融资是企业生存发展的起点，并且企业融资失败可能会带来破坏资金链的 风险。在企业的各种经济活动中，融资和投资活动是相辅相成的，企业融资活动 获取的大部分资金需用于满足投资需求。企业在进行融资活动时，需要充分考虑 各类投资活动的资金需求状况，有针对性地选择融资方式和融资规模。房地产行 业是我国重要的民生和支柱行业，其发展形势与国民经济整体的稳定发展息息 相关。近年来，房地产业上市公司面临着高速增长但融资困难和投资回收困难的 问题。如何预防和控制投融资风险，防止其演变为财务危机，已成为房地产业上 市公司当务之急。 因此，本文以房地产业上市公司为例，从微观层面分析其投融资特征与现状， 对其投融资风险进行预警，本文主要内容包括： （1）设计房地产业上市公司投融资风险预警指标体系。在对我国房地产上 市公司投融资状况分析的基础上选取风险预警指标，并通过“指标预处理→正态 性检验→差异性检验”的步骤遴选投融资风险预警指标，建立投融资风险预警指 标体系。 （2）设计房地产业上市公司投融资风险预警定位矩阵。首先利用熵权法将 多个投融资风险预警指标分别合成投融资期限错配风险预警指数和投融资结构 错配风险预警指数，然后在确定其风险阈值的基础上，构建了投融资风险预警定 位矩阵，定位房地产业上市公司的投融资风险警度。 （3）构建房地产业上市公司投融资风险预警模型。本文首先基于系统动力 学对投融资风险系统结构进行分析，然后构建出投融资风险预警仿真模型，以此 对房地产业上市公司的投融资风险进行动态预警。 （4）应用分析。本文以房地产业上市公司作为研究对象，将2009年-2018 年ST公司及其配对公司作为研究样本。首先对投融资风险预警指数和预警阈值 进行测度；然后在通过模型有效性检验的基础上，对其未来五年的投融资风险进 行仿真运行分析，利用预警定位矩阵定位投融资风险警度，最后设计风险防控对 策，以期做到在风险爆发前对风险进行防范。 文章所设计的投融资期限错配风险预警指标体系、预警定位矩阵以及预警 仿真模型能够较为准确地预测和定位房地产业上市公司投融资风险，并依据预 警定位结果给出合适的风险防范对策，具有一定的现实价值。本文尝试在以下三 II 个方面进行突破：（1）将投融资活动综合考虑，划分投融资风险为投融资期限错 配风险和投融资结构错配风险，从多个维度分析投融资风险的成因；（2）在研究 方法上，本文结合熵权法和系统动力学方法，借助Vensim软件对房地产业上市 公司未来投融资风险状况进行预测，在风险爆发前判定风险爆发的可能性，达到 事前预警的效果，实现对上市公司投融资风险实时预警的目的；（3）将矩阵定位 法运用到上市公司的投融资风险预警中，实现对房地产业上市公司投融资风险 警度的可视化显示。 关键词：风险预警；投融资风险；预警定位；预警仿真；房地产业上市公司 III Abstract Financing is the starting point for the survival and development of an enterprise, and the failure of corporate financing may bring the risk of damaging the capital chain. In various economic activities of an enterprise, financing and investment activities are complementary to each other, and most of the funds obtained by corporate financing activities need to be used to meet investment needs. When carrying out financing activities, an enterprise needs to fully consider the funding requirements of various investment activities and select financing methods and financing scale in a targeted manner. The real estate industry is an important people's livelihood and pillar industry in China, and its development situation is closely related to the overall stable development of the national economy. In recent years, listed companies in the real estate industry have faced rapid growth but difficulties in financing and investment recovery. How to prevent and control investment and financing risks and prevent them from becoming financial crises has become a top priority for listed companies in the real estate industry. Therefore, this article takes listed companies in the real estate industry as an example, analyzes their investment and financing characteristics and current status from a micro level, and provides early warning of their investment and financing risks. The main contents of this article include: （1）Design an early warning index system for investment and financing risks of listed companies in the real estate industry. This article first selects risk early-warning indicators based on the development status and investment and financing characteristics of listed companies in the real estate industry, and selects investment and financing risk early-warning indicators through the steps of index preprocessing → normality test → difference test to establish investment and financing risk early- warning indicators. system. （2） Design an early warning positioning matrix for investment and financing risks of listed companies in the real estate industry. First, the entropy weight method is used to synthesize multiple investment and financing risk early warning indicators into the investment and financing term mismatch risk early warning index and the investment and financing structure mismatch risk early warning index. Then, based on IV the determination of its risk threshold, the investment and financing risk early warning positioning is established. Matrix, positioning the investment and financing risk alertness of listed real estate companies. （3）Establish an investment and financing risk early-warning model for listed companies in the real estate industry. This paper first analyzes the investment and financing risk system structure based on system dynamics, and then builds an investment and financing risk early-warning simulation model to dynamically predict the investment and financing risks of listed companies in the real estate industry. （4） Application analysis. This article takes listed companies in the real estate industry as research objects, and takes ST companies and their counterparts from 2009 to 2018 as research samples. First, the investment and financing risk early-warning index and early-warning threshold are measured. Then, based on the model validity test, the investment and financing risks in the next five years are simulated and analyzed. The early-warning positioning matrix is used to locate the investment and financing risk warning degree. Finally, Design risk prevention and control countermeasures in order to prevent risks before risks erupt. The investment and financing term mismatch risk early warning index system, early warning positioning matrix and early warning simulation model designed in this article can more accurately predict and locate the investment and financing risks of listed companies in the real estate industry, and provide appropriate risk prevention countermeasures based on the early warning positioning results. Certain realistic value. This article attempts to make breakthroughs in the following three aspects: （1） Comprehensively consider investment and financing activities, divide investment and financing risks into investment and financing term mismatch risks and investment and financing structure mismatch risks, and analyze the causes of investment and financing risks from multiple dimensions;（2） In terms of research methods, this paper combines the entropy weight method and system dynamics method, and uses Vensim software to predict the future investment and financing risk status of listed companies in the real estate industry, determines the possibility of risk outbreaks before risk outbreaks, and achieves pre-warning. Effect, realizing the purpose of real-time early warning of investment and financing risks of listed companies; (3) applying the matrix positioning method to the early warning of investment and financing risks of listed companies, and V realizing the visual display of investment and financing risk warnings of listed companies in the real estate industry. Keywords:Risk Early-Warning; Investment and Financing Risks; Early Warning Positioning; Early Warning Simulation; Real Estate Listed Company 目 录 摘要 . I Abstract ........................ III 第1章 导论 .................... 1 1.1 研究背景 ........... 1 1.2 研究目的和意义 .............................. 1 1.2.1 研究目的 1 1.2.2 研究意义 2 1.3 国内外研究综述 .............................. 3 1.3.1 国外研究现状 ....................... 3 1.3.2 国内研究现状 ....................... 6 1.3.3 国内外研究现状述评 ........... 9 1.4 研究内容与方法 ................