在世界社会经济全球化的背景下，企业面临着更加动荡不安和难以预料的政治、经济、 文化等社会外部环境的影响，并且，还包括不可抗力的自然灾害、流行病毒传播等不确定 因素，影响人类经营与生活，甚至直接摧毁一个行业的发展好和企业的生存。如此一来， 现代企业经营管理中全面地分析和高效地科学决策就显得尤为重要。 在 20 世纪 50 年代以前所流行的古典决策理论的“理性人”假设被越来越多的学者所 质疑，这些学者们注意到理性决策模式的假设条件在现实决策中难以被满足，并与现实情 况不符，学者们开始修补经典理论。在 1939 至 1942 年间，由赫伯特·西蒙提出的“有限 理性”的管理决策理论为日后的管理决策问题打开了探索的大门,著名学者丹尼尔·卡尼 曼的前景理论和理查德·泰勒的理论对不确定条件下的决策影响作了进一步解释与研究。 而本文将基于决策学前景理论的视角，试图发现和分析在房地产行业中的投资决策对投资 收益的影响及企业的影响，因为现阶段，随着房地产企业的开发成本增加和融资渠道变窄 等现金流的各方压力，无形加大了房地产企业的投资风险，就前阶段房产行业观察，有一 些企业为了能在房地产市场火热的时期下获取开发项目，投资主体对各个决策环节的分析 和判断较为乐观和激进，在本文分析中发现，一方面是调研的数据有所失真，另一方面是 在价格判断上存在明显的风险偏好，由其运用的决策工具或分析模型得出的结果也会与现 实情况不符。导致出现此结果的原因是由于决策者是在一个不完全理性地状态下进行的投 资决策，为了达到其预期目标依赖于直觉性经验反馈，追求风险，在决策过程中就出现一 系列不完全理性的投资决策行为，同时会不自觉地在预测投资风险上存在价值偏好等现 象，这印证了卡尼曼教授所提出的前景理论相关原理。这些不完全理性决策动作给现代企 业的决策管理提出挑战，同时务必对企业自身的发展带来巨大的影响。 本文研究思路是基于前景理论和决策管理相关原理的视角下对真实房地产项目的投 资决策问题进行研究分析。首先，梳理案例公司的基本情况及拿地动机等现状，以此作为 对本文研究背景的回顾。通过对已完成的项目初步研判及决策环境的成果，发现本文将要 研究的存在问题；其次，通过决策者在房地产投资过程中存在的问题现状，利用前景理论 相关原理提出不完全理性的假设，并结合假设设计出心理测试题给受试者，经结果反馈后 验证其假设；再次，利用比较分析法对已完成的项目投资前初步测算和投资后运营阶段的 经济测算结果进行分析，结合前景理论和决策理论相关原理去分析测算中差异结果的源 头，找出原因，说明这些不完全理性决策对房地产项目投资决策中实际已存在的影响，导 致企业收益远低于预期或给企业造成直接损失的结果；最后，本文围绕房地产企业管理开 发的角度提出一些防范不完全理性决策的实际措施和专业性管控对策，尽可能规避或减少 出现不完全理性的决策行为，进而优化决策管理体系，降低企业投资风险。 全文共分为五个部分： 第一章绪论。阐述研究该课题的研究背景和实践意义，研究的前提假设，本文研究对II 象的界定、本文采用的研究方法及本文的研究思路、结构框架和创新点。 第二章文献综述。本章主要从国内外管理学、心理学、经济学中有关决策和认知问题 的相关文献进行了梳理，从多个学科视角下对不完全理性决策作了深入的解析，其中有属 于较新的理论和学科，有着前沿的理论和观点，有助于解释不完全理性决策所产生的深层 原因。其次，对房地产投资基础概念和投资方法进行汇总，梳理了房地产投资类型和投资 获取土地方式，阐述房地产企业获取项目的途径。从已有的文献中得到一些启示并发现不 足之处，针对我国在房地产决策管理中对不完全理性决策的认识不够充分，理解不够到位， 提出了本文的研究和探索方向。 第三章 HF 公司案例项目回顾及存在的问题。本章主要分析投资房地产项目前时，各 个阶段、各专业条线的决策过程和判断依据，分析出项目拿地前决策时所存在的问题，再 进一步提出决策者在房地产投资过程中的不完全理性假设问题，并结合假设问题设计出心 理测试题给受试者。 第四章问卷结果与案例项目测算分析。本章通过前文假设问题，在引用前景理论和相 关决策原理等研究，设计出问卷心理测试题给受试者，并汇总了测试结果后验证了相关不 完全理性决策假设，再利用案例项目的投资前初步测算和投资后运营阶段的经济测算进行 结果对比，结合前景理论和决策理论相关决策原理去分析测算中差异结果的源头及决策效 应，说明这些不完全理性决策对房地产项目投资决策中存在的影响。 第五章总结、建议与展望。本文的最后一部分，在总结了全文的理论和实证研究结果， 梳理了房地产投资决策存在的问题，提出针对性、可操作性的建议及对策，应用前景理论 在房地产项目投资决策行为，尽可能规避或减少出现不完全理性决策，降低企业投资风险 和经营风险。同时，指出了本文研究的局限性和未来的研究展望。 关键字：前景理论 房地产投资决策 不完全理性 不确定性III Abstract Under the background of the globalization of the world social economy, enterprises are facing more unstable and unpredictable social external environment such as politics, e conomy and culture. It also includes force majeure natural disasters, epidemic virus trans mission and other factors that affect human life and business, even directly destroy the d evelopment of an industry and the survival of enterprises.It is especially important to co mprehensive analysis and make scientific decisions efficiently in the management of mod ern enterprises. With the continuous exploration of social development and economics, the assumptio n of "rational person" in the classical decision-making theory of traditional economics, w hich was popular before the 1950s, has been questioned by more and more scholars. The se scholars have noticed that the assumption conditions of rational decision-making mode are difficult to be satisfied in the real decision-making, and many traditional theories ar e inconsistent with the real situation. There are still problems to be solved. Economists began to try to repair the classical theory. From 1939 to 1942, Herbert Simon's "Bounde d Rationality" management decision theory opened the door to future behavioral economi cs. It laid a foundation for the research of behavioral economics such as Nobel Prize wi nner Daniel Kahneman's prospect theory and Richard Taylor's endowment effect that the influence of decision-making under uncertain conditions is further explained and studied. Based on the perspective of decision theory, this paper tries to find and analyze the infl uence of investment decision on investment income and enterprise in real estate industry. The real estate industry at this stage has become a real estate investment risk due t o increased development costs, narrower financing channels, and financial pressure. Howe ver, according to the observation of the real estate industry in the previous stage, in ord er toobtain development projects and expand the investment scale during the hot period of the real estate market, in the process of project investment decision-making, some ent erprises found that the decision-makers were optimistic and radical in their analysis and j udgment of various decision-making links, distorted the survey data, and had obvious ris k preference in price judgment. Therefore, the results obtained by the decision-making to ols or analysis models they used would also be inconsistent with the actual situation.The reason for this result is that investment decision-makers make decisions in an irrationalsta te. In order to achieve their expected goals, they rely on intuitive experience feedback a nd pursue risks.In the process of decision-making, there are a series of irrational decision -making behaviors. At the same time, there are some phenomena such as value preferenc e in predicting investment risks unconsciously.This confirms the theory of the future thatIV Professor Kahneman proposed. These irrational decision-making behaviors challenge the decision-making management of modern enterprises, and at the same time, they must bri ng great influence on the development of enterprises themselves. The research idea of this paper was based on Kahneman's prospect theory and the d ecision-making behavioral to study and analyze the influence of behavior and results in i nvestment management decisions of real estate case projects. First of all, this paper intro duced the background and decision-making environment of the case company. Secondly, t his paper put forward the irrational assumption of decision makers in the process of real estate investment, and designed psychological test questions for the subjects in combinat ion with the assumption questions, and verified the relevant irrational behavior assumptio n after summarizing the test results. Thirdly, this paper compared the results of the preli minary pre-investment calculation and the economic calculation in the post-investment op eration stage of the case project, analyzed the source of the difference results and the be havioral effects in the calculation by combining the prospect theory and the decision-mak ing behavioral, and explained the influence of these irrational behaviors on the investmen t decision of the real estate project. Finally, this paper put forward some practical measu res and control measures to prevent irrational behaviors, to avoid or reduce irrational beh aviors as much as possible, and to reduce the investment risks of enterprises from the p erspective of real estate development. The full text is divided into five parts: The first chapter is introduction. This chapter mainly introduced the background and theoretical and practical significance of the question, the premise and hypothesis of the research, the definition of the research object, the research methods adopted in this paper, and the research ideas and framework of this paper. The second chapter is literature review. This chapter mainly sorted out the relevant l iteratures on decision-making and cognition in behavioral psychology, behavioral economi cs and behavioral decision-making at home and abroad, and made an in-depth analysis of irrational behavior from the perspective of multiple disciplines. Among them, the three belong to relatively new theories and disciplines and have frontier theories and viewpoint s, which are helpful to explain the deep causes of irrational behavior. Secondly, this cha pter summarized the basic concepts and investment methods of real estate investment and explain the way that real estate enterprise obtains project, and sorted out the types of re al estate investment and the ways of acquiring land by investment. The author get some enlightenment from the existing literature and found out the deficiencies. In view of the fact that our country's understanding of irrational behavior in real estate decision-makingV management was not sufficient and understanding was not in place, the author put forw ard the research and exploration direction of this article. The third chapter is the design and process of research methods. This chapter mainl y analyzed the decision-making behavior process and judgment basis in each stage of the real estate project before investment, put forward the irrational assumptions of the decisi on-makers in the real estate investment process. The fourth chapter is the analysis of questionnaire results and case project calculatio n. This chapter summarized the test results that have designed psychological test question s for the subjects based on the assumptions.and verifies the relevant irrational behavior a ssumptions, then compared the results with the preliminary pre-investment calculation and the economic calculation in the post-investment operation stage of the case project, and analyzed the source of the difference results and the behavioral effect in the calculation by combining the prospect theory and the behavioral economic effect to illustrate the infl uence of these irrational behaviors on the investment decision of the real estate project. The fifth chapter is the conclusion and prospect. On the basis of summarizing the t heoretical and empirical research results, the last part of this paper pointed out the limita tions of this research and the future research prospects. Key：prospect theory, real estate investment decision-making, irrational, uncertaintyVI 目录 摘要................. I Abstract..... III 目录............... VI 一、绪论......... 1 （一）研究背景及意义............ 1 （二）主要研究方法与安排.... 2 1.研究方法........................ 2 2.研究内容及结构安排.... 3 3.论文创新点.................... 3 4.技术路线........................ 4 二、文献综述与理论基础............ 5 （一）文献综述........................ 5 1.决策管理概述................ 5 2.决策管理相关研究现状 6 3.投资决策相关研究现状 9 （二）理论基础...................... 10 1.前景理论...................... 10 2.前景理论的价值和缺陷 ........................... 16 （三）房地产市场投资决策概述......................... 16 1.投资类型与方式.......... 17 2.投资决策方法.............. 18 三、HF 公司案例项目及存在问题............................ 19 （一）项目回顾...................... 19 （二）项目分析及存在问题.. 19 1.土地市场...................... 21 2.商品住宅市场.............. 24 3.商业市场...................... 28 4.项目 SWOT 决策分析.... 30 （三）项目决策问题与原因.. 30 四、问卷调查与案例分析.......... 32 （一）存在问题假设.............. 32 （二）问卷调查...................... 34 1.问卷调查整体思路...... 34 2.问卷调查设计.............. 34VII 3.调查对象样本选取...... 35 4.问卷调查收集与统计.. 36 5.结果分析...................... 37 （三）投后运营阶段项目测算分析..................... 41 1.测算指标对比.............. 41 2.敏感性分析.................. 34 （四）实证检验小结.............. 43 五、总结、建议及展望.............. 45 （一）总结.............................. 45 （二）建议.............................. 46 （三）研究展望 .................... 49 附录................51