自从改革开放以来，随着我国经济的高速发展，经济主体越来越多样化，A 股上市公司成为我国经济主体的重要组成部分。面对如此众多的上市公司，银 行在向其贷款融资的过程中，从贷前调查、贷款项目评估和贷后管理等风险管 控的角度，对上市公司的整体内在价值的评估，是信贷投放的一个重要方面。 本文以农信社的合作客户甘肃电投公司为研究对象，将贷款投放中风险管 控作为决策目标，通过对甘肃电投的股票内在价值的评估和分析，作为贷前贷 后资金管理的依据。在投资分析相关理论的指导下，选择典型的价值评估模型， 在对各种模型的特征做出分析的基础上，选择甘肃电投作为研究范例，引用绝 对估值法和相对估值法对甘肃电投公司股票价值做评估，在此基础上评价甘肃 电投的股票投资价值。 本文从甘肃电投公司的基本情况入手，对公司宏观背景，行业发展，公司 会计政策和财务状况等作出具体分析。并根据在价值评估中的重要性大小，重 点分析电投公司的获取现金能力，盈利能力，偿债能力，运营能力和发展能力 等四个层面。选取 5 家同行业公司，从对比分析的角度，对甘肃电投的会计政 策和财务指标进行分析，从而得出相对估值法下的股票价值。同时，通过对行 业的分析，选择自由现金流量模型（FCFF）和适合重资产行业股票价值评估的 经济增加值（EVA）模型对甘肃电投的股票价值进行评估，得出绝对估值法下的 股票价值。通过对两种估值方法得出的结论进行分析，确定甘肃电投的股票内 在价值以及增长潜力，为提供资金支持的银行作好风险管控提供重要的决策依 据。 关键词：股票，投资价值，自由现金流量模型MBA 学位论文作者：周力遥 甘肃电投股份有限公司股票投资价值估值分析研究 IV ANALYSIS AND RESEARCH ON THE STOCK INVE- ATMENT VALUE OF GANSU POWER INVESTMENT AND ENERGY DEVELOPMENT CO.,LTD Abstract Since the reform and opening up, with the rapid development of China's econ- omy, economic entities have become more and more diversified. A-share listed companies have become an important part of China's economic entities. In the face of such a large number of listed companies, the bank's assessment of the overall in- trinsic value of listed companies from the perspective of risk control and control, such as pre-loan investigation, loan project evaluation and post-loan management, is an important aspect of credit issuance. This paper takes Gansu Electric Power Investment Co., a cooperative customer of Rural Credit Cooperatives, as the research object, and takes risk control in loan offering as the decision-making target. Through the evaluation and analysis of the intrinsic value of the stock of Gansu Electric Power Investment, it serves as the basis for fund management before and after loan. In investment analysis under the guid- ance of relevant theories, select a typical value evaluation model, on the basis of an- alyzing the characteristics of the various models to make the choice of gansu electric cast as the research sample, reference absolute valuation method and the relative valuation method of gansu electric company stock value assessment, based on the evaluation of gansu province for stock investment value. This paper starts with the basic situation of Gansu Power Investment Company, and makes a specific analysis of the company's macro background, industry devel- opment, accounting policies and financial status. According to the importance in value assessment, the paper focuses on analyzing four aspects of power investment companies' cash acquisition ability, profitability, debt paying ability, operation ability and development ability. 5 companies in the same industry are selected to analyze the accounting policies and financial indicators of Gansu Electric Power Investment from the perspective of comparative analysis, so as to obtain the stock value under the relative valuation method. At the same time, through the analysis of the industry, the free cash flow model (FCFF) and the economic added value (EVA) model suita-MBA 学位论文作者：周力遥 甘肃电投股份有限公司股票投资价值估值分析研究 V ble for the stock value evaluation of the asset-heavy industry are selected to evaluate the stock value of Gansu Electric Power Investment, and the stock value under the absolute valuation method is obtained. Through the analysis of the conclusions of the two valuation methods, the intrinsic value and growth potential of gansu Power In- vestment are determined, which provides an important decision basis for the Banks that provide financial support to make risk control. Keywords: Stock, Investment Value, Free Cash Flow ModelMBA 学位论文作者：周力遥 甘肃电投股份有限公司股票投资价值估值分析研究 VI 目录 中文摘要.................................................I Abstract ................................................ II 目 录...................................................IV 第一章 绪论 .............................................1 1.1 研究背景及研究意义...........................................1 1.1.1 研究背景 .................................................1 1.1.2 研究意义 .................................................3 1.2 研究内容及研究问题...........................................3 1.2.1 研究内容 .................................................4 1.2.2 研究问题 .................................................5 1.3 研究方法及论文结构...........................................5 1.3.1 研究方法 .................................................5 1.3.2 论文结构 .................................................6 1.3.3 论文的框架 ...............................................7 第二章 股票投资价值估值分析相关理论综述 ..................9 2.1 股票投资价值估值分析理论.....................................9 2.1.1 成长性投资理论 ...........................................9 2.1.2 价值投资理论 .............................................9 2.1.3 资产组合理论 ............................................10 2.2 股票投资价值估值分析基本方法 ...............................10 2.2.1 相对估值模型 ............................................10 2.2.2 绝对估值模型 ............................................11 2.3 国内外研究情况..............................................13 2.3.1 国外研究情况 ............................................13MBA 学位论文作者：周力遥 甘肃电投股份有限公司股票投资价值估值分析研究 VII 2.3.2 国内研究情况 ............................................14 2.3.3 国内外研究情况评述 ......................................14 第三章 甘肃电投公司基本情况和发展目标 ...................16 3.1 公司概况....................................................16 3.1.1 基本情况 ................................................16 3.1.2 经营状况 ................................................17 3.1.3 财务状况 ................................................21 3.1.4 职工基本情况 ............................................22 3.2 公司市场地位及竞争优势分析..................................23 3.2.1 市场地位分析 ............................................23 3.2.2 竞争优势 ................................................24 3.3 公司发展目标情况............................................25 3.3.1 经营目标 ................................................25 3.3.2 财务目标 ................................................25 第四章 甘肃电投公司股票投资价值估值分析 .................26 4.1 电力行业分析................................................26 4.1.1 行业政策 ................................................26 4.1.2 行业发展历史和现状 ......................................27 4.1.3 行业发展前景 ............................................29 4.2 会计政策分析................................................29 4.2.1 金融工具 ................................................30 4.2.2 固定资产折旧 ............................................31 4.2.3 政府补助 ................................................31 4.2.4 其他会计政策变更 ........................................33 4.3 财务报表分析................................................34 4.3.1 获取现金能力分析 ........................................34MBA 学位论文作者：周力遥 甘肃电投股份有限公司股票投资价值估值分析研究 VIII 4.3.2 偿债能力分析 ............................................35 4.3.3 营运能力分析 ............................................39 4.3.4 盈利能力分析 ............................................42 4.3.5 成长能力分析 ............................................45 4.4 甘肃电投公司股票价值估值分析................................47 4.4.1 相对估值法的估值分析 ....................................48 4.4.2 现金流量折现模型估值分析 ...............................49 4.4.3 经济增加值模型估值分析 .................................55 4.5 甘肃电投公司股票投资风险分析................................58 4.5.1 宏观经济变化风险 ........................................58 4.5.2 行业发展风险 ............................................59 4.5.3 公司经营风险 ............................................59 第五章 甘肃电投股票投资价值分析结论及决策建议 ...........60 5.1 估值结果....................................................60 5.2 决策建议....................................................60 第六章 结论和展望 ......................................61 6.1 研究结论....................................................61 6.2 研究的不足和展望............................................61