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本文从社会资本、社区支持、个人特征三大方面研究用户行为的影响因素，
首先分别搜集了 2008 年、2014 年对此论坛用户的调查问卷数据，又在 2016 年对
这部分用户的实际参与行为的数据进行了抓取，利用 SPSS21 分析软件中的寿命表
分析法、Kaplan-Meier 分析、COX 回归模型等方法分析了虚拟社区不同发展阶段
用户生存时间的分布状况以及影响因素。本文研究结果表明：（1）在虚拟社区的
发展较早的时期，影响用户生存时间的保护因素有参与水平、受教育程度、社区
对用户自由表达的支持（FE）、社区对用户沟通交流的支持（SMC），即它们的
取值越高，用户流失的风险越低。论坛用户生存时间的危险因素有性别，在这里
性别因素的作用表示男性用户流失低于女性。（2）在虚拟社区发展较成熟的时期，
影响用户生存时间的保护因素有受教育程度、身份地位、认知社会资本（CSC）和
社区对用户自由表达的支持（FE），即它们的取值越高，用户流失风险越低。本
文的研究既是对虚拟社区相关研究理论的补充，也对促进虚拟社区的长期发展具
有重要意义
关键词：社会资本；社区支持；个人特征；知识型虚拟社区；生存分析哈尔滨工业大学管理学硕士学位论文
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Abstract
With the development of information technology, people are increasingly
interested in online social activities. As an online information exchange platform,
virtual community has developed rapidly in recent years. At present, the research of
virtual community mostly focuses on the motivation and satisfaction of users, and
lacks the tracking study of the whole participation cycle of users. As for the virtual
community, a large number of stable users are the guarantee for its long-term
development. Therefore, it is very important for the development of the virtual
community to study the user&39;s long-term participation behavior and explore the
reasons for the loss of users. Survival analysis can study the occurrence and duration
of events, and has certain applicability in the study of user churn. This paper uses the
survival analysis method to trace and analyze the users of the virtual community, and
study the survival time and the influencing factors of the users.
This paper examined the impact of perceived social capital, community support
and personal characteristics on members’ life span in a knowledge virtual community.
Firstly, we collected the survey data of 2008 and 2014, then we further tracked the
participation behaviors till 2016. Based on the life table analysis method,
Kaplan-Meier analysis and COX regression model in SPSS21 analysis software, the
distribution status of user survival time and the influencing factors of user&39;s survival
time were analyzed at different stages of virtual community development. We draw
the following conclusions: (1) In the developing stage of the virtual community,
Protection factors for users survival time are user’s level of participation, level of
education, users freedom of expression, community’s support for member
communication, which means the higher of these covariate value, the lower the risk of
churn. The risk factors for users&39; survival time are gender, which indicates that the
loss of male users is lower than that of women.(2) In the mature stage of the virtual
community, Protection factors for users survival time are level of education, status,
cognitive social capital and freedom of expression, which means the higher of these
covariate value, the lower the risk of churn. This study had significant theoretical and
practical implications for sustainable development of virtual communities.
Keywords: Perceived social capital, Community support ,Personal characteristics,
Knowledge virtual community, Survival analysis哈尔滨工业大学管理学硕士学位论文
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目 录
摘要......I
Abstract..II
目 录...III
第一章 绪论.......1
1.1 课题来源..........1
1.2 研究的背景和意义......1
1.2.1 研究背景...........1
1.2.2 理论意义...........2
1.2.3 实践意义...........3
1.3 国内外研究现状及分析..........3
1.3.1 虚拟社区的国内外研究现状...3
1.3.2 生存分析法的国内外研究现状...........6
1.3.3 国内外研究现状的简析...........7
1.4 主要研究内容..9
1.4.1 研究内容...........9
1.4.2 研究方法...........9
1.4.3 结构框架和技术路线.10
第二章 理论模型与研究假设的提出.12
2.1 理论综述........12
2.1.1 社会资本理论.12
2.1.2 社区支持理论.13
2.1.3 个人特征.........13
2.2 理论模型的构建.........15
2.3 研究假设的提出.........16
2.3.1 社会资本对用户生存时间的影响关系假设.16
2.3.2 社区支持对用户生存时间的影响关系假设.17
2.3.3 个人特征对用户生存时间的影响关系假设.18
2.4 本章小结.........19
第三章 研究方法与数据获取.20
3.1 生存分析法.....20
3.1.1 生存分析的有关概念..20
3.1.2 虚拟社区用户生存时间分布的特征函数与统计方法..........21
3.1.3 虚拟社区用户生存时间影响因素模型—COX 回归模型.....23
3.1.4 生存分析在虚拟社区用户研究中的适用性..24
3.2 研究对象与数据来源.24
3.2.1 研究对象..........24哈尔滨工业大学管理学硕士学位论文
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3.2.2 数据来源..........25
3.3 变量的解释与测量.....25
3.4 描述性统计分析...
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