Dissertation
Search and Rescue in the
Arctic
Is the U.S. Prepared
Timothy William James Smith
This document was submitted as a dissertation in September 2016 in
partial fulfillment of the requirements of the doctoral degree in public
policy analysis at the Pardee RAND Graduate School. The faculty
committee that supervised and approved the dissertation consisted
of Abbie Tingstad (Chair), Brien Alkire, and Scott Stephenson.
PARDEE RAND GRADUATE SCHOOL
For more information on this publication, visit rand/pubs/rgs_dissertations/RGSD382.html

















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iii
Table of Contents
Acknowledgments... v
Abstract ..... vii
Chapter One: Introduction .. 1
Motivation and Background ......... 1
Research Questions .......... 4
Initial Hypotheses . 5
Methodology......... 5
Chapter Two: Foundational Knowledge for Arctic Search and Rescue ..... 9
The Search and Rescue Mission Set ......... 9
Search and Rescue Policy ........... 11
The COSPAS-SARSAT System15
Unique Challenges of the Arctic17
SAR in the Arctic ........... 21
Chapter Three: What is the current demand for Arctic SAR, and what factors affect its future
trajectory ....... 23
Current Demand from Historical Arctic SAR Cases ...... 23
Maritime Arctic Activity24
Arctic Aeronautical Activity ...... 32
Military Activity and Catastrophic Incident SAR .......... 34
Longer-Term Arctic Future Uncertain ... 36
Arctic Risk Factors ......... 38
Role of Technology and Policy in Mitigating Risk ........ 38
Summary46
Chapter Four: What is the current U.S. capability for supplying SAR in the Arctic, and how is it
changing ........ 47
Air Force SAR Capabilities ........ 47
USCG SAR Capabilities . 52
Additional Partners for Arctic SAR ........ 59
Role of Satellite Technology in Improving SAR Supply ........... 67
Summary71
Chapter Five: Arctic SAR Scenario Analysis ....... 72
Scenario Selection and Development ..... 72
Military SAR Scenario Analysis74
Aeronautical SAR Scenario Analysis ..... 78
Maritime SAR Scenario Analysis ........... 82
Key Challenges for Arctic SAR . 86
Chapter Six: Findings and Recommendations ...... 90
iv
Research Findings .......... 90
Policy Recommendations ........... 92
Appendix A: Interviews with Subject Matter Experts ...... 96
Appendix B: Arctic SAR Model ... 98
Appendix C: Military SAR Scenario Analysis ... 104
Appendix D: Aeronautical SAR Scenario Analysis ....... 112
Appendix E: Maritime SAR Scenario Analysis .. 130
Abbreviations ...... 142
Bibliography ....... 145
v
Acknowledgments
Dissertations are hard, but writing a dissertation on Arctic Search and Rescue made a
mockery of my own struggles. My research path inevitably led me to stories of Arctic and
Antarctic survival that I could hardly believe. Stories like that of Frank Worsley and the ill-fated
1915 Trans-Antarctic Expedition. He was the captain of the ship, the
Endurance
, when the
Antarctic sea ice crushed and swallowed their ship leaving the 28-man crew alone on the ice with
dwindling resources. They survived for 500 days until, finally, the churning sea ice spit them out
to the open ocean. They launched three lifeboats amidst 30-foot ocean swells and sailed
desperately for Elephant Island, an inhospitable and uninhabited fragment of land jutting out of
the Antarctic Ocean.They landed ashore, but were still far from safety.
The survival of all 28 members of their crew hinged on them reaching a whaling station on
South Georgia Island, 800 miles to the north. A select few would have to embark once more in
an exposed lifeboat, navigating by the stars, battling the southern ocean, and hoping desperately
to hit the island and organizing a rescue party. Six men went, but the responsibility for
navigating the lifeboat—and thus withstanding the worst of the punishing ocean—lay squarely
on Worsley’s shoulders. For 15 days and nights, he fought the swells, the storms, and the voice
inside his head telling him he had nothing left to give, until miraculously a dark shadow of cliffs
punctured the gray canvas of cloudy sky. They had made it to South Georgia Island. The crew
would live.
In 100 years, we have come a long way, and today’s Frank Worlsey could communicate his
distress via satellite, request assistance from an icebreaking ship, and be rescued long before
requiring such an audacious voyage. Nevertheless, for me, his story demonstrates something
truly profound. It demonstrates that buried, hidden and obscured, within the fabric of our own
humanity are threads of steely strength that do not just hold firm, but in fact toughen, when
confronted with the most impossible challenges. The SAR system has changed considerably in
the past 100 years, but the human condition has not: these threads exist in equal measure today.
To me, Frank Worsley’s story provides the most striking example that we are far more capable
than we realize, if only we can suspend our disbelief, quell our doubt, and place faith in the
tenacity of those elemental threads.I would like to dedicate this dissertation to Frank Worsley
for helping me do just that—for teaching me that the voice, the one that casts doubt on our
abilities and tries to define our limits, is generally lying.
I received tremendous assistance throughout this dissertation process and need to thank a
great many people. I would like to first thank my dissertation committee, Abbie Tingstad, Brien
Alkire, and Scott Stephenson.You each provided very critical feedback to help evolve my
research, and make me a more critical thinker.
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