根据目前国际上通用的人口老龄化标准，广州市已接近中度老龄化社会。预计在 “十三五”期间，广州市人口老龄化将进一步加剧，到 2020 年，老年人口比重将增加 到 20%。家庭养老是我国传统的养老方式，但是，由于计划生育政策和城市化的推进， 我国家庭结构呈现出小型化的特征，家庭养老模式难以为继。同时，随着养老观念的 转变，社会化养老成为趋势，大力发展养老服务业成为政府和社会各界的共识。为应 对人口老龄化的严峻形势，广州市加快建设社会养老服务体系，出台吸引社会资本参 与养老服务的政策，积极推广养老服务 PPP 模式。在我国，PPP 是指政府通过特许经 营、购买服务、股权合作等方式和社会资本在基础设施建设及公共服务领域合作的一 种模式，实现双方利益共享、风险共担。由于养老服务业和 PPP 模式都具备公用、微 利的基本属性，在适用的领域上完全匹配，具有相同的投入产出特征，两者结合势在 必然。PPP 模式应用于养老服务业可以拓展资金来源、缓解供需矛盾，改善运营机制、 提高服务质量，分散降低风险、实现规模效益。 本文通过广州市 XX 福利院（新院区）项目个案，对养老服务机构建设运营采用 PPP 模式进行可行性研究。首先，分析了广州市养老服务发展的背景和趋势、吸引社 会资本进入的必要性以及 PPP 模式的基本含义、与养老服务的联系、两者结合的意义， 阐述本文的研究目的意义、国内外研究现状以及研究内容、方式与创新。其次，介绍 了项目的基本情况，包括项目的背景、建设规模、项目定位、运作模式、投融资结构、 利益分配以及政府承诺等。再次，分析了广州市养老服务市场的供需矛盾及项目实施 的必要性，论证项目建设运营采用 PPP 模式的必要性和可行性。然后，从 PPP 模式下 社会资本的关键诉求出发，分析项目存在的潜在风险、按照“最优承担”原则对风险 进行分配并提出风险控制措施，测算项目全生命周期内财务指标及盈利能力，并进行 了盈亏平衡分析和敏感性分析。最后，对照 PPP 项目“两评一案”中的物有所值评价 指标体系，对项目采用 PPP 模式进行定性评价分析和定量评价分析，得出可行性评价 结论。 关键词：PPP；社会资本；养老服务；运营模式；物有所值评价西南交通大学硕士研究生学位报告 第 II 页 Abstract Guangzhou is approaching a moderately aging society according to the general standards for population aging in the world. It is expected that the situation will further intensify during 13th five-year period and the proportion of the elderly population will increase to 20% by 2020 in Guangzhou. The family structure of our country is characterized by miniaturization due to the family planning policy and the advancement of urbanization, so the traditional family supporting model for the aged is difficult to continue. Meanwhile, socialized elderly support has become a trend with the shift in the concept of retirement and to develop. The pension service industry has become the consensus of government and all sectors of society. To deal with the serious situation of aging population, Guangzhou has accelerated the establishment of a social pension service system, introduced a policy of attracting social capital to participate in pension services, and actively promoted the Public-Private Partnership(abbreviation PPP) scheme of pension services. PPP scheme refers to a scheme in which the government by the ways of franchising, purchase of services, equity cooperation cooperation with social capital in infrastructure construction and public service to achieve mutual both benefit and risk sharing. The combination of the pension service industry and the PPP scheme are inevitable due to the same attributes of public and meager profits, the applicable fields and characteristics of input and output in china. The application of the PPP scheme can expand the sources of funds, ease the contradiction between supply and demand, optimize the operating mechanism, improve service quality, reduce risks and achieve economies of scale. The paper studies the feasibility of adopting the PPP scheme for the construction and operation of the pension service institution through the case of Guangzhou XX Welfare Institute PPP project. Firstly, the paper analyzes the background and trends of the development of pension services in Guangzhou, the necessity of attracting social capital, the basic meaning of the PPP scheme, the relationship with the pension service, the significance of combination of the two, the significance of the research, research status at home and abroad, research content, research methods and innovations. Secondly, introduces the basic situation of the project, including background, construction scale, project positioning, operation mode, structure of investment and financing, distribution of benefits, and government commitments. Thirdly, demonstrates the necessity and feasibility of the project by the analysis of the contradiction between the supply and demand of pension market and the necessity of project implementation. Fourthly, analyzes the potential risks, principles of西南交通大学硕士研究生学位报告 第 III 页 risk allocation and control measures of the project, measures the financial indicators and profitability of the project throughout whole life cycle, and conduct break-even analysis and sensitivity analysis from the key appeals of social capital under PPP scheme. Finally, evaluates the project adopting the PPP scheme by qualitative and quantitative analysis in comparison with the evaluation index system of value for money in the "two evaluations and draws conclusion". Keywords: Public-Private Partnership(PPP); social capital; pension service; operation mode; Value for Money Evaluation西南交通大学硕士研究生学位报告 第 IV 页 目 录 第 1 章 绪论.......1 1.1 研究背景 .. 1 1.2 研究意义 .. 3 1.3 研究现状 .. 4 1.3.1 国外研究现状 ..... 4 1.3.2 国内研究现状 ..... 5 1.4 研究内容、方法及创新 ..... 6 第 2 章 项目基本情况...7 2.1 项目概况 .. 7 2.2 项目运作方案 ... 8 2.3 项目收益分配 . 10 2.4 政府承诺与保障 ...... 12 第 3 章 项目市场及 PPP 模式分析....13 3.1 项目市场分析 . 13 3.1.1 市场需求分析 ... 13 3.1.2 市场供给分析 ... 16 3.1.3 项目实施的必要性 .... 22 3.2 项目采用 PPP 模式的必要性分析..... 22 3.3 项目采用 PPP 模式的可行性分析..... 22 3.3.1 政策环境可行 ... 22 3.3.2 社会投资意愿增强 .... 24 3.3.3 社会经济效益显著 .... 25 第 4 章 项目风险与财务分析....26 4.1 项目风险分析 . 26 4.1.1 风险识别 ... 26 4.1.2 风险分配 ... 28西南交通大学硕士研究生学位报告 第 V 页 4.1.3 风险控制 ... 30 4.2 项目财务分析 . 31 4.2.1 基本假定 .. 31 4.2.2 财务指标测算 ... 32 4.2.3 盈利能力分析 ... 35 4.2.4 盈亏平衡分析 ... 35 4.2.5 敏感性分析 ....... 36 第 5 章 项目物有所值评价分析43 5.1 定性评价 43 5.1.1 评价指标及权重 ........ 43 5.1.2 评价指标分析 ... 43 5.1.3 评价结论 .. 46 5.2 定量评价 47 5.2.1 定量分析方法 ... 47 5.2.2 计算折现率 ....... 47 5.2.3 计算 PSC 值...... 48 5.2.4 计算 PPP 值 ...... 50 5.2.5 定量分析结论 ... 51 结论.58 致谢.59