I 摘要 2013年，在哈萨克斯坦首都阿斯塔纳，中国主席习近平提出“一带一路”倡议， 中国在自身发展的同时，也要促进和帮助其他国家共同发展。随着“一带一路”倡议 逐渐从规划走向实践，相互合作、互利共赢的项目越来越多，给“一带一路”沿线许 多国家的经济带来稳定和发展。在此背景下，中国各类企业也加快了“走出去”的步 伐，包括国企、私企、在华投资的外企等都争相增加了对“一带一路”沿线国家的投 资。由于中国电力DCS市场竞争激烈,电力项目建设日趋饱和，从而造成电力DCS市 场也在不断萎缩。中国的DCS企业急需进行国外市场开拓和项目开发，“一带一路” 沿线国家的DCS市场正是DCS企业需要重点开拓和开发的新领域。随着DCS企业的国 际化参与程度不断提高，“一带一路”沿线国家的市场机会和机遇也会势必增加，所 以需要对其DCS项目风险和风险管理进行一个全面和系统性的研究和分析，以便能够 更好的面对和应对风险。分析和研究“一带一路”沿线国家的投资项目风险，不仅有 利于企业的投资和发展，也可以帮助企业提前做好项目风险的应对策略和措施。“一 带一路”沿线国家越南的投资项目越南Du yen-hai燃煤电站DCS项目风险管理研究 就成为了本文的重点关注对象。 DCS是燃煤电站的“大脑”和“神经”。企业通过向越南出售 DCS产品获得经济效 益和利润的同时，也应该充分意识到出口此类产品也存在着较大风险。根据越南Du yen-hai燃煤电站DCS项目的复杂性、不确定性、连续性等特征，制定了DCS项目风险 管理研究流程。依据风险管理研究流程，采用头脑风暴法召集项目成员集思广益、各 抒己见、描述出各种潜在的项目风险因素；运用检查表法记录、罗列、呈现项目失败 和成功的各种因素；并对可能造成项目失败的风险因素进行归纳、总结,得出项目初 步风险清单；采用德尔菲法对项目初步风险归纳、分类，识别出具体的DCS风险清单， 包含4个一级风险和17个二级风险。选用德尔菲法、层次分析法、模糊综合评价法分 别对DCS项目风险进行识别、计算和评价。运用德尔菲法和层次分析法，构造出DCS 项目风险结构模型，计算出各层次风险因素的权重；运用德尔菲法和模糊关系评价法， 创建出模糊关系评价表，构造出模糊关系矩阵，计算并评价DCS项目各级风险，得出 DCS项目总体风险程度为“一般风险”。通过运用多种风险应对策略，针对性的制定出 DCS项目风险应对措施，并对项目风险和应对措施进行有效的监控和调整，来保障越 南Du yen-hai燃煤电站DCS项目的顺利实施。 本文为越南Du yen-hai燃煤电站DCS项目设计了较为科学合理的风险管理方法和 方案，并将多种风险管理方法和风险应对策略和措施应用到项目风险管理的实际过程 中，以此来达到提升DCS企业的项目风险管理和应对能力，切实降低企业项目风险的 西安电子科技大学硕士学位论文 II 目的，使得DCS企业和行业能够更好的面对风险，帮助DCS企业更好的对项目的人力、 物力、财力等资源进行充分整合和有效利用，推动和促进DCS企业对“一带一路”沿 线国家及海外DCS市场进行市场开拓和项目开发。 关 键 词：越南，燃煤电站，DCS项目，风险管理 ABSTRACT III ABSTRACT In 2013, in Astana, capital of Kazakhstan, Chinese Chairman Xi Jinping first proposed the initiative of "the Belt and Road". While China is developing itself, it also needs to promote and help other countries to develop together. As " the Belt and Road " initiative gradually moves from planning to practice, more and more projects of mutual cooperation, mutual benefit and win-win will bring stability and development to the economy of many countries along " the Belt and Road ". Against this background, all kinds of enterprises in China have also accelerated the pace of "going out", including state-owned enterprises, private enterprises, foreign invested enterprises in China, and so on. Due to the fierce competition in China's power DCS market, the construction of power projects is becoming increasingly saturated, resulting in a shrinking power DCS market. China's DCS enterprises urgently need to carry out overseas market development and project development. The DCS market along " the Belt and Road " country is the new field that DCS enterprises need to focus on. With the increasing degree of internationalization of DCS enterprises, the market opportunities and opportunities of countries along the belt will also increase. Therefore, it is necessary to conduct a comprehensive and systematic study and Analysis on the risk and risk management of DCS projects in order to better face and deal with risks. Analyzing and studying the risks of investment projects along " the Belt and Road " countries is not only conducive to the investment and development of enterprises, but also helps enterprises to do well in the strategies and measures to deal with project risks ahead of time. The risk management research of Vietnam Du yen-hai coal-fired power station DCS project has become the focus of this paper. DCS is the "brain" and "nerve" of coal-fired power plant. While enterprises gain economic benefits and profits by selling DCS products to Vietnam, they should also be fully aware that there are greater risks in exporting such products. According to the characteristics of complexity, uncertainty and continuity of DCS project of Du yen-hai coal-fired power station in Vietnam, the research process of risk management of DCS project is developed. According to the risk management research process, brainstorming method is used to gather the project members' ideas, express their own opinions and describe various potential project risk factors; checklist method is used to record, list and present various factors of project failure and success; risk factors that may cause project failure are 西安电子科技大学硕士学位论文 IV summarized and summarized to get the preliminary risk list of the project; Delphi method is used to The preliminary risks of the project are summarized and classified, and the specific DCS risk list is identified, including 4 first level risks and 17 second level risks. Delphi method, AHP method and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method are used to identify, calculate and evaluate the risk of DCS project. By using Delphi method and AHP, the risk structure model of DCS project is constructed, and the weight of risk factors at all levels is calculated; by using Delphi method and fuzzy relation evaluation method, the fuzzy relation evaluation table is created, the fuzzy relation matrix is constructed, and the risk at all levels of DCS project is calculated and evaluated, and the overall risk degree of DCS project is "general risk". Through the use of a variety of risk response strategies, targeted development of DCS project risk response measures, and effective monitoring and adjustment of project risk and response measures, to ensure the smooth implementation of the Du yen-hai coal-fired power station DCS project in Vietnam. This paper designs a scientific and reasonable risk management method and scheme for the DCS project of Du yen-hai coal-fired power station in Vietnam, and applies a variety of risk management methods and risk response strategies and measures to the actual process of project risk management, so as to improve the project risk management and response ability of DCS enterprises, effectively reduce the project risk of enterprises, and make DCS enterprises and industries It can better cope with risks and help DCS enterprises better integrate and effectively utilize resources such as manpower, material resources and financial resources of the project to promote and promote DCS enterprises to carry out market development and project development for DCS market and overseas DCS market along " the Belt and Road ". Keywords: Vietnam，Coal-fired Power station，Project of DCS，Risk Management 插图索引 V 插图索引 图2.1 项目风险管理流程简图 ......................... 10 图2.2 越南Du yen-hai燃煤电站DCS风险管理研究流程图....... 13 图3.1 越南Du yen-hai燃煤电站位置示意图 . 16 图3.2 越南Du yen-hai燃煤电站DCS子系统结构图................... 18 图3.3 越南Du yen-hai燃煤电站DCS系统网络结构简图........... 21 图3.4 越南Du yen-hai燃煤电站DCS系统机柜布置图............... 21 图3.5 越南Du yen-hai燃煤电站DCS辅助车间(BOP)布置图 .... 22 图3.6 越南Du yen-hai燃煤电站DCS项目德尔菲法调查流程图.............................. 35 图4.1 越南Du yen-hai燃煤电站DCS项目风险层次结构模型... 40 表格索引 VII 表格索引 表2.1 多种项目风险评价方法比较列表 ..... 12 表3.1 越南Du yen-hai燃煤电站建设单位列表 ........