天津生态城位于天津滨海新区内，地处国家发展的战略性地区。生态城以实 现人与人、人与经济活动、人与环境的和谐共存为目标，其建设管理的模式要达 到能够实行、复制并推广的目的，探索在资源约束的条件下城市可持续发展的模 式。根据区域规划，位于生态城内的 DMY 新能源场站项目将建设为多种能源综 合利用的能源示范性场站，在可再生能源及新能源的开发利用方面进行探索。与 拟建或已建成的类似新能源场站项目相比，该项目在区域规划、自然条件、用能 模式等方面具有独特性，对该项目进行可行性研究，即可明确该项目的产品特色， 发挥区域优势，建设符合生态城发展和要求的新能源场站项目，也可以丰富新能 源场站项目的可行性研究内容，为类似新能源场站项目的建设提供有益参考。 本文以建设项目的可行性研究理论为基础，在阐述 DMY 新能源场站项目概 况的基础上，通过实地调研、模拟运行等方法获得相关数据，并从市场环境、技 术方案、经济评价、社会影响和风险控制等方面对生态城 DMY 新能源场站项目 进行可行性分析。结果显示，生态城 DMY 新能源场站项目在产品定位、用能模 式、运维模式、经济效益、社会效益等方面是可行的，本研究有利于该项目的顺 利实施。 该项目的实施在促进国内同类地区的新能源场站建设方面具有推动意义，在 为生态城规划建设成国家绿色产业示范区方面具有示范意义，有助于在满足当地 居民正常冷热负荷需求的同时减少环境污染，改善生活环境。 关键词， 新能源场站项目；天津生态城；可行性研究Summary Sino-Singapore Eco-City located in Binhai New Area, the strategic area for the national development. Eco-City aims at realizing the harmonious coexistence among, human being and human being, human being and economy activities, human being and environment. The construction and management mode is able to be implemented, copied and promoted. According to the regional planning, the DMY New Energy Station located in the Eco-City will be constructed into an energy demonstration station which can use multiple category of energy and will further study the renewable sources of energy and new energy development etc. Comparing with similar new energy stations, planned or construction finished, it’s unique in the regional planning, natural conditions, energy usage mode and etc. Feasibility study on the project can make the project characteristic clearer, make full use of regional advantage, construct new energy station project according to the development and requirement of the Eco-City, enlarge the feasibility study content regarding new energy station and provide reliable reference on similar new energy projects. This thesis is based on the feasibility study theory of the project construction, on the basis of illustrating the general introduction of the DMY New Energy Station. All the relevant data are from fieldwork and operation under imitation. Feasibility analysis of the DMY New Energy Station is done from the aspects of market environment, technology plan, economy evaluation, society influence and risk control, etc. The result shows, the positioning of the product, the usage mode of the energy, operation mode, economic merits and society merits are very feasible. The study in this paper is helpful to the implementation of the project. The implementation of the project is with pushing significance on the promotion of new energy stations construction in similar region in China, demonstration significance on the National Green Industry Demonstration Zone which is the aim of the Eco-City’s plan, helpful to meet the cooling and heating requirement of the local people, at the same time reduce the environment pollution and improve life quality. Key words: new energy station project; Sino-Singapore Eco-City; feasibility analysis目 录 第一章 绪论.........................................................1 1.1 问题的提出...............................................................................................1 1.2 国内外研究现状.......................................................................................1 1.3 研究内容...................................................................................................3 1.4 研究目的及意义.......................................................................................4 1.5 本章小结...................................................................................................5 第二章 生态城 DMY 新能源场站项目主要特点及影响力分析 ...............6 2.1 生态城 DMY 新能源场站项目主要特点................................................6 2.1.1 项目周边自然条件较差................................................................6 2.1.2 项目各项指标达到国内先进水平................................................7 2.1.3 多能源耦合利用模式为国内首例.................................................8 2.2 生态城 DMY 新能源场站项目的建设目标............................................9 2.3 生态城 DMY 新能源场站项目的社会影响力分析..............................10 2.3.1 国内领先的多能源耦合利用模式..............................................10 2.3.2 环保效益显著..............................................................................10 2.3.3 为国内新能源场站建设提供有益参考......................................10 第三章 生态城 DMY 新能源场站项目建设环境分析 ......................11 3.1 生态城 DMY 新能源场站项目概况......................................................11 3.1.1 DMY 新能源场站项目的负荷需求预测.....................................11 3.1.2 项目冷热负荷变化规律预测......................................................12 3.1.3 生态城峰谷平电价执行标准......................................................13 3.1.4 项目年能耗需求..........................................................................13 3.2 生态城 DMY 新能源场站项目市场调查..............................................14 3.2.1 我国能源利用现状及新能源项目发展的趋势分析..................14 3.2.2 我国新能源场站项目发展概况..................................................16 3.3 生态城 DMY 新能源场站项目建设条件分析......................................17 3.3.1 电力接入条件..............................................................................17 3.3.2 市政热力接入条件......................................................................17 3.3.3 可再生资源利用条件..................................................................17 3.3.4 燃气接入条件..............................................................................17 3.3.5 当地能源价格..............................................................................18 3.3.6 综合建设条件小结......................................................................18 第四章 生态城 DMY 新能源场站项目技术可行性分析 ....................19 4.1 项目系统方案选择及可行性分析.........................................................19 4.1.1 项目系统方案配置......................................................................19 4.1.2 技术方案分析..............................................................................21 4.2 项目实施的其他环节分析.....................................................................30 4.2.1 项目选址及厂房布局设计..........................................................30 4.2.2 消防措施......................................................................................30 4.2.3 节能节水措施..............................................................................31 4.2.4 环境保护效益..............................................................................31 4.2.5 劳动安全......................................................................................33 4.2.6 劳动组织及定员..........................................................................33 第五章 生态城 DMY 新能源场站项目经济合理性及风险分析 ..............34 5.1 项目投资估算.........................................................................................34 5.1.1 编制投资估算的理论依据..........................................................34 5.1.2 编制投资估算的说明..................................................................34 5.1.3 项目建设总估算..........................................................................35 5.2 项目融资方案.........................................................................................35 5.3 项目财务评价.........................................................................................35 5.3.1 项目基础数据..............................................................................35 5.3.2 成本费用估算..............................................................................35 5.3.3 销售收入、税金及附加..............................................................36 5.3.4 利润预测及分配..........................................................................36 5.3.5 财务盈利能力分析......................................................................37 5.3.6 偿债能力分析..............................................................................38 5.3.7 不确定性分析..............................................................................38 5.4 生态城 DMY 新能源场站项目风险因素分析......................................40 5.4.1 环境..............................................................................................40 5.4.2 技术..............................................................................................41 5.4.3 市场..............................................................................................41 5.4.4 政策与机制..................................................................................42 5.4.5 决策者对风险的态度..................................................................42 第六章 研究结论与展望..............................................44 6.1 研究结论.................................................................................................44 6.2 展望.........................................................................................................45