The Demographic Outlook:
2022 to 2052
Demographic Factors That Contribute to Population Growth
The size of the U.S. population and its age and sex composition affect federal spending, revenues, defi-
cits, debt, and the economy. In this report, the Congressional Budget Office describes its population
projections that underlie the baseline budget projections and economic forecast that CBO published
in May 2022 and the long-term budget projections that the agency published in July 2022.
o Population. In CBO’s projections, the population increases from 335 million people in 2022
to 369 million people in 2052, expanding by 0.3 percent per year, on average. (In this report,
population refers to the Social Security area population—the relevant population for the
calculation of Social Security payroll taxes and benefits. See Notes and Definitions for more
details.) The population is also projected to become older, on average, as growth in the number of
people age 65 or older outpaces that of younger age groups.
o Components of Population Growth. Population growth is projected to slow over the next
30 years. As fertility rates remain below the replacement rate (the fertility rate required for
a generation to exactly replace itself in the absence of immigration), population growth is
increasingly driven by net immigration flows.
o Civilian Noninstitutionalized Population. The civilian noninstitutionalized population grows,
in CBO’s projections, from 264 million people in 2022 to 298 million people in 2052. (This
measure of the population includes only people age 16 or older. The agency uses it to project the
size of the labor force.) The prime working age population (ages 25 to 54) grows at an average
annual rate of 0.2 percent over that period, slower than its average over the 1980–2021 period
(1.0 percent).
o Changes Since Last Year. In CBO’s current projections, the population is smaller and grows more
slowly, on average, than CBO projected last year. Fertility rates are expected to be lower than the
agency projected last year, reducing the size and growth of the population that is under 24 years
old over the 30-year projection period. In addition, as a result of new information about the
effects of COVID-19, CBO increased projected mortality rates for people age 65 or older, on
average, in the first two decades of the projection period.
CBO’s projections are subject to uncertainty in the rates of fertility, mortality, and net immigration.
Small differences between CBO’s projections and actual outcomes for those rates could compound
over many years and significantly affect outcomes by the end of the projection period.
cbo.gov/publication/57975Contents
Age of the Population 2
Components of Total Population Growth3
Fertility 3
Mortality 4
Net Immigration 5
Population Used to Project the Labor Force 6
Changes to the Population Projections Since Last Year 7
Changes to Projected Fertility Rates 8
Changes to Projected Mortality Rates 9
Changes to Projected Net Immigration Flows10
Changes to the Projections of the Population Used to Project the Labor Force Since Last Year 11
About This Document 13Notes and Definitions
Population in this report refers to the Social Security area population, which includes all residents
of the 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia and civilian residents of U.S. territories. It also
includes federal civilian employees and members of the U.S. Armed Forces living abroad and their
dependents, U.S. citizens living abroad, and noncitizens living abroad who are eligible for Social
Security benefits.
The civilian noninstitutionalized population includes individuals who are 16 years of age or older
and excludes people who are on active duty in the Armed Forces or residents of institutions such as
prisons, mental facilities, and homes for the elderly.
The total fertility rate represents the average number of children that a woman would have if, in each
year of her life, she experienced the birth rates observed or assumed for that year and if she survived
her entire childbearing period, ages 14 through 49.
The Congressional Budget Office uses the term “foreign-born people without legal status” to refer
to foreign-born people who entered the United States illegally or who entered legally in a temporary
status and then remained after that legal status expired; generally, such people are not authorized to
work in the United States. Foreign-born people without legal status also include beneficiaries under
Temporary Protected Status, beneficiaries under policies whereby the executive branch does not
seek their immediate deportation (such as Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals), and people who
are paroled and allowed into the country while awaiting deportation proceedings in immigration
courts. Many of those people are authorized to work in the United States.
In this report, life expectancy refers to the amount of time that a person in a given year would expect to
survive beyond his or her current age on the basis of that year’s mortality rates for people of various ages,
sometimes referred to as period life expectancy. (That is distinct from cohort life expectancy, which incor-
porates projected changes in mortality rates and better reflects an individual’s actual life expectancy.)
Theage-sex adjusted mortality rate represents the rate that would be observed if the projected mortality
rates (by age and sex) occurred in a population with the same age and sex composition as the population
in a reference year. CBO uses the population in 2010 (the latest year for which decennial census data
were available at the time the projections in this report were produced) as its reference population.
The population on January 1 of a given year is estimated on the basis of the population on January 1
of the previous year and the projected number of people who are born or immigrate to the United
States and who die or emigrate from the United States during that year.
The population projections in this report reflect developments through February 14, 2022.
The data sources for all figures in this report may be cited this way: Congressional Budget Office,
using data from the Social Security Administration.
Data and supplemental information files—the data underlying the tables and figures in this report
and supplemental population projections—are posted along with the report on CBO’s website
(cbo.gov/publication/57975).The Demographic Outlook: 2022 to 2052
The size of the U.S. population, as well as its age and sex composition, affect the economy and the federal budget. For
example, the size of the working-age population affects the number of people employed; likewise, the size of the popu-
lation age 65 or older affects the number of beneficiaries of Social Security and other federal programs.
The Congressional Budget Office projects the population in future years by projecting fertility, net immigration, and
mortality. (In this report, the population is the relevant population for calculating Social Security payroll taxes and
benefits, known as the Social Security area population. See Notes and Definitions for more details.)
CBO’s projections of the population over the next 30 years are subject to significant uncertainty. If rates of immigra-
tion, fertility, or mortality were higher or lower than the agency’s projections, then the projected population would be
affected more in later years of the projection period than in the earlier years because differences in those rates com-
pound in each year of the 30-year projection period.
In CBO’s projections, the population increases from 335 million people in 2022 to 369 million people in 2052.
However, it grows at one-thi