摘要
自布雷顿森林体系奔溃以来，黄金价格形成了向上的长期趋势；就黄金价格
短期走势而言，其价格变化表现为围绕向上的长期趋势而有周期的剧烈波动。黄
金价格为何形成长期向上的趋势，是何因素导致黄金价格有周期性的剧烈波动？
理论界、实务界从经济周期、宏观政策和黄金供需等角度进行了广泛的探讨，得
出很多有意义的结论，但在如何解释长期向上的趋势性和短期周期波动性方面缺
乏足够的说服力。本文试图探讨黄金价格与货币政策之间的内在联系，以期较好
地解释黄金价格的走势，为实务界的政策制定和投资提供参考。
本文使用理论分析和实证分析相结合的研究方法，选取 2000年至 2021年美
国的货币政策和国际金价的相关数据，通过使用基准 VAR模型和 MS-VAR模型，
分区制对不同的货币政策如何影响黄金价格和具体的影响渠道进行了研究，得出
了如下主要结论：
首先，整体来看，货币供应量会对黄金价格产生正向影响。货币供应量越多，
市场当中的货币量越多，货币便会贬值，人们为追求货币的保值因此就会增加对
黄金的需求从而抬高了金价。其次，不同的货币政策对于黄金价格的影响不同。
紧缩型货币政策会降低黄金价格，稳健型货币政策与黄金价格相关关系不大；宽
松型货币政策会提高黄金价格。此外本文通过三种渠道，即信号渠道、资产组合
平衡渠道和流动性渠道来说明不同货币政策的具体影响，最终发现不同货币政策
所发挥的渠道作用不同，对黄金价格产生不同的影响。
基于以上结论，结合市场实际，本文对央行、机构投资者和个人投资者提出
如下建议。首先，对于我国央行来说，一方面应当对全球黄金市场的走势以及主
要经济体的货币政策情况给予密切的关注，利用别国紧缩性货币政策期间，增加
我国的黄金储备；另一方面则应当大力推动人民币的国际化。其次，对于机构和
个人投资者来说，在进行黄金投资时，一方面应当高度关注经济周期变化规律，
特别是经济周期更换导致的货币政策的变化；另一方面应当在宽松型货币政策开
始时应当买入黄金，在宽松型货币政策结束前卖出。而在紧缩型货币政策开始时
应当卖出黄金，紧缩货币政策结束前应该购入黄金，以实现资产的增值。
关键词：货币政策；黄金价格；货币供应量； MS-VAR模型
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ABSTRACT
Since the collapse of Bretton Woods system, gold price has formed a long-term
upward trend; As far as the short-term trend of gold price is concerned, its price
change is characterized by periodic sharp fluctuations around the upward long-term
trend. Why does the gold price form a long-term upward trend? What factors lead to
the cyclical sharp fluctuations in the gold price? Theorists and practitioners have
conducted extensive discussions from the perspectives of economic cycle, macro
policy and gold supply and demand, and draw many meaningful conclusions, but they
lack sufficient persuasion on how to explain the long-term upward trend and
short-term cyclical volatility. This paper attempts to explore the internal relationship
between gold price and monetary policy, so as to better explain the trend of gold price
and provide reference for policy making and investment in practical circles.
Using the research method of combining theoretical analysis and empirical
analysis, this paper selects the relevant data of American monetary policy and
international gold price from 2000 to 2021, studies how different monetary policies
affect gold price and specific influence channels by using benchmark VAR model and
ms-var model, and draws the following main conclusions:
First, on the whole, money supply will have a positive impact on gold prices.
The more money supply, the more money circulation in the market, the more money
will depreciate. People will increase the demand for gold in pursuit of currency
preservation, thus raising the price of gold. Secondly, different monetary policies have
different effects on gold prices. Tight monetary policy will reduce the price of gold,
and the period of prudent monetary policy has little to do with the price of gold;
Loose monetary policy will raise the price of gold. Simultaneous interpreting the
different roles of different channels under different monetary policies.
Based on the above conclusions, combined with the reality of the market, this
paper puts forward the following suggestions for the central bank, institutional
investors and individual investors. First, for China's central bank, on the one hand, it
should pay close attention to the trend of the global gold market and the monetary
policies of major economies, and increase China's gold reserves during the period of
tightening monetary policies of other countries; On the other hand, we should
vigorously promote the internationalization of RMB. Secondly, for institutional and
individual investors, when investing in gold, on the one hand, they should pay close
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attention to the change law of economic cycle, especially the change of monetary
policy caused by the change of economic cycle; On the other hand, gold should be
bought at the beginning of loose monetary policy and sold before the end of loose
monetary policy. At the beginning of tight monetary policy, gold should be sold and
purchased before the end, so as to realize the appreciation of assets.
Key words: Monetary policy; Gold price; Money supply; MS-VAR model
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