改革开放以来，作为国民经济的支柱产业，传统制造业得到了迅猛发展，使我 国成为制造业大国。然而，我国传统制造业普遍存在大而不强的情况，在全球价值 链中处于附加值较为低端的位置，伴随着发达国家相继推出以重构制造业竞争优 势为主题的“再工业化”战略以及一些新兴国家劳动密集型制造业的快速发展，我 国传统制造业正遭受着“双向”挤压。与此同时，中国经济进入新常态，经济结构、 消费结构等都发生了转变，对传统制造业转型升级也提出了更高要求。 本文以传统制造业为研究对象，通过对传统制造业发展现状及困境进行分析， 明确传统制造业进行转型升级的必然性以及存在的问题和困境，然后通过分析我 国传统制造业转型升级水平，进而从传统制造业转型升级驱动因素和作用机制对 其进行进一步的探讨和研究：（1）从经济增长水平、绿色发展水平、创新学习能 力、信息技术水平四个维度构建了22个具体指标，利用熵权法测度了2007-2017 年我国整体及各省份传统制造业转型升级的水平，发现我国传统制造业转型升级 水平整体上呈现持续上升，而各地区传统制造业转型升级水平参差不齐。（2）利 用计量模型，考量了技术创新、环境规制、要素禀赋、人力资本、地方政府参与度、 地方经济发展水平、消费需求、市场化程度以及出口水平对于传统制造业转型升级 的影响，结果显示自主创新投入、人力资本对企业转型升级影响不显著，而学习模 仿创新投入、创新产出、环境规制、地区经济发展水平、市场化程度以及出口水平 对转型升级有显著的促进作用，地方政府参与度和消费需求则对制造企业转型升 级影响呈现显著的抑制作用。（3）运用演化博弈理论，构建地方政府与传统制造 企业转型升级的演化博弈模型，探究了地方政府采取激励措施对传统制造企业转 型升级积极性提升的有效性，并对影响双方决策方向选择的因素进行了分析，论证 了地方政府如何发挥政府干预作用以提高传统制造业转型升级的积极性、推动我 国传统制造业实现成功转型升级。 关键词：传统制造企业；转型升级；熵权法；计量分析；演化博弈 III ABSTRACT Since the reform and opening-up, as the pillar industry of the national economy, the traditional manufacturing industry has developed rapidly, making China become a manufacturing powerhouse. However, China's traditional manufacturing industry is generally large but not strong, which is in the low-end position of added value in the global value chain. Along with the developed countries successively launching the “re industrialization” strategy with the theme of reconstructing the competitive advantage of manufacturing industry and the rapid development of labor-intensive manufacturing industry in some emerging countries, China's traditional manufacturing industry is suffering from "two-way" squeeze. At the same time, China's economy has entered the “new normal” economy, and the economic structure and consumption structure have changed, which also puts forward higher requirements for the transformation and upgrading of traditional manufacturing industry. This paper takes the traditional manufacturing industry as the research object, through the analysis of the development status and difficulties of the traditional manufacturing industry, to clarify the inevitability, existing problems and difficulties of the transformation and upgrading of the traditional manufacturing industry. Then through the analysis of the transformation and upgrading level of the traditional manufacturing industry in China, to further explore and study the driving factors and mechanism of the transformation and upgrading of the traditional manufacturing industry investigate: (1) 22 specific indicators are constructed from the four dimensions of economic growth level, green development level, innovative learning ability and information technology level. The entropy weight method is used to measure the transformation and upgrading level of traditional manufacturing industry in China and each province in 2007-2017. It is found that the transformation and upgrading level of China's traditional manufacturing industry has continued to rise, while the transformation and upgrading level of traditional manufacturing industry in each region participates is uneven. (2) The influences of technological innovation, environmental regulation, factor endowment, human capital, local government participation, local economic development level, consumption demand, marketization and export level on the transformation and upgrading of traditional manufacturing enterprises are considered and discussed by using the econometric model. The results show that independent innovation input and human capital have no significant impact on the transformation and upgrading of traditional manufacturing enterprises, IV while learning to imitate innovation input, innovation output, environmental regulation, regional economic development level, marketization degree and export level have a significant role in promoting the transformation and upgrading, and local government participation and consumption demand have a significant inhibition effect on the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing enterprises. (3) Based on the evolutionary game theory, this paper constructs the evolutionary game model of the transformation and upgrading of local government and traditional manufacturing enterprises, explores the effectiveness of local government's incentive measures to enhance the enthusiasm of the transformation and upgrading of traditional manufacturing enterprises. Then analyzes the factors that affect the choice of decision-making direction of both sides. And demonstrates how local government can play the role of government intervention to improve the enthusiasm of transformation and upgrading of traditional manufacturing industry and promotes the successful transformation and upgrading of China's traditional manufacturing industry. KEYWORDS: Traditional Manufacturing Enterprises; Transformation and Upgrading; Entropy Weight Method; Econometric Analysis；Evolutionary Game; V 目 录 第一章 绪论 .................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 研究背景与意义 ................................................................................................... 1 1.1.1 研究背景 ......................................................................................................... 1 1.1.2 研究意义 ......................................................................................................... 3 1.2 文献综述 ............................................................................................................... 3 1.2.1 企业转型升级相关概念及理论研究 ............................................................. 3 1.2.2 企业转型升级的动因研究 ............................................................................. 2 1.2.3 企业转型升级水平的衡量及绩效研究 ......................................................... 3 1.2.4 企业转型升级影响因素研究 ......................................................................... 4 1.2.5 企业转型升级的模式和路径研究 ................................................................. 5 1.2.6 研究述评 ......................................................................................................... 6 1.3 研究方法及研究内容 ........................................................................................... 7 1.3.1 研究方法 ......................................................................................................... 7 1.3.2 研究内容 ......................................................................................................... 7 1.4 可能的创新之处 ................................................................................................... 8 第二章 理论基础 ............................................................................................................ 9 2.1 传统制造业转型升级的相关理论 ....................................................................... 9 2.1.1 传统制造业转型升级的内涵 ......................................................................... 9 2.1.2 传统制造业转型升级的相关理论基础 ......................................................... 9 2.2 传统制造业转型升级水平的测度方法 ............................................................. 11 2.2.