本文运用现代企业管理理论，根据商业计划书编制的要求，首先对 YHL 休闲养老 项目所在城市的经济发展状况进行了分析预测，再运用波特的竞争战略理论分析了当地 房地产市场和竟争态势，接着运用 SWOT 矩阵分析法确定了公司的竞争优势、目标市 场定位、盈利模式和开发建设方案，最后分别对开发建设方案实施所需的资金需求进行 分析和阐述，编制计算相关的财务报表和净现值、内部投资报酬率等投资评价指标，并 在进行敏感度分析与风险分析之后给出了决策建议。 研究表明，位于中国广东省湛江市遂溪的 YHL 养老休闲项目，地理位置优越，交 通便利，有丰富的水资源及原生态景观资源，是国内为数不多、得天独厚的集养老养生、 休闲旅游、商务运动、度假居住等复合功能于一体的高端生态旅居园区，项目建成后将 成为具有较强辐射能力和带动能力的区域文化经济中心的一部分，形成一定的区域优 势，促进整个地区的良性发展，促进当地现代综合服务业等相关产业的发展；提高当地 民众长远收入水平，提高生活水平，增加收入；提高社会对养老问题的重视，解决部分 老人养老问题，推动中国养老事业发展，促进社会经济健康发展。 结论表明，本项目具有较好的社会经济效益和良好的投资回报收益。 关键字，项目；分析；结论II Abstract In this paper, the plan was made based on modern enterprise management theory, and to meet the requirements of business plan preparation. First, the plan forecasted the economic situation of the city where the YHL leisure pension project located. The Porter's theory of competitive strategy was used on analyzing the local real estate market and the competitive situation. Then the SWOT matrix analysis method was used, which was to determine the company's competitive advantage, target market, profit model, and the development and construction plans. Finally, the plan analyzed and elaborated the capital needed in the implementation of the whole program, got the preparation of financial statements and the related calculation of net present value, internal rate of investment return, and gave some recommendations on performing sensitivity analysis and risk analysis. Studies have shown that: YHL pension leisure project located in Suixi， Zhanjiang City, Guangdong Province, China，is a superior project. This park could be one of a few unique high-end eco-living park for the old-age health, leisure, business, vacation and other complex functions reside place, for which have convenient transportation, abundant water resources and the original ecological landscapes. When the project completed it will become a part of the cultural and economic center of the region with strong radiation and driving ability. And also it could promote the healthy development of the whole region, and enhance the level of local service industry and other industries related. In a long term, it will be help to improve the local people’s income, enhance their living standard. At the same time, the project could get great attention of the society to senior people of their pension problems, and settle some elderly pension problems, which in some way could promote China’s pension business and the healthy development of the social economy. Conclusion shows that the project could get good social and economic benefits and the investors could get good returns from this investment. keywords，project; analysis; conclusionIII 目 录 摘要...........................................................................................................................................I Abstract ......................................................................................................................................II 图表清单................................................................................................................................... X 第一章 绪论..............................................................................................................................1 1.1 研究背景和意义.............................................................................................................. 1 1.2 文献综述.......................................................................................................................... 2 1.2.1 商业计划书编制方法与过程相关理论................................................................... 2 1.2.2 房地产开发理论综述............................................................................................... 3 1.2.3 家庭养老——血亲价值论阐述............................................................................... 5 1.2.4 管理理论综述........................................................................................................... 6 1.2.5 目标营销（target marketing）STP 战略理论......................................................... 8 1.3 研究的方法和思路.......................................................................................................... 8 1.3.1 研究的方法............................................................................................................... 8 1.3.2 数据与信息分析....................................................................................................... 9 1.4 研究内容与结构安排...................................................................................................... 9 第二章 公司介绍....................................................................................................................10 2.1 公司情况........................................................................................................................ 10 2.1.1 幸福家园置业有限公司......................................................................................... 10 2.1.2 美好家园健养投资有限公司................................................................................. 10 2.1.3 YHL 医疗服务中心................................................................................................. 10 2.2 公司架构........................................................................................................................ 11 2.3 公司组织架构................................................................................................................ 11 2.3.1 董事会..................................................................................................................... 11 2.3.2 公司治理................................................................................................................. 11 2.4 部门职责........................................................................................................................ 12 2.4.1 开发部职责............................................................................................................. 12 2.4.2 研发设计部职责..................................................................................................... 12 2.4.3 成本部职责............................................................................................................. 12IV 2.4.4 营销部职责.............................................................................................................. 13 2.4.5 工程部职责............................................................................................................. 13 2.4.6 行政人事部职责..................................................................................................... 13 2.4.7 合约部职责............................................................................................................. 13 2.4.8 财务部职责............................................................................................................. 14 2.5 养老岗位职责................................................................................................................ 14 2.5.1 会员服务部经理..................................................................................................... 14 2.5.2 健康管理部经理..................................................................................................... 14 2.5.3 服务支持部经理..................................................................................................... 15 2.5.4 生活秘书................................................................................................................. 15 2.5.5 健康秘书................................................................................................................. 15 2.5.6 快乐秘书................................................................................................................. 15 2.5.7 会员关系主管......................................................................................................... 15 2.6 服务内容........................................................................................................................ 16 2.6.1 医疗服务................................................................................................................. 16 2.6.2 生活服务................................................................................................................. 16 2.6.3 快乐服务................................................................................................................. 16 2.7 管理团队........................................................................................................................ 16 2.8 本章小结........................................................................................................................ 17 第三章 项目建设背景及建设内容........................................................................................18 3.1 老年人口现状................................................................................................................ 18 3.2 老年人服务现状............................................................................................................ 18 3.2.1 养老服务机构。..................................................................................................... 19 3.2.2 智障与精神疾病服务机构。................................................................................. 19 3.2.3 湛江市老年人口概况............................................................................................. 20 3.2.4 湛江养老机构概况................................................................................................. 20 3.3 养老事业规划................................................................................................................ 20 3.3.1 国家政策支持......................................................................................................... 20 3.3.2 国家鼓励发展老龄服务......................................................................................... 21 3.3.3 养老服务需求......................................................................................................... 22V 3.3.4 社会和经济效益..................................................................................................... 22 3.4 湛江市养老机构现状.................................................................................................... 23 3.4.1 设计不合理、功能相对单一、服务范围狭窄..................................................... 23 3.4.2 设施陈旧、管理水平落后..................................................................................... 23 3.4.3 缺乏专业培训......................................................................................................... 23 3.5 项目概况........................................................................................................................ 23 3.6 主要规划指标................................................................................................................ 24 3.7 选址及规划布局............................................................................................................ 24 3.8 项目总体规划设计........................................................................................................ 24 3.9 规划建设内容................................................................................................................ 36 3.10 适老设计...................................................................................................................... 37 3.10.1 体现专业照料老年人的特色，........................................................................... 37 3.10.2 智能化管理........................................................................................................... 37 3.10.3 公共部分适老设计............................................................................................... 37 3.10.4 养老公寓适老设计............................................................................................... 37 3.10.5 介护机构适老设计............................................................................................... 39 3.10.6 室内适老化设计................................................................................................... 39 3.10.7 功能用房配备....................................................................................................... 43 3.10.8 医疗护理配备....................................................................................................... 43 3.11 本章小结...................................................................................................................... 44 第四章 市场分析....................................................................................................................45 4.1 美国养老服务模式........................................................................................................ 45 4.1.1 美国养老模式......................................................................................................... 45 4.1.2 美国的养老服务..................................................................................................... 45 4.2 中国养老服务模式 ........................................................................................................ 46 4.2.1 传统的养老服务模式............................................................................................. 46 4.2.2 社区养老服务模式................................................................................................. 46 4.2.3 机构养老服务模式................................................................................................. 46 4.3 湛江市国民经济发展情况............................................................................................ 47 4.4 湛江市商品房近三年供应和成交情况........................................................................ 50VI 4.5 市场调研........................................................................................................................ 52 4.5.1 客户调查数据分析................................................................................................. 52 4.5.2 收入来源与消费支出............................................................................................. 55 4.5.3 目前主要养老问题分析......................................................................................... 56 4.5.4 目前养老机构存在问题......................................................................................... 56 4.5.5 养老配套设施......................................................................................................... 57 4.5.7 购买决策及意愿分析............................................................................................. 61 4.5.8 费用分析................................................................................................................. 62 4.5.9 市场调查分析......................................................................................................... 63 4.6 本章小结 ........................................................................................................................ 64 第五章 项目定位....................................................................................................................65 5.1 老年人的心理特征........................................................................................................ 65 5.1.1 老年人小心谨慎..................................................................................................... 65 5.1.2 老年人“固执” ......................................................................................................... 65 5.1.3 老年人爱“唠叨” ..................................................................................................... 65 5.1.4 老年人的“怀旧情结” ............................................................................................. 65 5.1.5 老年人的依赖心理................................................................................................. 65 5.2 养老观念转变................................................................................................................ 66 5.2.1 居住观念的改变..................................................................................................... 66 5.2.2 居住状况的需求..................................................................................................... 66 5.3 老年人消费特征............................................................................................................ 66 5.4 老年人的需要................................................................................................................ 67 5.4.1 自尊需要................................................................................................................. 67 5.4.2 尊敬需要................................................................................................................. 67 5.4.3 工作需要................................................................................................................. 68 5.4.4 交往需要................................................................................................................. 68 5.4.5 坦诚需要................................................................................................................. 68 5.4.6 亲情需要................................................................................................................. 68 5.4.7 康乐需要................................................................................................................. 68 5.4.8 支配需要................................................................................................................. 69VII 5.4.9 安静需要................................................................................................................. 69 5.4.10 依存需要............................................................................................................... 69 5.5 目标客户分析................................................................................................................ 69 5.5.1 目标客户................................................................................................................. 69 5.5.2 客户需求特征......................................................................................................... 69 5.5.3 核心需求分析......................................................................................................... 70 5.6 项目定位........................................................................................................................ 70 5.7 本章小结........................................................................................................................ 71 第六章 市场营销....................................................................................................................72 6.1 项目概况........................................................................................................................ 72 6.2 项目特点........................................................................................................................ 72 6.2.1 气候资源................................................................................................................. 72 6.2.2 湖水与湿地............................................................................................................. 72 6.2.3 火山岩温泉............................................................................................................. 73 6.3 市场需求分析................................................................................................................ 73 6.4 项目 SWOT 分析 .......................................................................................................... 73 6.4.1 优势......................................................................................................................... 73 6.4.2 劣势......................................................................................................................... 74 6.4.3 机遇......................................................................................................................... 74 6.4.4 挑战......................................................................................................................... 75 6.5 主要房地产楼盘分析.................................................................................................... 75 6.6 产品定位........................................................................................................................ 78 6.6.1 目标定位................................................................................................................. 78 6.6.2 主体广告语............................................................................................................. 78 6.7 价格策略........................................................................................................................ 79 6.7.1 定价原则................................................................................................................. 79 6.7.2 价格策略................................................................................................................. 79 6.8 销售计划........................................................................................................................ 79 6.8.1 销售周期................................................................................................................. 79 6.8.2 销控......................................................................................................................... 80VIII 6.8.3 签约......................................................................................................................... 80 6.8.4 折扣......................................................................................................................... 80 6.9 广告媒体计划................................................................................................................ 80 6.9.1 户外策略................................................................................................................. 80 6.9.2 报纸策略................................................................................................................. 81 6.9.3 网络......................................................................................................................... 81 6.9.4 短信......................................................................................................................... 81 6.9.5 不同销售阶段的媒体组合策略............................................................................. 81 6.10 本章小结...................................................................................................................... 81 第七章 项目竞争与风险分析................................................................................................82 7.1 养老项目分析................................................................................................................ 82 7.1.1 广州友好老年公寓——普惠型老年公寓，一级社会福利机构......................... 82 7.1.2 广州祈福护老公寓——酒店型中高端护老公寓................................................. 83 7.1.3 北京将府庄园敬老院——中高端酒店式养老公寓............................................. 84 7.1.4 北京汇晨养老公寓——公建民营中端老年社区................................................. 84 7.1.5 北京太阳城老年公寓——社区型中端养老公寓................................................. 85 7.1.6 青岛四方老年公寓——公建民营养老公寓......................................................... 86 7.1.7 上海亲和源老年社区——社区型中高端养老公寓............................................. 87 7.1.8 上海第三社会福利院——政府福利型养老院..................................................... 88 7.2 风险类型........................................................................................................................ 89 7.2.1 市场竞争风险......................................................................................................... 89 7.2.2 购买力风险............................................................................................................. 89 7.2.3 流动性和变现性风险............................................................................................. 89 7.2.4 利率风险................................................................................................................. 89 7.2.5 经营性风险............................................................................................................. 90 7.2.6 财务风险................................................................................................................. 90 7.2.7 社会风险................................................................................................................. 90 7.2.8 自然风险................................................................................................................. 90 7.3 风险产生原因................................................................................................................ 90 7.3.1 掌握信息不全、不准，投资决策草率................................................................. 90IX 7.3.2 政策变化引致的风险............................................................................................. 90 7.3.3 主观认识风险......................................................................................................... 91 7.4 风险应对策略................................................................................................................ 91 7.4.1 树立风险价值理念................................................................................................. 91 7.4.2 建立健全风险管理机制......................................................................................... 91 7.4.3 强化风险控制......................................................................................................... 91 7.4.4 完善信息网络和共享机制..................................................................................... 92 7.4.5 建立起资金保障的长效机制................................................................................. 92 7.5 本章小结........................................................................................................................ 92 第八章 投资估算与财务分析................................................................................................93 8.1 项目建设........................................................................................................................ 93 8.2 建设计划........................................................................................................................ 94 8.3 成本测算........................................................................................................................ 95 8.4 收入估算...................................................................................................................... 100 8.5 利润测算...................................................................................................................... 104 8.5.1 盈亏平衡分析....................................................................................................... 104 8.5.2 敏感性分析........................................................................................................... 104 8.6 现金流测算.................................................................................................................. 105 8.7 本章小结...................................................................................................................... 106 结 论......................................................................................................................................107