K 纸业公司运用期货工具规避采购风险研究 造纸行业作为国家经济建设重要的基础原材料工业，在国家经济发展中拥有着举 足轻重的地位，我国的造纸行业蓬勃发展，处于全球的领先地位，但由于国内林业资 源匮乏，国内的造纸企业高度依赖国外的木浆原材料供应，在产业链中处于弱势地位， 近年纸浆采购价格受国际市场影响而大幅波动，加之国内纸厂采购模式单一，策略僵 化，管理仍较为传统，企业的采购面临着较大市场价格风险和库存风险，锁定原材料 采购成本做好库存管理对企业实现目标利润至关重要，金融衍生品具有的风险规避功 能正好满足了企业的现实需要，为企业管理采购风险提供了有效手段。 本文主要研究如何利用期货工具来规避纸浆原材料的采购风险，以 K 纸业公司为 研究对象进行分析。首先，本文通过企业风险管理理论和期货市场规避风险理论的研 究，结合我国目前纸浆衍生品市场的发展现状和存在问题研究，从宏观到微观，研究 分析 K 纸业公司在采购过程中面临的市场风险和企业在采购管理中所面临的问题；然 后，理论结合实际，重点运用期货市场对 K 纸业公司原材料采购管理和动态库存管理， 最后提出了企业原材料采购套期保值业务的制度设计，将公司的套期保值战略制度化， 包括建立完善期货部门组织结构和完善公司决策流程与内部风险控制体系，从而将期 货套期保值的策略落实到公司采购管理之中。 关键词： 套期保值，大宗原料采购，采购管理，库存管理，纸浆期货III Abstract Research on Hedging Purchasing Risk by Futures in K Paper Company As an important basic raw material industry of national economic construction, paper industry plays an important role in national economic development. China's paper industry is booming and in the leading position in the world. However, due to the lack of domestic forestry resources, domestic paper enterprises highly rely on foreign wood pulp raw material supply, and are in a weak position in the industrial chain. In recent years, pulp procurement has been carried out The price fluctuates greatly under the influence of the international market. In addition, the purchasing mode of domestic paper mills is single, the strategy is rigid, and the management is still relatively traditional. The purchase of enterprises is faced with greater market price risk and inventory risk. It is very important for enterprises to lock in the purchase cost of raw materials and do a good job in inventory management. The risk aversion function of financial derivatives just meets the reality of enterprises It provides an effective means for enterprises to manage purchasing risk. This paper mainly studies how to use futures tools to avoid the purchase risk of pulp raw materials, taking K paper company as the research object. Firstly, this paper studies the enterprise risk management theory and futures market risk aversion theory, combined with the development status and existing problems of China's pulp derivatives market, from macro to micro, studies and analyzes K paper company's risk management theory and futures market risk aversion theory Based on the theory and practice, this paper puts forward the system design of the enterprise's raw material purchasing and dynamic inventory management, and institutionalizes the hedging strategy of the company, including establishing and perfecting the organizational structure of the futures department and improving the organizational structure of the futures department Improve the company's decision-making process and internal risk control system, so as to implement the futures hedging strategy into the company's procurement management. Keywords: Hedging, Bulk raw material purchasing, Purchasing management, Inventory management, Pulp futuresV 目 录 第 1 章 绪论.......................................................................................................1 1.1 选题的背景和意义..................................................................................1 1.1.1 选题背景...........................................................................................1 1.1.2 选题意义...........................................................................................2 1.2 国内外研究现状......................................................................................2 1.2.1 采购风险管理的研究...................................................................... 2 1.2.2 期货规避风险理论的研究..............................................................3 1.2.3 关于运用期货进行采购管理的研究..............................................6 1.3 研究内容和研究方法............................................................................. 6 1.3.1 研究内容...........................................................................................6 1.3.2 研究方法...........................................................................................7 1.4 研究思路..................................................................................................7 1.5 本文的创新点..........................................................................................8 第 2 章 基本概念与相关理论基础................................................................10 2.1 风险管理理论........................................................................................10 2.2 期货市场规避风险管理理论...............................................................10 2.2.1 期货市场功能理论.........................................................................11 2.2.2 套期保值的基本原理与基本原则................................................12 2.3 期货价格与现货价格的关系理论.......................................................13 2.3.1 期货价格的形成机制.................................................................... 13 2.3.2 期货价格对现货价格的价格发现和平抑功能............................14 第 3 章 造纸行业采购现状及金融衍生品的应用........................................15 3.1 造纸行业采购现状............................................................................... 15VI 3.1.1 纸浆原材料市场供给现状............................................................15 3.1.2 造纸企业采购风险........................................................................ 17 3.2 造纸行业金融衍生品应用现状...........................................................18 3.2.1 纸浆期货市场的发展现状............................................................18 3.2.2 实体企业运用纸浆期货的有效性分析........................................19 3.2.3 纸浆期权市场的发展现状............................................................20 第 4 章 K 纸业公司发展现状及存在的采购风险.........................................21 4.1 K 纸业公司简介和发展历程................................................................21 4.1.1 K 纸业公司简介............................................................................. 21 4.1.2 K 纸业公司的发展历程.................................................................21 4.2 K 纸业公司原材料采购风险................................................................22 4.2.1 原材料采购模式风险....................................................................22 4.2.2 原材料采购策略风险....................................................................23 4.2.3 原材料采购库存风险....................................................................24 4.2.4 原材料采购制度风险....................................................................26 第 5 章 K 纸业公司利用期货规避采购风险的方案设计............................ 28 5.1 运用纸浆期货合约进行采购管理.......................................................28 5.1.1 K 纸业公司采购策略选择.............................................................28 5.1.2 K 纸业公司采购成本的管理.........................................................29 5.2 运用期货工具进行库存控制...............................................................31 5.2.1 K 纸业公司库存策略的选择.........................................................32 5.2.2 K 纸业公司库存管理策略的运用.................................................33 5.3 原材料采购套期保值业务的制度设计...............................................37 5.3.1 健全采购套期保值业务的组织结构............................................37 5.3.2 完善公司决策流程与内部风险控制体系....................................38VII 第 6 章 运用期货进行采购风险管理的效果分析........................................42 6.1 有效地规避采购中价格大幅波动风险...............................................42 6.2 优化了库存，提高了企业的资金利用率...........................................43 6.3 改进企业的采购管理........................................................................... 45 第 7 章 结论及展望........................................................................................ 46 7.1 主要结论................................................................................................46 7.2 研究不足与展望....................................................................................46