 171.9million in 2022,an increase of 31.49
million compared with 2008.Although the growth rate has declined in recent years,
the total number still shows an increasing trend.The population flow between urban
and rural areas has realized the rational allocation of labor factors,which has a
far-reaching impact on promoting the industrialization and urbanization of China and
promoting the high-quality economic development of China.However,rural labor
mobility is a process full of risks and uncertainties.For some migrant workers with
high mobility,many risks such as health risks,pension risks and personal injury risks
will increase significantly during the mobility.Although the number of migrant
workers participating in social insurance is increasing year by year,the current social
insurance still has some problems,such as low level of overall planning,difficulty in
transferring and connecting,and low level of protection,which can not well adapt to
the characteristics of high mobility of rural migrant workers,making the risks they
face in the process of mobility not effectively protected,and hindering their
"citizenization"process,thus there is a potential demand for commercial insurance.
For those migrant workers with low mobility,their social integration is higher
because of their stable life outside.According to the Report on Migrant Workers
Monitoring in 2022,nearly 50%of migrant workers in cities consider themselves
"locals"in their cities.With the improvement of urban integration level,the
consumption concept of migrant workers will be influenced by local residents,the
consumption level will continue to improve and the consumption structure will
continue to improvepared with rural areas,the commercial insurance market in
cities is more developed,and the participation rate of urban residents in commercial
insurance is higher.With the improvement of income level and urban integration level,
the probability of migrant workers'families participating in commercial insurance
will gradually increase.Based on the existing literature research,this paper explores
the influence of rural labor mobility on family commercial insurance demand from the
perspective of micro-family,and provides empirical evidence and literature
V
supplement for the study of influencing factors of family commercial insurance
demand.
Based on the data of CHFS in 2017and 2019,and based on Todaro's theory and
Maslow's demand theory,this paper uses Probit model to investigate the influence of
rural labor mobility on family commercial insurance demand and its internal
mechanism from an empirical perspective.This paper finds that labor mobility
significantly promotes the participation and degree of rural family commercial
insurance.Through further analysis,it is found that rural labor mobility promotes
family commercial insurance participation by increasing family income and easing
family mobility constraints,and the degree of social integration will strengthen this
promotion effect.This paper also analyzes from the perspective of heterogeneity,and
finds that the promotion of rural labor mobility to family commercial insurance
participation is more significant in the new generation of migrant families,rural
families with low wealth level and higher education level.In addition,this paper uses
the tool variable method,replacing explanatory variables,replacing explained
variables and models,and narrowing the sample range to test the robustness,which
comprehensively deals with the endogenous problems,indicating that the conclusion
of this paper is reliable.Finally,based on the research conclusions,this paper puts
forward relevant policy suggestions.
Keywords Rural Migrant Workers,Household Commercial Insurance,Social
Integration
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