化肥行业是关系国计民生的行业，随着现代农业的发展，乡村振兴的深入， 绿色、安全、环保也成为农业发展的趋势。面对化肥行业总体结构性过剩，供大 于求，化肥产品需求改变，国家供给侧结构改革的现状，都促使化肥行业必须要 进行结构性调整。在这个过程中，每个企业都面临着不同的战略选择和经营决策， 那么选择哪种战略以及与战略相匹配的经营决策就显得至关重要。 本文以哈佛分析框架作为主要分析工具，根据案例公司公开报表数据及相关 资料为技术分析的基础数据，从宏观经济出发结合所处行业背景，从战略分析中 得出化肥整体行业面临着转型升级的压力，YTH集团的转型升级也迫在眉睫，YTH 集团应该采取一体化的发展型战略。紧接着通过会计分析和财务分析来揭示YTH 集团要实现一体化发展型战略目标所存在的差距和问题。通过会计分析我们可以 看到问题和差距主要体现在货币资金和企业现金流较为紧张，财务风险加大，存 货一直在较高位运行，财务费用有所上升，财务风险进一步加大。财务分析中我 们可以看到YTH集团运营能力较有优势，盈利能力和发展能力有所提高，但固定 资产周转率和存货周转率还有待提升，偿债能力需要加强，资产负债率亟待改善， 盈利能力和发展能力后劲不足，在行业中处于不利地位。同时在一体化发展型战 略基础上对发展前景及未来风险进行合理预测，化肥行业在未来一段时间都会是 机遇与挑战并存，YTH集团面临着安全环保、财务和市场三个方面的风险。 最后整合哈佛分析的四个方面得出的结论针对性的给YTH集团的发展提出 几点建议。一、紧抓“国企双百行动”综合改革机会，引进现代管理方式。二、 吸收培养优秀人才，完善管理培养机制。三、发挥安全环保风险优良传统，紧跟 国家安全环保步伐。四、优化资本结构，引入战略投资者，降低资产负债率。五、 充分发挥集团资源整合优势，抢占新产品市场，建立商业新模式。 关键词：哈佛分析框架；财务分析；化肥行业 昆明理工大学专业学位硕士学位论文 基于哈佛框架的YTH公司综合财务分析 II Abstract Chemical fertilizer industry plays an indispensable role in national economy and the people's livelihood, and with the desirable development of modern agriculture and the deepening of rural revitalization, agriculture has been developing towards a green, safe and environmentally friendly trend. The current situation of the structural reform on the supply side of our country has inevitably required the structural adjustment in the chemical fertilizer industry. In this process, all enterprises will be faced with different strategic choices and operating decisions. As every business is faced with different strategic choices and operational decisions in this process, it becomes critical to choose which strategy and the operational decisions that match it. Based on the Harvard Analytical Framework as the main analytical tool, and according to the data of the case company's public statements and related information as the basis of technical analysis, from the macro-economic point of view and the background of the industry, this paper concludes from the strategic analysis that the fertilizer industry as a whole is facing the pressure of transformation and upgrading, and the transformation and upgrading of YTH Group is also urgent, YTH Group should adopt an integrated development strategy. Accounting analysis and financial analysis are then used to reveal the gaps and problems in the YTH Group's efforts to achieve its integrated developmental strategic objectives. We can see the problems and gaps through the accounting analysis is mainly reflected in the monetary funds and enterprise cash flow is tighter, the financial risk increases, inventory has been running at a higher level, the financial costs have increased, the financial risk further increased. In the financial analysis, we can see that YTH Group's operational capacity is superior, profitability and development capacity has improved, but the fixed asset turnover rate and inventory turnover rate still need to be improved, debt service capacity needs to be strengthened, the balance sheet ratio needs to be improved, profitability and development capacity is not strong enough, which is a disadvantageous position in the industry. The fertilizer industry will present both opportunities and challenges in the coming period, and the YTH Group faces risks in 昆明理工大学专业学位硕士学位论文 基于哈佛框架的YTH公司综合财务分析 III three areas: safety, environment, finance and market. Finally, put forward some future prospects of targeted proposal integrated the conclusion of four aspects reached in the Harvard analysis. First, seize the opportunity of comprehensive reform of "double hundred action of state-owned enterprises" and introduce modern management methods. Second, absorb and train outstanding talents, improve the management training mechanism. Third, develop the advantage of the safety and environmental protection tradition, keep pace with the national security and environmental protection process. Fourth, optimize the capital structure, introduce strategic investors and reduce the asset-liability ratio. Fifth, give full play to the group's advantages of resources conformity superiority, grab the new product market, and establish a new business model. Key Words: Harvard analysis framework；financial analysis；Chemical fertilizer industry 昆明理工大学专业学位硕士学位论文 基于哈佛框架的YTH公司综合财务分析 i 目录 摘要 ................................................................ I Abstract ........................................................... II 第一章 总论 .............................................. 1 1.1选题背景及研究意义 ................................. 1 1.1.1选题背景 ...................................... 1 1.1.2研究意义 ...................................... 1 1.2国内外研究现状及动态综述 ........................... 1 1.2.1国外研究现状及动态 ............................ 2 1.2.2国内研究现状及动态 ............................ 2 1.2.3国内外相关研究述评 ............................ 2 1.3研究思路与研究方法 ................................. 3 1.3.1研究思路 ...................................... 3 1.3.2研究方法 ...................................... 3 1.4研究的创新点 ....................................... 4 第二章 财务分析相关理论综述 ............................. 5 2.1传统财务分析基本理论 ............................... 5 2.1.1财务分析的界定 ................................ 5 2.1.2传统财务分析主要方法选择 ...................... 5 2.1.3传统财务分析理论的局限性 ...................... 5 2.2哈佛分析框架相关理论 ............................... 6 2.2.1哈佛分析框架的基本理论 ........................ 6 2.2.2哈佛分析框架的四个分析维度 .................... 7 2.2.3哈佛分析框架运用在化肥制造企业财务分析中的优越性 ................................................... 8 第三章 哈佛分析框架下YTH集团战略分析 .................... 9 3.1化肥行业概况 ....................................... 9 3.1.1国际化肥行业发展情况 .......................... 9 昆明理工大学专业学位硕士学位论文 基于哈佛框架的YTH公司综合财务分析 ii 3.1.2国内化肥行业发展情况 .......................... 9 3.2YTH集团基本情况 ................................... 10 3.2.1YTH集团概况 .................................. 10 3.2.2YTH集团业务领域 .............................. 10 3.3PEST分析法下YTH集团宏观环境分析 .................. 13 3.3.1政治环境分析 ................................. 13 3.3.2经济环境分析 ................................. 13 3.3.3社会文化环境分析 ............................. 14 3.3.4技术环境分析 ................................. 15 3.3.5PEST分析小结 ................................. 15 3.4 YTH集团的SWOT分析 ............................... 15 3.4.1YTH集团SWOT分析 ............................. 15 3.4.2YTH集团SWOT分析小结 ......................... 17 3.5 YTH集团战略分析小结 .............................. 18 第四章 哈佛分析框架下YTH集团会计分析 .................. 19 4.1YTH集团资产分析 ................................... 19 4.1.1资产结构分析 ................................. 19 4.1.2重要会计科目分析 ............................. 19 4.2YTH集团负债分析 ................................... 22 4.2.1负债结构分析 ................................. 22 4.2.2重要会计科目分析 ............................. 23 4.3YTH集团盈利质量分析 ............................... 24 第五章 哈佛分析框架下YTH集团财务分析及前景分析 ...