W电商线上供应链金融风险管理 摘要 供应链贸易理论把企业的营运当作一个价值链增值的过程，同时提倡上下游产业 链之间的协同效应。供应链金融则是通过对贸易环节“商流、资金流、物流、信息流” 四流统一管控，使得其具有“自偿性、封闭性、可控性”的业务特点。其主要在资金 流层面将供应链节点上的参与主体联系在一起，是金融与商业的深度结合，搭建了新 型的战略合作关系，对供应链上中小微企业在融资过程中起到很好的增信作用。供应 链金融是解决我国当前中小微企业融资难题的一个重要选项。 当前，国内互联网技术深入发展，随着在线交易场景的扩展，不断打破传统金融 借贷场景、客户群体的局限，相应的线上供应链金融业务也日渐普及。供应链金融的 参与主体，也不再限于传统的商业银行、商业保理机构，许多电商平台、产业龙头， 作为供应链上的核心企业，比传统银行掌握了更多供应链各环节有效数据，这些数据 有着线上化、及时性、真实性、可得性等天然的优势。随着大数据技术的不断发展， 对供应链参与者的交易记录进行集中收集、数据挖掘、风险判断，使得供应链金融风 险管理不再孤立的以中小微企业自身财务状况来对信用违约风险进行评价变成可能。 但是作为非传统金融机构，这些参与到供应链金融业务中来的核心企业在金融风 险管理方面经验上仍显不足，也缺少针对性较强的实践数据。如何更好的将产业与金 融结合，将供应链上有价值的信息与专业的金融风险管理能力相结合，充分利用线上 数据对供应链金融风险管理作出有效决策，是一个较为具有现实意义的问题。 在此背景下，本文主要研究了W电商线上供应链金融业务的风险管理相关内容: 首先通过相关文献的阅读和分析对供应链金融及其风险管理、线上供应链金融特点的 国内外相关理论、研究成果进行了评述，总结相关研究的特点。接着以案例分析为主 要方法集中研究了核心企业W电商在开展线上供应链金融过程中的业务现状以及所 面临的各项问题。并站在风险管理的角度对其业务所面临的相关风险进行识别分析， 主要针对信用风险、操作风险、市场风险以及数据线上化带来的特有风险，总结出W 电商线上供应链金融的风险特征。之后，针对不同维度的风险，进行分析和评价。主 要侧重于利用W电商作为核心企业能够掌握的线上供应链交易数据，如订单、物流、 支付、流量、销量等非财务报表数据，以定性+定量结合的方式，采用主成分分析及 Logistic回归方法，筛选出了影响融资企业信用风险评价的5个主要维度，并进行违 约概率验证。形成了具有一定预判能力且在实际应用方面较适用性高、可操作性强的 信用风险评价模型。然后，对于模型在W电商风险管理实践中的运用情况进行实施 分析，并针W电商所面临对不同维度的风险提出切实有效的管控措施。从而完成了 摘要 对W电商供应链金融业务风险识别分析、风险评价体系建立以及风险管控措施建议 的风险管理研究。最后对全文的研究做出总结，并提出研究的不足以及对未来的展望。 本文主要研究成果为：区别于当前供应链金融风险管理研究以传统金融机构主导 为主要角度、以传统财务报表为基础作为主要信用评价方式,本文充分结合W电商的 线上交易数据,采用主成分分析及逻辑回归方法，对影响融资企业信用评价的主要因 素进行量化分析。将多维非结构化数据进行降维处理，整理出若干能够表达大部分违 约信息的主成分因素，运用Logistic回归模型，对信用违约进行判别，验证前述指标 对信用风险识别的准确度及预测能力。这个结果对于W电商风险管理过程具有一定 的指导意义：在评价线上供应链金融的信用风险方面，线上化的非财务数据具有很好 的使用价值。利用其及时性、真实性、准确性等特点，经过一定的逻辑加工处理，能 够较好的对中小企业信用状况进行识别与预判，因此对传统的信用评价过分依赖财务 报表数据来说是一大改进，在融资事前、事中及事后环节均能加以利用。事前可提高 信用判别的效率与准确度，事中事后可动态识别管理信用风险，提升预警效率。因此， 对于风险管理的整个活动过程效率提升均有所帮助。 普遍意义来说，当前国内线上供应链金融业务开展广泛，类似于W电商的核心 企业主导的供应链金融业务运作模式也趋于成熟。随着IT技术的发展、大数据技术 的广泛应用，相关供应链金融在线上数据采集、加工、分析、利用的整体能力趋于成 熟。因此，本文的研究成果能够对类似企业、类似模式的线上供应链金融风险管理提 供有效的参考依据。因其推广难度不大、适用性较高，相应企业在此基础上针对自身 场景稍加调整即能运用于自身的风险管理中，因此能够较好的完善在线供应链金融风 险评价体系、提升整体风险管理活动的效能。 关键词： 风险管理, 供应链金融, 线上供应链, 信用风险评价 ABSTRACT Online Supply Chain Financial Risk Management Research of W E-commerce ABSTRACT Supply chain finance is an important option to solve the financing problems of small and medium-sized micro-enterprises in China. The supply chain trade theory regards the enterprise's operation as a value-added process of the value chain, and at the same time advocates the synergy effect between the upstream and downstream industry chains. Supply chain finance has the business characteristics of "self-compensation, closeness and controllability" through the unified control of "business flow, capital flow, logistics and information flow" in trade links. It mainly connects the participants in the supply chain node at the level of capital flow, which is a deep combination of finance and commerce and establishes a new type of strategic cooperation relationship. It plays a very good role in increasing the trust of small and micro enterprises in the supply chain in the financing process. At present, the domestic Internet technology is developing in depth. With the expansion of online trading scenarios, the limitations of traditional financial lending scenarios and customer groups are continuously broken, and the corresponding online supply chain financial services are becoming increasingly popular. The participants in supply chain finance are no longer limited to traditional commercial banks and commercial factoring organizations, and many e-commerce platforms and industry leaders, as core enterprises in the supply chain, have more effective data in each link of the supply chain than traditional banks. These data have natural advantages such as online, timeliness, authenticity and availability. With the continuous development of big data technology, centralized collection, data mining and risk judgment of transaction records of supply chain participants make it possible for supply chain financial risk management to evaluate credit default risk based on the financial status of small, medium and micro enterprises no longer in isolation. However, as non-traditional financial institutions, these core enterprises involved in the supply chain finance business still lack sufficient experience in financial risk management, and lack of targeted practical data. How to better combine industry with finance, combine valuable information on the supply chain with professional financial risk management capabilities, and make full use of online data to make effective decisions on ABSTRACT the supply chain financial risk management is a more practical problem. Under this background, this paper mainly studies the relevant contents of risk management of W e-commerce online supply chain finance business: Firstly, through reading and analyzing the relevant literature, it reviews the relevant theories and research results at home and abroad on supply chain finance, its risk management and the characteristics of online supply chain finance, and summarizes the characteristics of relevant research. Then, it focuses on the business status and problems of W e-commerce company, a core enterprise, in the process of developing online supply chain finance by case analysis. And from the perspective of risk management, it identifies and analyzes the relevant risks faced by its business, mainly focusing on credit risks, operational risks, market risks and the unique risks brought by the upgrade of data lines, and summarizes the risk characteristics of W e-commerce online supply chain finance. After that, according to different dimensions of risk, analysis and evaluation are carried out. Mainly focusing on the use of W e-commerce as the core enterprise can grasp the online supply chain transaction data, such as orders, logistics, payment, flow, sales and other non-financial statement data, using the combination of qualitative and quantitative methods, using principal component analysis and Logistic regression method, screened out the five main dimensions that affect the credit risk evaluation of financing enterprises, and verified the probability of default. A credit risk evaluation model with certain pre-judgment ability, high applicability in practical applicati