YY 公司成立 8 年，是一家天然气领域的能源经营企业，以前主要聚焦在交通运输 的 LNG 加注站领域，积累了丰富的运营经验和产业链资源。因为交通运输的 LNG 加注 站和 LNG 工业点供的相似度较高，在技术和运营上有保障，YY 公司也有意进入 LNG 工业点供市场，目前正在接触行业内的各种企业。其中 JY 地区不锈钢产业园的天然气 点供项目前期已经完成工艺技术上的可行性研究和环评，急需完成财务可行性研究，为 YY 公司的整体投资决策提供参考。 本报告以 YY 公司在不锈钢产业园的天然气点供项目为研究对象，首先，阐述了研 究的背景和意义；其次，通过文献研究法探讨国内外的研究现状、项目所在行业发展趋 势，利用实地调研法、当面访谈法调查 YY 公司的优劣势和项目的现状和前景；再次， 在工艺技术和环保可行的前提下，通过分析项目的市场环境和竞争状态，估算项目的销 量、售价、销售收入、建设投资、采购成本、人工成本和其他运营费用；最后，利用直 接法估算项目的增量净现金流，计算和分析项目的净现值、内部收益率、动态回收期这 3 个关键投资决策财务指标，运用单因素和多因素敏感性分析方法进行风险分析并研究 风险防范措施，得出研究结论。 研究发现，基于增量现金流和折现率 15.04%，不锈钢产业园天然气点供项目的净 现值 386.16 万元，远远大于零，项目为公司增加价值；修正内部收益率为 20.02%，大 于 YY 公司要求的必要报酬率（折现率）15.04%；动态回收期为 4.54 年（不含建设期）， 低于 YY 公司要求的回收期不超过 6 年；三个关键指标的计算结果都表明不锈钢产业园 天然气点供项目在财务上是可行的。在销量、售价、购价等 3 种敏感性因素连续变化的 27 种情况中，总共有 15 种情况的项目 NPV>0，占比 55.56%，说明项目还存在一定的 风险，风险主要集中在购价和售价两个方面。经营部门判断售价和购价出现最差情况的 可能性比较低，在各项风险防范措施下，投资失败的风险比较小，项目值得投资。 关键词，天然气工业点供 财务可行性研究 项目投资决策II ABSTRACT YY company, founded 8 years ago, is an energy business enterprise in the field of natural gas. It used to focus on the LNG filling station for vehicles and has accumulated rich operating experience and industrial chain resources.Because of the high similarity between the LNG filling stations for vehicle and the LNG gasification station for factory, YY company want to enter the market of LNG gasification station for factory,in order to get the same success in the operating and the technology.Among the various enterprises that YY company is currently contacting,the LNG gasification station for the stainless steel industrial park in JY area has completed the feasibility study on the process and technology and the environmental assessment , and the financial feasibility is needs to be completed right now ,in order to help YY company to make the decision of investment. This paper takes the LNG gasification station of YY company for the stainless steel industrial parkt as the research object. Firstly, the background and significance of the research are described.Secondly, the status quo about the research,the development trend of the project industry,are researched with literature research method,the advantages and disadvantages of YY company,the status quo and he development trend of the LNG gasification station,are researched with field research method and face-to-face interview method.Thirdly, with the precondition that the feasibility study on the process and technology and environmental assessment have been completed, sales volume, selling price, sales revenue, construction investment, procurement cost, labor cost and other operating expenses of the the project are predicted,through analyzes on the market environment and competition status .Finally, the incremental net cash flow of the project are predicted with direct method, the NPV, IRR, Dynamic PP are calculated and analyzed as the pivotal indexes,the risk is analyzed with single factor sensitivity analysis method and multivariate sensitivity analysis method,precautionary measure of the risk is researched, and the research conclusions are gotten at the end. Through the research,with the precondition of the incremental net cash flow of the project and discount rate,it is found that:the NPV of the project is 3.86 million yuan, much more than zero,indicating that the project increase the value of YY company;the MIRR is 20.02%, higher than the rate of return that required by YY company(15.04%);Dynamic PP is 4.42 years (excluding the construction period), shorter than the pay-back-time that required by YY company(not more than 6 years);all the three pivotal indexes indicate that the project is financially feasible.In 27 cases where 3 sensitivity factors including sales volume, selling price and purchase price changed continuously, there were 15 cases that the NPV of project isIII more than zero, accounting for 55.56%, indicating that the project still has some risks. Risks are mainly coming from the purchase price and selling price. The operation department judges that there is a low probability of worst case of selling price and purchase price. Under various precautionary measures of the risk , the risk of investment failure is relatively little, and the project is worth to invest. Key words:Lithium Copper Foil，Financial Feasibility，Project Investment DecisionIV 目 录 摘要...........................................................................................................................................I ABSTRACT ............................................................................................................................. II 第一章 绪论..............................................................................................................................1 1.1 研究的背景和意义.......................................................................................................... 1 1.1.1 研究背景................................................................................................................... 1 1.1.2 研究意义................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 文献综述.......................................................................................................................... 2 1.2.1 LNG 工业点供行业方面........................................................................................... 2 1.2.2 财务可行性分析方面............................................................................................... 4 1.3 研究方法和内容.............................................................................................................. 5 1.3.1 研究方法................................................................................................................... 5 1.3.2 研究内容................................................................................................................... 6 第二章 行业和公司及项目的现状和前景分析......................................................................8 2.1 LNG 工业点供行业前景分析 ......................................................................................... 8 2.1.1 天然气在国内外的整体现状和发展趋势................................................................ 8 2.1.2 工业点供在国内工业燃料领域的现状和发展趋势................................................ 8 2.2 YY 公司特色和优势........................................................................................................ 9 2.2.1 产业链资源................................................................................................................ 9 2.2.2YY 公司经营积累 ...................................................................................................... 9 2.2.3 规模优势和采购议价能力...................................................................................... 10 2.2.4 规范操作和安全管理的优势.................................................................................. 10 2.2.5 本节小结.................................................................................................................. 10 2.3 天然气点供项目的客户背景和基本合作框架............................................................ 10 2.3.1JY 地区的不锈钢产业现状和前景 ......................................................................... 10 2.3.2 点供项目客户的现状.............................................................................................. 11 2.3.3JY 地区管道气的现状及对点供项目影响 ............................................................. 12 2.3.4 点供项目的基本合作框架...................................................................................... 12 2.4 本章小结........................................................................................................................ 13 第三章 市场分析与销售估算................................................................................................14V 3.1 JY 地区 LNG 工业点供项目的环境分析..................................................................... 14 3.1.1 现有行业竞争......................................................................................................... 14 3.1.2 潜在竞争者进入市场............................................................................................. 15 3.1.3 买方议价能力......................................................................................................... 15 3.1.4 供方议价能力......................................................................................................... 16 3.1.5 替代品..................................................................................................................... 16 3.1.6 波特五力模型分析结论......................................................................................... 17 3.2 JY 地区 LNG 工业点供项目的 SWOT 分析和营销策略............................................ 17 3.2.1 优势（Strengths）.................................................................................................. 17 3.2.2 劣势（Weaknesses）.............................................................................................. 18 3.2.3 机会（Opportunities）........................................................................................... 18 3.2.4 威胁（Threats）..................................................................................................... 18 3.2.5 SWOT 分析结论和投资营销策略.......................................................................... 18 3.3 JY 地区天然气点供项目的销售估算 ........................................................................... 19 3.3.1 销量估算................................................................................................................. 19 3.3.2 售价估算................................................................................................................. 20 3.3.3 销售收入估算......................................................................................................... 21 3.4 本章小结........................................................................................................................ 21 第四章 建设投资与运营成本费用估算................................................................................22 4.1 建设投资分析及投资额估算........................................................................................ 22 4.2 运营安排及成本费用估算............................................................................................ 24 4.2.1 采购成本估算......................................................................................................... 24 4.2.2 运营人员配置及人员工资估算............................................................................. 25 4.2.3 其他运营费用估算................................................................................................. 26 4.2.4 总成本费用............................................................................................................. 27 4.3 本章小结........................................................................................................................ 27 第五章 项目现金流估算及财务评价指标分析....................................................................29 5.1 项目现金流估算及结果分析........................................................................................ 29 5.1.1 增值税..................................................................................................................... 29 5.1.2 附加税和所得税..................................................................................................... 31VI 5.1.3 现金流估算............................................................................................................. 32 5.2 折现率的确定................................................................................................................ 33 5.2.1 无风险收益率的确定............................................................................................. 33 5.2.2 β 系数的确定...........................................................................................................33 5.2.3 市场超额风险收益率的确定................................................................................. 34 5.2.4 折现率计算结果..................................................................................................... 34 5.3 财务评价指标的计算及其分析.................................................................................... 34 5.3.1 净现值的计算及其分析......................................................................................... 34 5.3.2 内部收益率的计算及其分析................................................................................. 34 5.3.3 动态回收期的计算及其分析................................................................................. 35 5.4 本章小结........................................................................................................................ 35 第六章 风险分析及防范措施................................................................................................37 6.1 内外部风险分析............................................................................................................ 37 6.2 基于单因素敏感性分析确定敏感性因素.................................................................... 38 6.3 基于多因素敏感性分析定量估测风险........................................................................ 38 6.4 针对项目风险的防范措施............................................................................................ 40 6.5 本章小结........................................................................................................................ 41 结 论........................................................................................................................................42