摘要
中国债券市场发展至今，已成为中国经济发展不可或缺的部分，但在债券市场不断发展
的同时，债券违约现象也随之频频发生，违约规模不断扩大。2021年上半年违约规模更是
达到顶峰，其中房地产行业在 2021年上半年债券违约中涉及的违约规模最大，约为 587.2
亿元。而华夏幸福作为全国前 20强房企，即使在中国平安这样实力股东的资金支持下仍然
出现严重的债务违约问题，引起人们的广泛关注。在此背景下，本文通过利用修正后的 Y
分数财务预警模型对华夏幸福债券违约的原因进行分析，这不仅丰富我国房地产行业债券违
约分析的理论方法，并且为房地产行业的债务违约防范提供相关应对措施。
本文在信息不对称理论、债券违约理论、财务困境理论以及财务预警模型的理论基础上
运用文献研究法、Y分数财务预警模型分析法、定量与定性相结合的分析方法，对房地产企
业华夏幸福债券违约的风险进行分析并探究其发生债券违约的原因。
本文主要包括五个部分，第一部分是文章的绪论，第二部分是本文的理论基础，第三部
分是华夏幸福债券违约案例的介绍，第四部分主要是对债券违约的风险和违约的原因进行分
析。首先通过对原 Y分数财务预警模型的财务指标进行了增减，增加了模型中成长发展能
力的指标，减少了一些与现在差异较大的指标并利用 2020年房地产行业沪深 A股的所有上
市公司的财务指标，对 Y分数财务预警模型进行修正，利用修正后的 Y分数财务预警模型
对华夏幸福债券违约风险进行评估。接下来针对评估结果从内部和外部两方面来分析导致指
标变化、违约风险激增，最终使华夏幸福触及违约的原因。研究发现，华夏幸福债券违约的
内部原因主要包括其债券集中到期，偿债压力大以及盈利能力下降，公司战略治理水平存在
缺陷，公司成长能力不足等。外部原因包括房地产行业政策调控以及新冠疫情的影响。两者
共同作用最后导致华夏幸福财务状况恶化、债券违约风险增大，出现债券违约。第五部分是
根据前文的原因分析，针对性地为华夏幸福，房地产行业其他债券发行主体以及房地产行业
债券投资者提出债券违约风险的防范建议。希望通过对华夏幸福债券违约案例的分析，可以
提示房地产行业其他负债企业避免出现相同问题，同时也能给房地产行业债券投资者一点启
示，以期减少房地产市场中的债券违约事件，减少债券违约对投资者的伤害。
关键词：华夏幸福；债券违约；风险预警
I

Abstract
China's bond market has developed to become an integral part of China's economic
development, but while the bond market continues to develop, bond defaults occur frequently and
the scale of defaults continues to expand. The scale of defaults reached a peak in the first half of
2021, with the real estate industry involving the largest scale of defaults at about 58.72 billion yuan.
As one of the top 20 real estate enterprises in China, CFLD still has a serious debt default problem
even with the financial support of such a strong shareholder as Ping An of China, which has
aroused widespread concern. In this context, this paper not only enriches the theoretical approach to
bond default analysis in China's real estate industry by using the modified Y-score financial
warning model to study the bond default case of CFLD, but also provides relevant experience for
debt default prevention and treatment in the real estate industry.
Based on the theories of information asymmetry theory, bond default theory, financial distress
theory and financial early warning model, this paper uses literature research method, Y-score
financial early warning model analysis method and a combination of quantitative and qualitative
analysis methods to analyze the risk of bond default of real estate enterprise CFLD and explore the
reasons for its bond default.
This paper mainly consists of five parts, the first part is the introduction of the paper, the
second part is the theoretical basis of the paper, the third part is the introduction of CFLD bond
default case, the fourth part is mainly to analyze the risk of bond default and the reasons of default.
Firstly, by adding or subtracting the financial indicators of the original Y-score financial warning
model, increasing the indicators of growth and development ability in the model, reducing some
indicators with large differences from the present and using the financial indicators of all listed
companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen A-shares in the real estate industry in 2020, the Y-score
financial warning model is revised, and the risk of default of CFLD bonds is assessed by using the
revised Y-score financial warning model. The next step is to analyze the reasons that led to the
change of indicators, the surge of default risk and finally made CFLD touch default from both
internal and external aspects in view of the assessment results. The study found that the internal
reasons for CFLD's bond default mainly include its bonds' concentrated maturity, high debt
servicing pressure as well as declining profitability, deficiencies in the company's strategic
governance level, and insufficient company growth capacity. The external reasons include the
policy regulation of the real estate industry and the impact of the new crown epidemic. Both of
II
。。。以下略