在相对宽容的政策环境下经历5年的高速增长后，国内移动游戏产业逐渐进入瓶颈。 外有相关部门对网络游戏出版物号（以下简称游戏版号）总量的控制，内有用户红利坚 定、获客成本不断提高，产品同质化严重等问题。 游戏版号申请审核时间长、流程繁杂、复审概率大；2020 年 2 月，北京市宣传部明 确提出严查“马甲包”套用、复用游戏版号等现象。在此背景下，移动游戏厂商需要对游 戏产品的内容、品质投入更多的关注，对游戏用户进行精细化管理，优化用户体验环境。 拉长用户生命周期，提升用户价值。 针对上述问题，本文运用用户生命周期理论，结合移动游戏的虚拟特性，聚焦于移 动游戏用户生命周期的行为特点，以增强游戏用户良好体验、拉长用户生命周期、提升 产品商业价值为目的，在实证调研分析中发现 H 公司 D 游戏存在留存率低、用户生命 周期价值低等问题，通过建立新的模型，利用 R 语言和 K-means 算法对已有用户进行聚 类分析，析出 7 类具有不同特征值的玩家群体。通过分析不同用户群体的特征和需求， 分析了原有游戏运营的优劣，提出了精细化运营的优化策略。本文通过精细化运营策略， 提高 D 游戏用户的生命周期价值；通过优化合服策略，延长用户生命周期。在基于获取 更大收益的目标下，希望通过对先进理论方法的应用，促使游戏企业输出更优质更有深 度的游戏内容。 关键词：移动游戏；用户生命周期；用户细分；运营优化II Abstract After five years of rapid growth in a relatively tolerant policy environment, the domestic mobile game industry has gradually entered the bottleneck. There are external related departments to control the total amount of online game international standard book number (hereinafter referred to as the game ISBN), and internal problems such as firm user bonus, increasing customer acquisition cost and serious product homogeneity. The application of game ISBN has a complicated process which cost long time and high probability of review risk. In February 2020, Beijing Municipal Publicity Department clearly proposed to strictly check the phenomenon of "vest bag" application and reuse of game ISBN. In this context, mobile game manufacturers need to pay more attention to the content and quality of game products, fine management of game users, as well as optimize the user experience environment. Lengthen user life time and improve user value. In view of the above problems, this paper uses the customer life time theory, combined with the virtual characteristics of mobile games, focuses on the behavior characteristics of the customer life time of mobile games, with the purpose of enhancing the good experience of game users, prolonging the user life time, and improving the value of products. Through empirical research and analysis, it is found that there are low retention rate and low LTV in game D of company H. By establishing a new model, using R language and K-means algorithm to cluster the existing users, we extract 7 groups of players with different eigenvalues. By analyzing the characteristics and needs of different user groups as well as the advantages and disadvantages of the original game operation, the optimization strategy of refined operation is proposed. This paper improves the LTV of D game users by refining the operation strategy, and extends the customer life time by optimizing the cooperation strategy. Based on the goal of getting more profits, I hope that through the application of advanced theory and methods, game enterprises can output more high-quality and deep game content. Key words: Mobile Game, Customer Life Time, Customer Segmentation, Operation OptimizationIII 目 录 摘要...........................................................................................................................................I Abstract......................................................................................................................................II 目 录.........................................................................................................................................III 图表清单....................................................................................................................................V 第一章 绪论...............................................................................................................................1 1.1 选题背景介绍..................................................................................................................1 1.1.1 移动游戏行业环境.................................................................................................. 1 1.1.2 移动游戏行业面临的问题及机遇.......................................................................... 2 1.2 研究目的、意义..............................................................................................................4 1.3 研究方法和技术路线......................................................................................................5 1.4 研究命题相关文献综述..................................................................................................6 1.4.1 用户生命周期.......................................................................................................... 6 1.4.2 用户生命周期价值.................................................................................................. 7 1.4.3 用户细分.................................................................................................................. 7 1.4.4 游戏产业视角下的相关研究.................................................................................. 8 第二章 H 公司运营策略及产品数据分析.............................................................................10 2.1 H 公司背景.....................................................................................................................10 2.1.1 H 公司简介..............................................................................................................10 2.1.2 H 公司产业链角色和产品矩阵..............................................................................10 2.1.3 H 公司组织结构......................................................................................................11 2.2 现阶段行业运营策略分析............................................................................................11 2.2.1 业内一般应对方法................................................................................................ 12 2.2.2 业内尖端应对手段................................................................................................ 14 2.3 H 公司 D 游戏产品运营数据分析................................................................................15 2.3.1 D 游戏研发及运营基本情况..................................................................................15 2.3.2 D 游戏运营数据采集及预处理过程......................................................................17 2.3.3 基于 D 游戏数据的运营问题分析........................................................................22 2.3.4 D 游戏运营数据问题总结......................................................................................28IV 2.4 用户生命周期视角下 H 公司运营策略分析...............................................................28 2.5 本章小结........................................................................................................................33 第三章 H 公司 D 游戏运营优化............................................................................................34 3.1 基于用户不同生命周期的运营优化............................................................................34 3.2 基于用户全生命周期价值模型的运营优化................................................................38 3.2.2 D 游戏用户全生命周期价值模型..........................................................................38 3.2.3 玩家细分................................................................................................................ 40 3.3.4 基于本次用户细分模型的聚类结果的分析........................................................ 45 3.3.5 针对细分玩家的差异化调优对策........................................................................ 47 3.4 本章总结........................................................................................................................49 第四章 运营优化验证和实施保障.........................................................................................50 4.1 运营优化后效果对比....................................................................................................50 4.2 实施保障........................................................................................................................51 4.2.1 方案实施存在的难点............................................................................................ 51 4.2.2 实现运营优化方案的保障措施............................................................................ 52 4.3 本章总结........................................................................................................................53 结 论.........................................................................................................................................54