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MBA毕业论文_哈佛分析框架下黔源电力财务报表分析DOC

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I 摘要 水力发电属于清洁能源,对国民经济发展具有重要意义。通过关注水电上市 公司的运营状况,我们可以了解整个水电行业的现状。全国只有 17 家以水力发电 为主营业务的上市公司,黔源电力股份有限公司则是其中一家,在整个水力发电 行业具有举足轻重的地位;同时也是贵州省唯一的一家电力上市企业,对贵州省 的电力动能供应产生了不可忽视的影响。因此,本文将以黔源电集团的财务状况 作为本文研究对象,进行分析评价,为黔源电力集团的管理团队进行公司经营决 策提供依据,并为投资者进行投资决策时提供可靠的信息。传统财务报表是孤立 的财务分析,针对传统财务报表分析的不足,本文选用哈佛分析框架对贵州黔源 电力集团表进行财务报表分析。 本文根据哈佛分析框架的四个分析维度,从战略、会计、财务和前景四个方 面分析了黔源电力的商业环境、财务状况和发展潜力。战略分析明确了黔源电力 集团的经营环境和发展方向;会计分析评价了公司的资产质量状况、利润状况、 以及现金流量状况。基于战略分析和会计分析进行财务分析,纵向分析评价了公 司的成长能力、横向分析评价了黔源电力各项指标与同行业其他公司的差距,杜 邦分析法评估了公司的整体财务状况。最后,文章从定性和定量两个方面预测了 黔源电力的发展前景和投资价值,并为经营者改善公司目前的经营状况提出自己 的观点,为投资者就“这只股票是否值得投资”提出自己的建议。 本文通过对贵州黔源电力集团进行哈佛分析框架分析,得出结论如下, 目前,黔源电力固定资产投入基本完成,已经进入稳定的经营期。但公司盈 利状况不稳定,经营业务单一,营业收入严重受气候环境影响,基本靠天吃饭; 资本结构不合理、资产负债率极高、财务风险高、利润被高额的财务费用所吞噬, 侵害了股东价值。同时,正是由于高额的财务费用这些表面现象,让黔源电力的 投资价值被市场低估。但是,黔源电力现金流量充足,资产营运效率在不断地提 高。随着企业改善自身经营决策,提高管理水平、以及偿还有息负债,黔源电力 将摆脱经营困境,被低估的市场价值会逐渐凸显出来。 无论从资产结构还是从经营模式来讲,黔源电力在水力发电领域是一家典型 的上市公司,本文是将哈佛分析框架应用于黔源电力集团,对于其他 16 家水力发 电上市公司具有借鉴和参考意义,其他类似行业的上市公司也可以以此作为参考。 关键词,财务分析,水力发电,哈佛框架,黔源电力ABSTRACT II ABSTRACT Hydropower is a clean energy source, which is of great significance to the development of national economy. The status quo of the whole hydropower industry can be understood by paying attention to the operation status of the listed hydropower companies. There are only 17 listed companies with hydropower as the main business in the country, Qianyuan Electric Power Co., Ltd. is one of them, which plays an important role in the whole hydropower industry. At the same time, it is the only power listed enterprise in Guizhou province, which has an indelible influence on the power kinetic energy supply in Guizhou province. Therefore, this paper will take the financial situation of Qianyuan Electric Power Group as the research object, and carry on the analysis and evaluation, which is the pipe of Qianyuan Electric Power Group. The management team provides the basis for the decision-making of the company, and provides reliable information for the investors to make the investment decision. The traditional financial statements are isolated financial analysis. In view of the deficiency of the traditional financial statements analysis, this paper chooses the most popular financial analysis method-Harvard analysis framework, to analyze the financial statements of Qianyuan Electric Power year. First of all, this paper expounds the theoretical knowledge of Harvard analytical framework. Then, according to the four dimensions of Harvard analysis framework, the operating environment, financial situation and development potential of Qianyuan Electric Power are analyzed from four aspects: strategy, accounting, finance and prospect. Strategic analysis has made Qianyuan electric power clear. The management environment and development direction of the group; accounting analysis and evaluation of the company's assets quality, profit, and cash flow status. Based on strategic analysis and accounting analysis, financial analysis, vertical analysis and evaluation of the growth ability of the company, horizontal analysis and evaluation of Qianyuan electric power index and other companies in the same industry gap, DuPont analysis and evaluation of the comprehensive financial situation of the enterprise. Finally, the paper forecasts the development prospect and investment value of Qianyuan electric power from both qualitative and quantitative aspects, and puts forward its own viewpoint for operators to improve the current operating conditions of the company. For investors to put forwardABSTRACT III their own is this stock worth investing Recommendations Based on the Harvard analysis framework of Qianyuan Electric Power, this paper draws the following conclusions: at present, the fixed assets investment of Qianyuan Electric Power is basically completed, and it has entered a stable period of operation. But the profit situation of the company is unstable, the business operation is single, the business income is seriously affected by the climate and environment, the basic rely on the sky to eat; The capital structure is unreasonable, the ratio of assets and liabilities is very high, the financial risk is high, the profit is swallowed up by the high financial expenses, and the shareholder value is infringed. At the same time, because of the high financial costs, the investment value of Qianyuan Electric Power is underestimated by the market. However, Qianyuan has sufficient cash flow and assets camp The efficiency of transportation is constantly improving. As enterprises improve their own business decisions, improve their management level, and repay interest-bearing liabilities, Qianyuan Electric Power will get out of the business predicament, and the undervalued market value will be gradually highlighted. This paper applies Harvard analytical framework to Qianyuan Electric Power Group, which can be used as a reference for other 16 listed hydropower companies, and other listed companies in similar industries can also use this as a reference.. Keywords: Financial Analysis,Hydro Power,Harvard Framework,Qianyuan Power目录 IV 目 录 第一章 绪论.....................................................................................................................1 1.1 研究背景.............................................................................................................1 1.2 研究目的.............................................................................................................2 1.3 研究思路、方法及论文框架.............................................................................2 1.3.1 研究基本思路.........................................................................................2 1.3.2 研究方法.................................................................................................2 1.3.3 论文框架.................................................................................................3 1.4 本文结论和创新.................................................................................................4 1.4.1 本文结论.................................................................................................4 1.4.2 本文创新.................................................................................................4 第二章 哈佛分析框架理论基础及文献综述.................................................................5 2.1 哈佛分析框架的提出.........................................................................................5 2.2 哈佛分析框架的基本内容.................................................................................5 2.2.1 战略分析.................................................................................................5 2.2.2 会计分析.................................................................................................6 2.2.3 财务分析.................................................................................................7 2.2.4 前景分析.................................................................................................7 2.3 文献综述.............................................................................................................8 2.3.1 国外文献综述.........................................................................................8 2.3.2 国内文献综述.........................................................................................9 2.4 本章小结...........................................................................................................11 第三章 战略分析...........................................................................................................12 3.1 贵州黔源电力背景介绍...................................................................................12 3.1.1 黔源电力企业简介...............................................................................12 3.1.2 黔源电力经营概况...............................................................................13 3.2 水电行业宏观环境分析(PEST 分析)........................................................16 3.3 行业分析...........................................................................................................20 3.3.1 行业特征分析.......................................................................................20 3.3.2 波特五力模型分析...............................................................................20 3.4 贵州黔源电力“SWOT 模型”分析..............................................................21目录 V 3.5 本章小结...........................................................................................................22 第四章 会计分析.........................................................................................................24 4.1 会计分析对象的选择.......................................................................................24 4.2 资产负债表分析...............................................................................................25 4.2.1 固定资产折旧会计估计比较...............................................................25 4.2.2 应收账款会计估计比较.......................................................................27 4.2.3 存货分析...............................................................................................28 4.3 利润表分析.......................................................................................................28 4.3.1 利润表构成分析...................................................................................28 4.3.2 收入成本分析.......................................................................................29 4.4 现金流量表分析...............................................................................................30 4.4.1 主表分析................................................................................................30 4.4.2 副表分析................................................................................................32 4.4.3 现金流量表与资产负债表结合分析...................................................32 4.4.4 现金流量表与利润表结合分析...........................................................34 4.5 本章小结...........................................................................................................34 第五章 财务分析...........................................................................................................35 5.1 杜邦分析...........................................................................................................35 5.1.1 杜邦分析框架........................................................................................35 5.1.2 盈利性指标分析....................................................................................37 5.1.3 偿债能力分析........................................................................................38 5.1.4 营运能力指标分析................................................................................39 5.2 趋势分析...........................................................................................................40 5.2.1 总体趋势分析........................................................................................40 5.2.2 成长性指标分析....................................................................................43 5.3 同行业对比分析...............................................................................................43 5.4 本章小结...........................................................................................................46 第六章 前景分析...........................................................................................................47 6.1 定性分析...........................................................................................................47 6.2 定量分析...........................................................................................................48 6.2.1 市盈率模型...........................................................................................48 6.2.2 市净率模型...........................................................................................49 6.2.3 自由现金流量模型...............................................................................51目录 VI 6.2.4 EVA 分析................................................................................................57 6.3 本章小结...........................................................................................................58 第七章 结论、建议及不足...........................................................................................60 7.1 结论...................................................................................................................60 7.2 对黔源电力的意见及建议...............................................................................60 7.3 本文不足..........................................................................................................61 7.4 未来研究方向..................................................................................................61 致谢.............................................................................................................................62