华夏幸福债务违约案例分析
研究生姓名：郭育纯
导师姓名：金涛
学科：金融
研究方向：金融市场与投资
年级：2020级
中文摘要
随着经济发展的加快，房地产市场与金融市场的联系日益紧密使得系统性风险日
渐成了金融重点领域的突出风险。为了守住不发生系统性金融风险的底线，2016年
年末，中央经济工作会议首次提出“住房不炒”。此后，有关房地产政策相继落地，对
房地产企业融资、购房消费者信贷、买卖条件等方面都有一定的限制。加之 2020年
爆发新冠肺炎疫情对至今的影响仍未完全消除，给经济发展带来诸多不确定性。在这
种背景下，房地产企业债务违约数量激增，并且有从中小型房企向中大型房企演化的
趋势。因此，如何为房地产企业找到降杠杆、解决债务问题找到具体方法成为焦点。
本文通过研究华夏幸福债务违约案例，希望对华夏幸福解决债务危机提供一定帮助，
也可以给其他房企起到一定的警示和借鉴作用。
本文选取了 2021年初发生的较大的一起房企债务违约事件的主体对象——华夏
幸福进行研究，通过文献分析法、案例分析法、定量与定性结合分析法分析其债务违
约发生的过程，并采用鱼骨图分析法深入探究违约事件存在的问题和原因分析，以此
提出相应的对策。
研究结论表明，华夏幸福债务违约所暴露的问题是第一，其债务量价双高导致“债
务大”无法按期偿还。第二，其现金流动性缺乏导致其“没钱还”。第三，信用评级偏差
大导致其风险进一步扩大。而这些问题是由多方面因素造成的，其主要原因是：首先
在债务方面，存在安排不合理、股权质押占比过高和融资渠道单一等原因。其次在现
金流动性方面，不仅由于华夏幸福战略目标激进以至于扩张速度过快，在经营过程中
也凸显业务模式的弊端导致存货、应收账款占比较大；同时，财务状况严重下滑、区
域发展不协调、融资受到限制都是华夏幸福资金链断裂的原因。最后在信息制度方面，
华夏幸福的信息披露不及时以及评级机制的不完善导致其违约前后的信用评级偏差
大，不仅使得华夏幸福未能及时认清自身经营状况，也使得市场在极短时间内给华夏
幸福投了“否定票”，加快华夏幸福债务问题的爆发。
基于此，本文建议华夏幸福公司在债务层面，要对标政策标准，优化自身资产结
构，同时拓宽融资渠道，降低资金风险。在改善现金流层面，不仅要发展轻资产运营，
降低资金风险，而且要优化开发性 PPP模式，明确运营模式中的政企责任，提高经营
和资金效率。在信息制度层面，一方面华夏幸福要加强信息披露，提升经营透明度；
另一方面监管层也要规范信息评级，落实机构责任，以此来促进信用评级体系的风险
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预警作用。
关键词：房地产企业；华夏幸福；债务违约；财务危机
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Case Study of China Fortune Land Development
Limited Company's Debt Default
Graduate student：Guo Yuchun
Supervisor：Jin Tao
Major：Finance
Research direction：Financial markets and investment
Grate：2020
Abstract
With the acceleration of economic development, the increasingly close connection
between the real estate market and the financial market makes systemic risk increasingly
become a prominent risk in the key areas of finance. In order to forego systemic financial
risks, the Central Economic Work Conference proposed for the first time at the end of 2016
that housing should not be subject to speculation. Since then, relevant real estate policies
have been implemented, and there are certain restrictions on financing of real estate
enterprises, consumer credit for purchasing houses, and buying and selling conditions. In
addition, the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak in 2020 has not been completely eliminated,
bringing many uncertainties to economic development. In this context, the number of debt
defaults of real estate enterprises surges, and there is a trend of evolution from small and
medium-sized real estate enterprises to large and medium-sized real estate enterprises.
Therefore, how to find specific ways for real estate enterprises to reduce leverage and solve
debt problems has become the focus. By studying the debt default case of CFLD, this paper
hopes to provide some help for CFLD to solve its debt crisis, and also serve as a warning
and reference for other real estate enterprises.
This paper selects CFLD, a real estate debt default event that occurred in early 2021,
for analysis, through literature analysis, case analysis, as well as the combination of
quantitative and qualitative analysis method to analyze its default process happened and
studied using the method of fishbone diagram and the problems existing in the event of
default and cause analysis, in order to put forward the corresponding countermeasures.
The research conclusion shows that the problems exposed by CFLD's debt default are
as follows: first, its debt volume and price are both high, leading to the "large debt" that
cannot be repaid on schedule. Second, its lack of cash liquidity leads to "no money to pay
back". Third, the large deviation of credit rating leads to further expansion of its risk. These
problems are caused by many factors, the main reasons are as follows: firstly, in terms of
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