Notes from Day 2 of GCC 2019
08 January 2019Global Research
ubs/investmentresearch
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Equities
Asia Pacific Ex. JP
Sectors in this Issue
Heavy Construction
P.31, P.42
Footwear
P.95
Oil Companies, Major
P.29, P.87
Banks
P.44
Paper Products
P.70
Building Materials
P.24
Internet Services
P.51, P.65, P.76, P.89
Real Estate
P.16
Automobile Manufacturers
P.53, P.57, P.59, P.83
Diversified Financial
P.61
Industrial Services
P.8
Insurance, Property & Casualty
P.78
Industrial, Diversified
P.12, P.33, P.49
Transportation Services
P.10, P.81
Food Products
P.20, P.91
Retailers, Apparel
P.97
Banks, Ex-S&L
P.6, P.22
Publishing
P.40
Software
P.63
Gas Utilities
P.38
Casinos
P.55
Auto Parts
P.72
Electric Utilities
P.18, P.47
Factory Equipment
P.67
Clothing & Fabrics
P.85
Consumer Services
P.4, P.74
Diversified Technology Services
P.93
Recreational Products & Services
P.14
Insurance, Full-Line
P.26, P.35
Summary
Edwin Chen, CFA P.4Babytree Group, 1761.HK
2019 GCC takeaways
12-month rating: Buy, 12/18E 0.14, 12/19E 0.37, 12m price target: HK$10.48, Market cap.: US
$1.41bn/HK$11.0bn
May Yan P.6Bank of China, 3988.HK
2019 GCC takeaways
12-month rating: Neutral, 12/18E 0.59, 12/19E 0.63, 12m price target: HK$3.60, Market cap.: HK
$995bn/US$127bn
Alex Liu P.8Beijing Originwater Technology, 300070.SZ
2019 GCC takeaways
12-month rating: Buy, FYE -, 12m price target: Rmb13.50 = Rmb12.40, Market cap.: Rmb25.4bn/
US$3.70bn
Robin Xu P.10Beijing Urban Construction Design & Dev, 1599.H
2019 GCC takeaways
12-month rating: Buy, 12/18E 0.53, 12/19E 0.60, 12m price target: HK$4.08, Market cap.: HK
$4.17bn/US$0.53bn
Phyllis Wang P.12Canny Elevator, 002367.SZ
2019 GCC takeaways
12-month rating: Sell, 12/18E 0.23, 12/19E 0.24, 12m price target: Rmb4.14, Market cap.:
Rmb4.55bn/US$0.66bn
Xin Chen P.14China CYTS Tours Holding, 600138.SS
2019 GCC takeaways
12-month rating: Buy, 12/18E 0.87, 12/19E 0.92, 12m price target: Rmb21.15, Market cap.:
Rmb9.40bn/US$1.37bn
John Lam, CFA P.16China Evergrande Group, 3333.HK
2019 GCC takeaways
12-month rating: Sell, 12/18E 3.07, 12/19E 3.50, 12m price target: HK$17.60, Market cap.: HK
$285bn/US$36.4bn
Ken Liu P.18China Longyuan Power, 0916.HK
2019 GCC takeaways
12-month rating: Buy, 12/18E 0.68, 12/19E 0.80, 12m price target: HK$8.70, Market cap.: HK
$42.1bn/US$5.37bn
Christine Peng, CFA P.20China Mengniu Dairy, 2319.HK
2019 GCC takeaways
12-month rating: Buy, 12/18E 0.74, 12/19E 0.96, 12m price target: HK$27.97, Market cap.: HK
$91.0bn/US$11.6bn
May Yan P.22China Merchants Bank, 3968.HK
2019 GCC takeaways
12-month rating: Buy, 12/18E 3.16, 12/19E 3.58, 12m price target: HK$35.60, Market cap.: HK
$720bn/US$91.9bn
Wenzhuo Du P.24China National Building Material, 3323.HK
2019 GCC takeaways
12-month rating: Buy, 12/18E 1.17, 12/19E 1.12, 12m price target: HK$8.10, Market cap.: HK
$43.5bn/US$5.56bn
Kelvin Chu, CFA P.26China Pacific Insurance - H, 2601.HK
2019 GCC takeaways
12-month rating: Buy, 12/18E 1.63, 12/19E 2.21, 12m price target: HK$35.50, Market cap.: HK
$224bn/US$28.5bn
Alex Xu P.29China Petroleum & Chemical - A, 600028.SS
2019 GCC takeaways
12-month rating: Buy, 12/18E 0.55, 12/19E 0.57, 12m price target: Rmb7.80, Market cap.:
Rmb627bn/US$91.5bn
Robin Xu P.31China Railway Group, 0390.HK
2019 GCC takeaways
12-month rating: Buy, 12/18E 0.77, 12/19E 0.88, 12m price target: HK$8.00, Market cap.: HK
UBS 1
$164bn/US$20.9bn
Phyllis Wang P.33China Railway Signal & Communication, 3969.HK
2019 GCC takeaway
12-month rating: Buy, 12/18E 0.46, 12/19E 0.54, 12m price target: HK$6.60, Market cap.: HK
$50.1bn/US$6.39bn
Kelvin Chu, CFA P.35China Reinsurance (Group) Corporation, 1508.HK
2019 GCC takeaways
12-month rating: Neutral, 12/18E 0.15, 12/19E 0.18, 12m price target: HK$1.71, Market cap.: HK
$68.0bn/US$8.67bn
Ken Liu P.38China Resources Gas Group, 1193.HK
2019 GCC takeaways
12-month rating: Buy, 12/18E 2.12, 12/19E 2.48, 12m price target: HK$43.50, Market cap.: HK
$66.2bn/US$8.44bn
Zhijing Liu P.40China South Publishing & Media Group, 601098.S
2019 GCC takeaways
12-month rating: Buy, 12/18E 0.71, 12/19E 0.89, 12m price target: Rmb16.00, Market cap.:
Rmb22.5bn/US$3.28bn
Robin Xu P.42China State Construction International, 3311.HK
2019 GCC takeaways
12-month rating: Neutral, 12/18E 1.04, 12/19E 1.11, 12m price target: HK$6.40, Market cap.: HK
$33.5bn/US$4.28bn
May Yan P.44China/HK Banks Daily
2019 GCC takeaways on ABC and LX; Liu He makes surprise appearance on China-US trade talks
Simon Powell P.47CLP Holdings, 0002.HK
2019 GCC takeaways
12-month rating: Neutral, 12/18E 5.48, 12/19E 5.15, 12m price target: HK$93.00, Market cap.: HK
$224bn/US$28.7bn
Phyllis Wang P.49CRRC Corp - H, 1766.HK
2019 GCC takeaway
12-month rating: Buy, 12/18E 0.46, 12/19E 0.60, 12m price target: HK$8.90, Market cap.: HK
$230bn/US$29.4bn
Jerry Liu P.51Ctrip International, CTRP.O
2019 Greater China Conference takeaways
12-month rating: Neutral, 12/18E 7.48, 12/19E 5.24, 12m price target: US$30.00, Market cap.: US
$13.8bn
Paul Gong P.53Dongfeng Motor, 0489.HK
2019 GCC takeaways
12-month rating: Neutral, 12/18E 1.46, 12/19E 1.41, 12m price target: HK$8.80, Market cap.: HK
$63.1bn/US$8.05bn
Angus Chan P.55Galaxy Entertainment, 0027.HK
2019 GCC takeaways
12-month rating: Buy, 12/18E 3.11, 12/19E 3.07, 12m price target: HK$62.50, Market cap.: HK
$205bn/US$26.1bn
Paul Gong P.57Guangzhou Automobile, 2238.HK
2019 GCC takeaways
12-month rating: Buy, 12/18E 1.15, 12/19E 1.30, 12m price target: HK$12.20, Market cap.: HK
$77.3bn/US$9.87bn
Wei Shen P.59Guangzhou Automobile Group - A, 601238.SS
2019 GCC takeaways
12-month rating: Buy, 12/18E 1.15, 12/19E 1.30, 12m price target: Rmb12.00, Market cap.:
Rmb107bn/US$15.6bn
Kelvin Chu, CFA P.61Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing, 0388.HK
2019 GCC takeaways
12-month rating: Neutral, 12/18E 7.46, 12/19E 8.21, 12m price target: HK$238.00, Market cap.:
HK$283bn/US$36.1bn
Diviya Nagarajan P.63Hundsun Technologies, 600570.SS
2019 GCC takeaways
12-month rating: Neutral, 12/18E 0.92, 12/19E 1.22, 12m price target: Rmb54.00, Market cap.:
Rmb34.0bn/US$4.96bn
Jerry Liu P.65JD, JD.O
2019 Greater China Conference takeaways
12-month rating: Buy, 12/18E 1.66, 12/19E 2.78, 12m price target: US$28.00, Market cap.: US
$32.4bn
Hikaru Mizuno P.67Machinery Sector: 2019 GCC Takeaways
Construction Machinery Sector: Chinese firms are also catching up on 'quality'
Wenzhuo Du P.70Nine Dragons Paper, 2689.HK
2019 GCC takeaways
12-month rating: Neutral, 06/19E 1.16, 06/20E 1.20, 12m price target: HK$8.51, Market cap.: HK
$32.8bn/US$4.18bn
Nora Min P.72Ningbo Joyson Electronic, 600699.SS
UBS 2
2019 GCC takeaways
12-month rating: Buy, 12/18E 0.86, 12/19E 1.18, 12m price target: Rmb27.52, Market cap.:
Rmb20.9bn/US$3.05bn
Edwin Chen, CFA P.74OneSmart International Education, ONE.N
2019 GCC takeaways
12-month rating: Buy, 08/19E 3.03, 08/20E 4.05, 12m price target: US$14.18, Market cap.: US
$1.41bn
Zhijing Liu P.76Perfect World, 002624.SZ
2019 GCC takeaways
12-month rating: Buy, 12/18E 1.33, 12/19E 1.56, 12m price target: Rmb33.66, Market cap.:
Rmb33.7bn/US$4.91bn
Kelvin Chu, CFA P.78PICC Property and Casualty, 2328.HK
2019 GCC takeaways
12-month rating: Buy, 12/18E 0.75, 12/19E 0.92, 12m price target: HK$11.70, Market cap.: HK
$179bn/US$22.9bn
Eric Lin P.81S.F. Holding, 002352.SZ
2019 GCC takeaways
12-month rating: Buy, 12/18E 0.94, 12/19E 1.22, 12m price target: Rmb46.00, Market cap.:
Rmb145bn/US$21.1bn
Wei Shen P.83SAIC Motor, 600104.SS
2019 GCC takeaways
12-month rating: Buy, 12/18E 3.11, 12/19E 3.29, 12m price target: Rmb32.90, Market cap.:
Rmb284bn/US$41.4bn
Ally Chen P.85Shenzhou International, 2313.HK
2019 GCC takeaways
12-month rating: Buy, 12/18E 3.17, 12/19E 3.95, 12m price target: HK$116.00, Market cap.: HK
$135bn/US$17.2bn
Peter Gastreich P.87Sinopec - H, 0386.HK
2019 GCC takeaways
12-month rating: Buy, 12/18E 0.55, 12/19E 0.57, 12m price target: HK$8.30, Market cap.: HK
$695bn/US$88.7bn
Jerry Liu P.89Tencent Holdings, 0700.HK
2019 Greater China Conference takeaways
12-month rating: Buy, 12/18E 8.04, 12/19E 9.73, 12m price target: HK$400.00, Market cap.: HK
$2,963bn/US$378bn
Christine Peng, CFA P.91Tingyi Cayman Islands, 0322.HK
2019 GCC takeaways [Erratum]
12-month rating: Neutral, 12/18E 0.44, 12/19E 0.48, 12m price target: HK$13.19, Market cap.: HK
$52.6bn/US$6.72bn
Diviya Nagarajan P.93Venustech Group, 002439.SZ
2019 GCC takeaways
12-month rating: Buy, 12/18E 0.64, 12/19E 0.76, 12m price target: Rmb26.00, Market cap.:
Rmb20.7bn/US$3.01bn
Christine Peng, CFA P.95Yue Yuen Industrial, 0551.HK
2019 GCC takeaways
12-month rating: Buy, 12/18E 0.22, 12/19E 0.23, 12m price target: HK$30.80, Market cap.: HK
$40.3bn/US$5.14bn
Crystal Xu P.97Zhejiang Semir Garment, 002563.SZ
2019 GCC takeaways
12-month rating: Buy, 12/18E 0.61, 12/19E 0.76, 12m price target: Rmb10.75, Market cap.:
Rmb23.3bn/US$3.40bn
UBS 3。