Dissertation Submitted to
Hebei GEO University
for
The Master Degree of
Business Administration
Research on Risk Assessment System of Hebei Y Group
Investment Project
by
Di Cuiqin
Supervisor: Prof.
Zhang Rufei
December 2021
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摘 要
企业在完成原始资本积累并达到一定生产规模之后，多是将剩余利润投资其他项
目谋求更多发展机会。而在当前新冠疫情影响、中国经济发展进入新常态、国际贸易
低迷的历史时期，项目投资风险陡然提升。如何构建投资项目风险评估体系，对投资
项目进行全面、客观、科学地评估，预判各种风险影响并给出应对措施，是每个企业
进行项目投资时所要面对的挑战。
本文以河北省Y集团为研究对象，调查发现其项目投资多是依据管理人员个人好
恶和从业经验主观判断产生，缺乏规范科学的投资项目风险评估体系，在当前经济大
环境低迷时刻，往往导致投资项目收益与预期值偏离较大。为此，本文根据河北省 Y
集团现状，采用德尔菲法识别投资项目风险因素，利用层次分析法构建风险评估指标
体系，并引入模糊综合评价法建立风险评价规则，从而建立起一套适合河北省Y集团
的投资项目风险评估体系。
本文主要内容包括：（1）绪论。介绍本文研究背景、意义、方法及文献综述。（2）
相关理论综述。介绍中小化工企业的概念、行业特点，风险评估理论和风险管理理论。
（3）分析河北省 Y 集团风险管理现状及存在的主要问题。（4）构建河北省 Y 集团投
资项目风险评估体系。（5）风险评估体系的实际应用。（6）总结全文给出研究结论及
今后改进的问题。
本文通过定性与定量相结合的方法，为河北省Y集团构建了一套投资项目风险评
估体系，可以对其投资项目进行系统性的分析和定量化的评估，从而得出项目的整体
风险水平，有助于企业做出正确的投资决策。同时，该评估体系还可以分析出单个因
素的权重，找出主要风险和关键因素，有助于企业有针对性地采取风险控制措施。本
文研究思路和范式可以应用于其他企业，有一定的推广和借鉴价值。
关键字：风险评估体系，化工企业，层次分析法，模糊综合评价法。
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ABSTRACT
After completing the original capital accumulation and reaching a certain production
scale, enterprises usually invest the surplus profits in other projects to seek more development
opportunities. In the current historical period of COVID-19, when China's economic
development has entered a new normal and international trade has been depressed, project
investment risks have risen sharply. How to construct the risk assessment system of
investment projects, carry out comprehensive, objective and scientific assessment of
investment projects, predict the impact of various risks and give corresponding measures are
the challenges that every enterprise must face when investing in projects.
This paper takes Y Group in Hebei Province as the research object, and finds that its
project investment is mostly based on the subjective judgment of managers' personal likes
and dislikes and working experience, and lacks a standardized and scientific risk assessment
system for investment projects. When the current economic environment is in a downturn, it
often leads to a large deviation between investment project income and expected value.
Therefore, according to the current situation of Y Group in Hebei Province, this paper adopts
Delphi method to identify the risk factors of investment projects, uses ahp to build risk
assessment indicators, and introduces fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to establish
risk assessment rules, so as to establish a set of investment project risk assessment system
suitable for Y Group in Hebei Province.
The main contents of this paper include :(1) introduction. The background, significance,
method and innovation of this paper are introduced. (2) Review of relevant theories. The
concept, industry characteristics, risk assessment theory and risk management theory. (3)
Analyze the current situation and main problems of the project investment management of Y
Group in Hebei Province. (4) Establish a risk assessment system for investment projects of
Y Group in Hebei Province. (5) Practical application of risk assessment system. (6)
Summarize the whole paper and give the research conclusions and future improvement
problems.
By combining qualitative and quantitative methods, this paper constructs a set of
investment project risk assessment system for Y Group in Hebei Province, which can carry
out systematic analysis and quantitative assessment of its investment projects, so as to obtain
the overall risk level of the project and help enterprises make correct investment decisions.
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