ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK ADB Economics Working Paper Series The Impact of Trade Conict on Developing AsiaAbdul Abiad, Kristina Baris, John ArvinBernabe, Donald Jay Bertulfo, ShielaCamingue-Romance, Paul Neilmer Feliciano,Mahinthan Joseph Mariasingham, and ValerieMercer-BlackmanNo. 566 | December 2018Abdul Abiad (aabiad@adb) is an economic advisor;Mahinthan Joseph Mariasingham(mmariasingham@adb) is a statistician; ValerieMercer-Blackman (vmercerblackman@adb) is a senioreconomist; Shiela Camingue-Romance(scamingue@adb) is an economics ofcer;Kristina Baris (kbaris.consultant@adb), John ArvinBernabe (jbernabe.consultant@adb), Donald JayBertulfo (dbertulfo.consultant@adb), and PaulNeilmer Feliciano (pfeliciano.consultant@adb) areconsultants from the Economic Research and RegionalCooperation Department (ERCD) of the AsianDevelopment Bank.The analysis in this paper was used in theAsianDevelopment Outlook 2018 Update . The team would like tothank participants at the ERCD Seminar Series for valuablecomments. All remaining errors are our own. Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO)2018 Asian Development Bank 6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City, 1550 Metro Manila, Philippines Tel +63 2 632 4444; Fax +63 2 636 2444 adb Some rights reserved. Published in 2018.ISSN 2313-6537 (print), 2313-6545 (electronic) Publication Stock No. WPS189770-2 DOI: dx.doi/10.22617/WPS189770-2 The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reect the views and policiesofthe Asian Development Bank (ADB) or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent.ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for anyconsequence of their use. The mention of specic companies or products of manufacturers does not imply that theyare endorsed or recommended by ADB in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area, or by using the term “country”inthis document, ADB does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area. This work is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) https://creativecommons/licenses/by/3.0/igo/. By using the content of this publication, you agree to be boundbytheterms of this license. For attribution, translations, adaptations, and permissions, please read the provisionsandterms of use at adb/terms-use#openaccess. This CC license does not apply to non-ADB copyright materials in this publication. If the material is attributedtoanother source, please contact the copyright owner or publisher of that source for permission to reproduce it. ADB cannot be held liable for any claims that arise as a result of your use of the material. Please contact pubsmarketing@adb if you have questions or comments with respect to content, or if you wishtoobtain copyright permission for your intended use that does not fall within these terms, or for permission to usetheADB logo. Notes:In this publication, “$” refers to United States dollars. ADB recognizes “China” as the People’s Republic of China. Corrigenda to ADB publications may be found at adb/publications/corrigenda. CONTENTSTABLES AND FIGURES ivABSTRACT vI. INTRODUCTION 1II. THE 2018 TRADE CONFLICT UNFOLDS 2III. THE MODEL SET UP 5 A. Channels of Impact 5 B. Trade Conict Scenarios 5 C. Data and Scenario Modeling 6 D. Input--Output Analysis 10 E. Comparison with Other Analyses of the Trade Conict 11IV. RESULTS 12 A. Efects on Gross Domestic Product 12 B. Efects of Exports 15 C. Efects on Employment 19D. Efects on Current Account Balances 22V. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS 24VI. CONCLUDING REMARKS 26APPENDIX 29REFERENCES 37 。。。。。。