随着我国社会、经济的持续、快速发展，特别是环渤海经济区的开发，对石油及 石油制品的需求不断增加，石油化工行业成为我国的重要支柱产业，更成为带动区域 经济发展的核心。在这一背景下，华北石化千万吨炼油项目在其一次原油加工能力的 基础上进行产品质量升级与安全环保技术改造，以新带老实现减排、清洁生产，满足 循环经济的要求，生产高品质的油品满足市场的需求。项目是中国石油提出的国内大 型炼油项目，是保障华北油区的和谐、稳定、发展的龙头项目，是保障国内成品油供 应的标志性项目，因此，研究其可行性具有重要的现实意义。 本文立足于项目可行性研究的基本内容和方法，运用波特五力分析模型、等风险 图、概率分析模型、模糊综合评价法等从国家政策、产品市场、技术方案、资源及公 共设施、厂址方案、环境和生态影响、投资及经济影响、社会影响及风险研究、企业 竞争力分析等多方面进行可行性分析与论证，得出项目的建设是必要的和可行的的结 论。在当前全球经济危机的影响下，增大投资拉动国内的需求增长显得尤为重要，本 文的可行性分析、论证，对石油化工行业新一轮的景气项目投资和振兴投资有着重要 的借鉴意义。 关键词，华北石化、炼油项目、可行性研究ABSTRACT With the social and economic sustainable and fast development of our country, especially the development of the Bohai Rim economy, the demand for petroleum and its product has been increasing, petrochemical industry becomes the important pillar industry of our country, and it even becomes the core of driving area economic development. Under this background, Huabei petrochemical（HBPEC）10 million tons oil refining project is undergoing product quality upgrade and technical reconstruction of safety and environmental protection on the basis of its primary petroleum processing capability, drainage reducing and cleaner production can be realized with the new replacing the old, and the request of the circular economy can be satisfied, and high quality oil product can be produced to meet the request of the market. The project is the domestic large-scale oil refining project put forward by Petrochina. It is a leading project that safeguards harmoniousness, stabilization and development of Huabei oildom. It is a symbolic project that guarantees domestic product oil supply. So it has a important operation significance to study its feasibility. The paper is established in basic content and method of the project feasibility study. Potter’s five strength analysis models, equal risk map, probability analysis models, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method etc. are used, and the feasibility analysis and argumentation of the project is carried through in the paper from aspects of national policy, product market, technical proposal, resources and public utilities, plant location proposal, environmental and ecological impact, investment and economic impact, social impact and risk study, enterprise competitiveness analysis, and a conclusion that the construction of project is essential and feasible is arrived at. With the impact of present global economic crisis, it is especially important to increase investment and drive domestic demand growth. The feasibility analysis and argumentation in the paper must be very useful for the reference of new round prosperous project investment of petrochemical industry. Keywords，HBPEC，Refining project，Feasibility study目 录 第一章 问题的提出…1 1.1 问题的提出…1 1.2 可行性研究的基本思路和主要内容8 1.2.1 可行性研究的基本概念8 1.2.2 可行性研究的方法和内容…8 1.3 本章小结…9 第二章 政策及市场研究…10 2.1 政策可行性研究10 2.1.1 发展规划分析10 2.1.2 产业政策分析11 2.1.3 行业准入分析12 2.2 产品市场研究…13 2.2.1 国内成品油供需预测…13 2.2.2 华北石化目标市场分析15 2.2.3 航煤市场研究17 2.3 市场竞争力分析19 2.4 产品市场研究结论…24 2.5 本章小结…24 第三章 技术、资源及公用设施研究25 3.1 建设规模及产品方案25 3.2 总工艺流程28 3.3 原油资源…34 3.4 水资源37 3.5 公用设施…39 3.5.1 供电39 3.5.2 电信40 3.5.3 供热资源40 3.5.4 系统供风41 3.5.5 系统供氮42 3.6 资源节约措施…423.7 节能分析…43 3.8 本章小结…45 第四章 厂址及环境影响研究46 4.1 项目社会、自然条件…46 4.2 厂址选择…49 4.3 环境和生态现状50 4.4 项目污染物分析51 4.5 环境影响分析…55 4.6 环境管理和监测59 4.7 本章小结…60 第五章 经济及社会影响研究61 5.1 投资估算及资金筹措61 5.2 财务评价…63 5.3 经济影响分析…70 5.4 社会影响效果分析…73 5.5 社会适应性分析74 5.6 本章小结…75 第六章 风险及竞争力分析…76 6.1 风险识别…76 6.2 风险指标体系…79 6.3 风险评价…80 6.4 风险防范…82 6.5 竞争力分析92 6.5.1 确定竞争力指标体系…93 6.5.2 确定指标权重94 6.5.3 利用模糊综合评价模型进行评价94 6.5.4 竞争策略97 6.6 本章小结…97 6.7 本文研究结论…98