随着精准扶贫、精准脱贫，实现标准下农村贫困人口全面脱贫，贫困县全部 摘帽，彻底解决区域性整体贫要求的提出，各金融机构积极响应国家号召，在政 府部门、相关政策鼓励与支持下，中国人民银行、银行保障监督委员会等金融监 管部门纷纷出台相关指引，金融机构响应号召成立“三农”类业务部门、制定业 务措施，开拓“三农”类金融业务市场。从农户信贷看，全国信贷支持依然存在 供给不足问题，主要原因是金融机构前期对农村市场投入不足，体现在产品开发、 资金投入、人员配备等方面。而体量较小的金融机构由于产品创新不足、管理模 式粗放、风险防控手段单一、农村金融环境建设迟缓等问题，造成了目前农户贷 款难、难贷款问题突出。与此同时，由于农户整体素质、知识水平低，价值创造 能力弱，经济收入来源少，正常信贷缺少有效抵押，资金投向多为自然风险较大、 收入较低下的种养殖业，直接导致农户小额贷款信用风险敞口较大。金融机构要 做大、做强“三农”业务，实现长远、可持续发展，控制好农户小额贷款风险是 关键。 本文采用文献查阅法对农村金融及农户小额贷款的相关理论进行论述，通过 选取全国深度贫困“三区三州”怒江农行的农户小额贷款为样本，归纳目前在农 户小额贷款风险管理方面存在的问题。采用定量和定性方式，对3899个农户小 额贷款样本贷款要素使用信息熵方式选取重要造成风险的重要影响因素，结合 Logistic模型对选取的要素进行显著性分析，构建影响农户小额贷款风险影响因 素回归模型，总结关键农户小额贷款风险管理的关键影响因素，为怒江农行控制 农户小额贷款信用风险提供理论依据及现实指导意见；从金融机构角度出发，分 析现阶段所处的内部外环境，针对金融机构内部风险管控、外部环境建设提出具 体、针对性的意见和措施。 本文最后得出个人信用记录、担保方式、贷款金额、贷款用途是影响农户小 额贷款是否会形成逾期关键要素，需要进行重点关注。结合在研究过程中发现的 问题，提出一些管理措施和意见，包括：加强信用系统建设、加强贷款品种创新、 创新额度核定模式、确保贷款资金用途、加强队伍建设等方面。 关键词：农户小额贷款；Logistic回归模型；风险控制； 昆明理工大学专业学位硕士学位论文农行农户小额贷款风险管理研究 V Abstract Chinahasliftedallruralpoorpeopleoutofpovertyunderthestandardof targetedpovertyalleviationandtargetedpovertyalleviation,andallpoorcounties havebeenliftedoutofpoverty.Region-widepovertyrequirementsareraised. Financialinstitutionsactivelyrespondedtothenationalcall,whichwasencouraged andsupportedbygovernmentdepartmentsandrelevantpoliciesandguidedby relevantpoliciesofthepeople'sbankofChina,thebankingregulatorycommission andotherfinancialregulatoryauthorities.Inresponsetothecall,financialinstitutions havesuccessivelyestablishedrelevantbusinessdepartmentsof"agriculture,rural areasandfarmers"andformulatedbusinessmeasurestoexpandthemarketof "agriculture,ruralareasandfarmers"financialcreditbusiness.Fromtheperspective offarmers'credit,thereisstillaproblemofinsufficientsupplyofcreditsupporting farmersnationwide.Themainreasonisthatfinancialinstitutionshavenotinvested enoughintheruralmarketintheearlystage,whichisreflectedintheaspectsof productdevelopment,capitalinvestmentandpersonnelallocation,includingthe investmentinthecreditfundsoffarmers,theinvestmentinscienceandtechnology, andtheinvestmentinpersonnel.Atthesametime,duetotheextensivemanagement mode,insufficientproductinnovation,extensivemanagementmode,insufficientrisk preventionandcontrolmeans,andtheslowconstructionofruralfinancial environment,theproblemsofdifficultloansforfarmersarestillprominent.Atthe sametime,theoverallqualityandknowledgeleveloffarmersarerelativelylow,the abilitytocreatevalueisweak,thesourceofeconomicincomeissmall,thenormal creditislackofeffectivemortgage,thecapitalinvestmentismainlyinthebreeding andbreedingindustrywithhighnaturalriskandlowincome,andthemarketriskis high.Asaresult,farmersaredirectlyexposedtothecreditriskofsmall loans.Financialinstitutionsshouldexpandandstrengthenthebusinessof"agriculture, ruralareasandfarmers"andrealizelong-termandsustainabledevelopment. Theliteraturereviewmethodwasadoptedtodiscussthetheoriesrelatedtorural financeandpeasanthouseholdsmallloan.Byselectingthepeasanthouseholdsmall 昆明理工大学专业学位硕士学位论文农行农户小额贷款风险管理研究 VI loanofagriculturalbankofNujiang,"threedistrictsandthreestates"withdeep povertyinChinaasthesample,theauthorsummarizedtheexistingproblemsinthe riskmanagementofpeasanthouseholdsmallloan.Thequantitativeandqualitative methodswereusedtoselecttheimportantinfluencingfactorsofriskfrom3,899 peasanthouseholds'smallloansamplesbyusingtheinformationentropymethod.The Logisticmodelwasusedtocarryoutsignificanceanalysisontheselectedfactorsto constructtheregressionmodelofinfluencingfactorsofpeasanthouseholds'small loanrisks.Thekeyfactorsaffectingtheriskmanagementofsmallloanstokey farmersweresummarized,whichprovidedtheoreticalbasisandpracticalguidancefor ABCNujiangbranchtocontrolthecreditriskofsmallloanstofarmers.Fromthe perspectiveoffinancialinstitutions,thecurrentinternalandexternalenvironmentwas analyzed.Specificandtargetedopinionsandmeasuresoninternalriskcontroland externalenvironmentconstructionoffinancialinstitutionswereputforward. Finally,thispaperconcludesthatpersonalcreditrecord,guaranteemethod,loan amountandloanusearethekeyfactorsaffectingwhetherMicrofinanceforfarmersns willbeoverdue,whichshouldbepaidmoreattentionto.Somemanagementmeasures andsuggestionswereputforwardfortheproblemsfoundintheresearchprocess, including:strengtheningtheconstructionofcreditsystem,strengtheningthe innovationofloanvarieties,innovatingthequotaverificationmodel,ensuringtheuse ofloanfunds,andstrengtheningtheteambuilding. Keywords:Microfinanceforfarmers,TheLogisticregressionmodel,Riskcontrol. 昆明理工大学专业学位硕士学位论文农行农户小额贷款风险管理研究 i 目录 摘要...................................................................................................IV Abstract...............................................................................................V 第一章绪论........................................................................................1 1.1研究背景及意义...................................................................1 1.1.1研究背景......................................................................................1 1.1.2选题意义......................................................................................2 1.2国内外文献综述...................................................................3 1.2.1国外研究综述..............................................................................4 1.2.2国内研究综述..............................................................................5 1.3研究方法、内容及思路.......................................................7 1.3.1研究方法......................................................................................7 1.3.2研究内容......................................................................................7 1.3.3研究思路......................................................................................8 第二章概念界定及理论基础...........................................................9 2.1农户小额贷款概述...............................................................9 2.1.1农户小额贷款概念......................................................................9 2.1.2农户小额贷款特征....................................................................10 2.1.3农户小额贷款开展情况............................................................11 2.2农村金融理论概述.............................................................13 2.2.1农业信贷补贴论........................................................................13 2.2.2农村金融市场论........................................................................14 2.2.3不完全竞争市场理论................................................................14 2.3信贷风险管理理论.............................................................15 2.3.1信息不对称理论........................................................................15 2.3.2信贷配给理论............................................................................16 2.3.3信贷风险管理理论....................................................................17 2.4农户小额贷款风险表现形式.................................