医药行业作为“生命行业”，更是受到社会各界的关注。各类医疗改革政策的出 台，一方面体现出我国政府对民生关心的问题给予高度的重视，另一方面体现出 我国对医药领域做出了更高的要求。华北制药集团作为国内外医药产业龙头企业， 至今有近七十年的发展史，在中国的医药行业中具有一定的地位。本文以石家庄 的本土企业——华北制药股份有限公司为案例，通过对其发展的内外部因素，发 展历程以及重组升级等方面进行全面系统的分析研究，针对其现阶段的经营状况， 发现其存在应收账款收回困难，企业负债大等问题，并存在产区搬迁、环保压力 大等发展上的阻碍，针对这些问题，本文提出建立全面预算机制等具有可行性的 建议，以促进企业的经营发展，同时为会计信息使用者评估该公司的投资价值提 供参考依据。 本文通过对华北制药发展的内外部因素，发展历程以及重组升级等方面进行 全面系统的分析研究，通过对企业财务报表的研究，通过对数据模型软件 mintab 的分析，改进了财务报表系统，进一步完善了财务分析框架。本文利用华北制药 股份有限公司 2006-2017 年年度财务报告，结合数据模型软件 mintab 建立的回归 度和拟合优度图，分析企业五年的偿债能力、营运能力和赢利能力，针对其现阶 段的经营状况，发现其存在应收账款收回困难，企业负债大等问题，并存在产区 搬迁、环保压力大等发展上的阻碍，针对这些问题，本文提出建立全面预算机制 等具有可行性的建议，以促进企业的经营发展，同时为会计信息使用者评估该公 司的投资价值提供参考依据。本文的创新点是将哈佛分析框架与数据模型相结合， 以哈佛分析框架为基础，融入数据模型中的拟合优度图及回归分析图等，以更为 直观易懂的图表方式加以呈现，通过分析数据模型说明该公司财务报表中的某些 数据的关联性，也通过数据模型说明日常关注的数据可能并不是我们所认定某一 现象形成的主因，并通过这一数据分析给予相应的观点及建议。 关键词，哈佛分析框架；财务报表分析；拟合优度；回归分析；华北制药Abstract As a life industry, the pharmaceutical industry is also concerned by all sectors of society. The introduction of various medical reform policies, on the one hand, reflects the government's concern for the people's livelihood to give a high degree of attention, on the other hand, reflects that China has made higher requirements in the field of medicine. North China Pharmaceutical Group, as a leading enterprise in the pharmaceutical industry at home and abroad, has a history of nearly 70 years. It plays an important role in the pharmaceutical industry in China. In this paper, Shijiazhuang's local enterprise-North China Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. as a case, through the development of internal and external factors, the development process and restructuring and upgrading of a comprehensive and systematic analysis and research, in view of its current operating conditions, found that there are difficulties in the recovery of accounts receivable, enterprise debt and other issues. In view of these problems, this paper puts forward some feasible suggestions, such as establishing a comprehensive budget mechanism, to promote the operation and development of enterprises, and to provide reference for accounting information users to evaluate the investment value of the company. This paper analyzes the internal and external factors, the development process and the reorganization and upgrading of North China Pharmaceutical. Through the study of the financial statements of enterprises and the analysis of the data model software mintab, the financial statement system is improved and the financial analysis framework is further improved. Based on the annual financial report of North China Pharmaceutical Company Limited from 2006 to 2017 and the regression degree and goodness-of-fit diagram established by the data model software mintab, this paper analyzes the five-year solvency, operating ability and profitability of the enterprise. According to the current operating situation of the enterprise, it is found that there are difficulties in recovering the accounts receivable and the enterprise is liable. In view of these problems, this paper puts forward some feasible suggestions, such as establishing a comprehensive budget mechanism, to promote the operation and development ofenterprises, and to provide a reference for accounting information users to evaluate the investment value of the company. The innovation of this paper is to combine the Harvard analysis framework with the data model, based on the Harvard analysis framework, integrate the goodness-of-fit diagram and regression analysis diagram into the data model, and present them in a more intuitive and easy-to-understand way. Through the analysis of the data model, the correlation of some data in the company's financial statements is illustrated. The data model also shows that the data of daily concern may not be the main cause of a certain phenomenon, and through this data analysis gives the corresponding views and suggestions. Keywords: Harvard Analysis Framework, Financial statement analysis, Goodness of fit, Regression analysis, North China pharmaceutical company.I 目 录 第一章 绪 论...................................................................................................................1 一、研究背景及意义...................................................................................................1 （一）研究背景.......................................................................................................1 （二）研究意义.......................................................................................................1 二、国内外研究现状...................................................................................................2 （一）国外研究现状...............................................................................................2 （二）国内研究现状...............................................................................................3 （三）研究现状评价...............................................................................................5 三、研究思路与方法...................................................................................................5 （一）研究思路与研究框架...................................................................................5 （二）研究内容.......................................................................................................7 （三）研究方法.......................................................................................................7 四、本文创新之处及不足...........................................................................................8 （一）本文创新之处...............................................................................................8 （二）本文局限与不足...........................................................................................8 第二章 财务报表分析的相关概念及基本理论.............................................................9 一、财务报表分析的相关概念及基本理论...............................................................9 （一）财务报表分析的定义...................................................................................9 （二）财务报表分析的方法...................................................................................9 （三）财务报表分析的缺陷.................................................................................10 二、哈佛分析框架下的财务分析的相关概念及基本理论.....................................11 （一）哈佛分析框架下的财务分析的提出.........................................................11 （二）哈佛分析框架下的财务分析的思路.........................................................12 （三）哈佛分析框架下的财务分析的优势.........................................................15 三、回归分析的相关概念及基本理论.....................................................................15 （一）回归分析的提出.........................................................................................15 （二）回归分析的思路.........................................................................................15 （三）回归直线的拟合优度.................................................................................16II 第三章 华北制药外部环境及行业竞争状况分析.......................................................17 一、企业背景分析.....................................................................................................17 二、对华北制药的 PEST 分析..................................................................................18 （一）政治法律环境.............................................................................................18 （二）经济环境.....................................................................................................18 （三）社会文化环境.............................................................................................19 （四）技术环境.....................................................................................................19 三、对华北制药的波特五力分析.............................................................................19 （一）供应商议价能力.........................................................................................20 （二）购买者议价能力.........................................................................................20 （三）新进入者威胁.............................................................................................20 （四）替代品的威胁.............................................................................................21 （五）行业竞争者的竞争.....................................................................................21 四、华北制药 SWOT 分析........................................................................................21 （一）优势分析 S..................................................................................................21 （二）劣势分析 W ................................................................................................22 （三）发展机会 O.................................................................................................23 （四）发展威胁 T..................................................................................................23 第四章 华北制药会计分析与评价...............................................................................25 一、 华北制药资产计量与质量分析与评价...........................................................25 （一）存货计量与质量分析与评价.....................................................................25 （二）应收账款质量分析与评价.........................................................................26 （三）固定资产质量分析与评价.........................................................................29 二、华北制药负债质量分析与评价.........................................................................32 （一）负债质量分析与评价.................................................................................32 （二）资本结构与融资方式.................................................................................35 三、华北制药盈利质量分析与评价.........................................................................36 第五章 华北制药财务分析与评价...............................................................................38 一、偿债能力分析与评价.........................................................................................38 （一）短期偿债能力分析与评价.........................................................................38 （二）长期偿债能力分析与评价.........................................................................39 二、营运能力分析与评价.........................................................................................39III 三、盈利能力分析与评价.........................................................................................40 四、发展能力分析与评价.........................................................................................42 五、整体财务能力评价.............................................................................................43 第六章 华北制药前景分析与风险预测.......................................................................44 一、战略优化策略.....................................................................................................44 （一）发展战略上的风险分析及预测.................................................................44 （二）发展战略预测.............................................................................................45 二、财务风险及应对措施.........................................................................................46 （一）应收账款增大的风险.................................................................................46 （二）库存庞大的风险.........................................................................................47 （三）负债比重过大的风险.................................................................................47 第七章 总 结.................................................................................................................48