近十年来，全球范围内都面临着环境污染的问题，中国在面对这个挑战时， 为了降低环境恶化的速度，将新能源汽车作为一个确定性的新发展方向，通过此 项重要途径将空气质量逐渐治理过来。年我国开始发展新能源汽车，而最近几年 的发展速度开始有所提升，但是各家车企与桩企执行的标准不统一，设备与终端 没有完全匹配和兼容。为了不断提升新能源汽车持续发展水平，我国相继出台了 一系列新能源发展规划，各级政府也结合自身实际出台不同的扶持政策，不过考 虑到不同地区政策差异，执行力度也存在很大的不同。苏州市目前已建成约350 个电动汽车快速充电站，多根快速充电桩，充电公共服务网络初步形成，同时也 基本实现城市核心区2公里充电圈的目标。但是，这些充电基础设施的数量依旧 很难与新能源汽车的发展速度相提并论，整体充电桩的利用率并不高，燃油车抢 占电动车充电位现象经常发生，这说明市场保有量和便利的充电基础设施远远没 有符合市场预期。充电设施项目的投资建设与运营是一个系统工程，涉及到对政 策、资金、市尝技术、运营等一系列问题的把握，因此具有较高的投资风险， 研究充电设施建设项目的风险管控是十分必要的。 本文分析中，我们主要介绍了风险管理理论，以S公司电动汽车充电站项目 为例，运用德尔菲法，识别分析其中存在着的市场风险、政策风险、运营维护风 险以及技术风险等。然后采用专家打分法与LEC半定量分析法对上述风险进行 分析与评价。最后，根据得到的风险等级制定相应的应对策略和措施。以期能够 帮助S公司在此项目上能够取得较满意的收益，同时为S公司将来其他充电场站 的投资和建设提供借鉴和参考价值。 关键字：新能源汽车；充电基础设施；风险管理；半定量分析法 III Abstract Inthelastdecade,allovertheworld,wearefacingtheproblemofairand environmentalpollution.Inthefaceofthischallenge,inordertoreducethespeedof environmentaldegradation,Chinatakesnewenergyvehiclesasacertainnew developmentdirection.Throughthisimportantway,theairqualitywillbegradually controlled.In,Chinabegantodevelopnewenergyvehicles,andinrecentyears,the developmentspeedbegantoimprove.However,thestandardsimplementedby variousautomobileenterprisesandpileenterprisesarenotunified,andtheequipment andterminalarenotfullymatchedandcompatible.However,takingintoaccountthe differencesinpoliciesindifferentregions,theimplementationeffortsarealsovery different..Withthesupportofthepolicy,aboutfastchargingstationsandmorethan fastchargingpileshavebeenbuiltinSuzhou.However,thephenomenonoffuel vehiclesseizingthechargingpositionofelectricvehiclesoftenoccurs.The developmentofnewEVsneedstohaveenoughmarketshareandconvenientcharging infrastructureasaguarantee.Theinvestment,constructionandoperationofcharging facilitiesisasystematicproject,whichinvolvesaseriesofissuessuchaspolicy, capital,market,technologyandoperation.Therefore,theinvestmentriskisrelatively high,soitisnecessarytostudytheriskcontrolofchargingfacilitiesconstruction project. Intheanalysisofthisarticle,wemainlyintroducedthetheoryofrisk management,takingtheelectricvehiclechargingstationprojectofSCompanyasan example,usingtheDelphimethodtoidentifyandanalyzethemarketrisks,policy risks,operationandmaintenancerisksandtechnicalrisksthatexist.Thentheexpert scoringmethodandLECsemiquantitativeanalysismethodareusedtoanalyzeand evaluatetheaboverisks.Finally,accordingtotherisklevel,thecorresponding strategiesandmeasuresaremade.Inordertohelpcompanytoobtainmore satisfactoryincomeinthisproject,andprovidereferencevaluefortheinvestmentand constructionofotherchargingstationsofScompanyinthefuture. Keywords:Charginginfrastructure;Riskmanagement;Semiquantitativeanalysis; IV 目录 致谢.............................................................................................................................................I 摘要............................................................................................................................................II Abstract......................................................................................................................................III 第1章绪论..............................................................................................................................1 1.1.选题背景与研究意义.....................................................................................................1 1.1.1.选题背景.................................................................................................................1 1.1.2.研究目的.................................................................................................................3 1.1.3.研究意义.................................................................................................................4 1.2.国内外研究现状.............................................................................................................5 1.2.1.国外研究现状.........................................................................................................5 1.2.2.国内研究现状.........................................................................................................7 1.2.3.国内外研究现状综述.............................................................................................8 1.3.研究内容与基本框架.....................................................................................................9 1.3.1.研究内容.................................................................................................................9 1.3.2.基本框架.................................................................................................................9 1.4.研究方法.......................................................................................................................10 1.4.1.研究方法介绍.......................................................................................................10 第2章相关概念及理论........................................................................................................12 2.1.电动汽车与充电设施基本概念...................................................................................12 2.1.1.新能源电动汽车相关概念...................................................................................12 2.1.2.充电设施介绍及其相关商业模式介绍...............................................................13 2.2.项目风险管理理论.......................................................................................................15 2.2.1.项目风险识别.......................................................................................................15 2.2.2.项目风险评估.......................................................................................................16 2.2.3.项目风险控制.......................................................................................................19 第3章中国电动汽车充电设施发展及运营现状................................................................20 3.1.宏观经济形势分析.......................................................................................................20 3.2.中国电动汽车充电设施发展现状...............................................................................20 3.3.充电设施项目运营现状...............................................................................................21 V 3.4.充电设施项目普遍存在的问题...................................................................................21 第4章S公司电动汽车充电站项目现状及风险识别........................................................24 4.1.S公司电动汽车充电站项目现状...............................................................................24 4.2.S公司电动汽车充电站项目SWOT分析.................................................................25 4.2.1.项目优势分析.......................................................................................................25 4.2.2.项目劣势分析.......................................................................................................26 4.2.3.项目机遇分析.......................................................................................................27 4.2.4.项目威胁分析.......................................................................................................27 4.3.S公司电动汽车充电站项目风险识别与成因分析.........................................