近年来，由于医药企业对供应链质量及效率提出了很高要求，供应链风险管 理日益成为医药企业供应链管理体系中至关重要的一环。可是，各种供应链风险 事件的频发却暴露出整个医药行业在供应链管理方面所面临的各种问题。 本文运用SCOR模型、BP神经网络法、调查问卷法、案例归纳法等研究了九 州通医药集团供应链管理所面临的多重风险，分析了该企业内外部环境和供应链 运行存在的问题，基于SCOR模型对九州通医药集团供应链风险因素进行了针对 性识别，建立了供应链风险指标框架体系，并针对重要供应链风险点提出了相应 的控制措施。主要内容包括7个部分：第一部分，分析论题产生的背景和研究意 义，从供应链的涵义及形成机理、供应链风险的涵义及分类、供应链风险的识别 与控制、供应链风险因素的评估方法与模型、供应链运作参考模型（SCOR）研究 等5个方面入手，对国内外文献进行了归纳、分类和梳理；第二部分，概述供应 链风险理论和SCOR模型，为本文后续的理论与实证研究提供理论依据和支撑； 第三部分，运用PEST分析法和核心竞争力模型对九州通医药集团所面临的外部环 境、行业环境和企业自身的内部环境进行了分析；第四部分，分析九州通医药集 团供应链现状、结构、发展新方向和供应链风险管理中存在的问题；第五部分， 基于SCOR模型，从计划、采购、配送、退货、研发和外部风险6个方面出发， 识别了九州通医药集团供应链风险中的主要风险种类和风险因素，并对180份调 查问卷进行了信度和效度分析以及BP神经网络统计、预测，最终确定28个关键 风险指标因素；第六部分，利用调查问卷的相关数据，构建了九州通医药集团供 应链风险指标框架体系；第七部分，针对九州通医药集团重要供应链风险点提出 控制措施。 本文形成如下结论：第一，九州通医药集团存在的9大供应链风险问题制约 其供应链未来健康发展。第二，本文基于SCOR模型，对九州通医药集团供应链 风险管理面临的6大风险种类进行了分析，识别了28个关键风险指标因素并运用 BP神经网络法进行了准确预测，并且运用供应链管理相关理论和工具进一步对这 28个关键风险指标因素进行了控制研究。第三，为促进九州通医药集团供应链管 理的健康发展，本文结合九州通医药集团供应链风险实际，提出了9大项九州通 医药集团供应链风险防范及配套措施建议。 关键词：供应链风险；识别与控制；SCOR模型；重要风险点 基于SCOR模型九州通医药集团供应链风险识别与控制研究 II Abstract In recent years, due to the high requirements of Pharmaceutical Companies on the quality and efficiency of the Supply Chain, supply chain risk management has increasingly become a vital part of the Pharmaceutical Companies’ supply chain management system. However, the frequent occurrence of various supply chain risk events has exposed various problems faced by the whole Pharmaceutical Industry in supply chain management. This paper uses the SCOR model, BP Neural Network Method, Questionnaire Method, Case Induction Method to study the multiple risks in supply chain management which the Jointown Pharmaceutical Group（J.P.G）faced to Analyze the internal and external environment and the problems existing in the supply chain operation of J.P.G use the SCOR model to identify the risk factors of the J.P.G supply chain, establish a Supply Chain Risk Indicator Framework System, and proposed corresponding control measures for important supply chain risk points. The content includes seven parts: The first part analyzes the background and research significance of the thesis. The first part perused various domestic and foreign literature and classified into 5 sections, the meaning, and formation mechanism of the supply chain, the meaning and classification of supply chain risk, the identification and control of supply chain risk, and the evaluation of supply chain risk factors Methods and models and supply chain operation reference model (SCOR) research. The second part is an overview of supply chain risk theory and SCOR-model. To provide a theoretical basis and support for empirical research, the third part analyzes the external environment, industry environment and the internal environment of the company by using the PEST analysis method and Core Competitiveness Model. The fourth part analyzes the current status, structure, new direction of supply chain and problems in supply chain risk management of J.P.G. The fifth part uses the SCOR-model to identify the main types of risks and risk factors in the supply chain risks in J.P.G from the planning, procurement, distribution, return, research and development and external risks MBA学位论文 III aspects and analyze the reliability and validity of 180 questionnaires, as well as BP neural network statistics and predictions. Finally, 28 key risk index factors were determined. The sixth part uses the relevant data of the questionnaire to construct the supply chain risk indicators framework system of J.P.G. In the seventh part, it proposes control measures for the important supply chain risk points of the J.P.G. This article draws the following unique conclusions: First, there are 9 major supply chain risks that exist in J.P.G that restrict the development of its supply chain. Secondly, this paper based on the SCOR-model to analyzes six major risks of the supply chain risk management in J.P.G and identify 28 key risk index factors. Use the BP neural network method to predict accurately, and uses related theories of the supply chain management and tools to control the 28 key risk index factors. Thirdly, in order to promote the healthy development of the supply chain management in J.P.G, this article puts forward nine major measures to prevent risk and construct related measures of J.P.G supply chain management. KEYWORDS: Supply chain risk; Identification and control; SCOR-model; Important risk points 基于SCOR模型九州通医药集团供应链风险识别与控制研究 IV 目 录 摘要 ............................. I ABSTRACT .................... II 图表目录 ..................... VII 第1章 绪 论 .............. 1 1.1 研究背景和研究意义 ....................... 1 1.1.1 研究背景 .... 1 1.1.2 研究意义 .... 2 1.2 国内外研究现状综述 ....................... 2 1.2.1 供应链的涵义及形成机理研究 . 2 1.2.2 供应链风险的涵义及分类研究 . 3 1.2.3 供应链风险的识别与控制研究 . 4 1.2.4 供应链风险因素的评估方法与模型研究 ................ 6 1.2.5 供应链运作参考模型（SCOR）研究 ...................... 7 1.2.6 对现有文献的评述 .................... 8 1.3 研究内容 ........... 9 1.4 研究方法和技术路线 ..................... 10 1.4.1 研究方法 .. 10 1.4.2 技术路线 .. 11 第2章 供应链风险理论和SCOR模型概述 ........................... 12 2.1 供应链风险理论............................. 12 2.1.1 供应链风险理论发展脉络 ...... 12 2.1.2 供应链风险理论的基本内容... 12 2.2 SCOR模型 ....... 13 2.2.1 SCOR涵义及流程 ................... 13 2.2.2 SCOR模型优势 ....................... 13 2.3 BP神经网络法 13 2.3.1 BP神经网络涵义及优势 ......... 13 2.3.2 BP神经网络结构及学习方式 .. 15 2.4医药企业供应链风险管理成功案例 .............................. 16 2.4.1 华润医药 .. 16 2.4.2 国药控股 .. 17 2.4.3 华润医药和国药控股的供应链风险管理启示 ....... 17 MBA学位论文 V 第3章 九州通医药集团内外部环境分析 19 3.1九州通医药集团简介 ...................... 19 3.2九州通医药集团外部环境分析 ...... 19 3.2.1 外部一般环境分析 .................. 19 3.2.2 行业分析 .. 21 3.2.3 同行业其他企业分析 .............. 22 3.3 内部环境分析 . 21 第4章 九州通医药集团供应链风险分析 28 4.1 九州通医药集团供应链现状 ......... 28 4.2 九州通医药集团供应链结构 ......... 29 4.3 九州通医药集团供应链发展新方向 ............................. 30 4.3.1专注研发供应链新技术 ........... 30 4.3.2向医院提供第三方服务 ........... 30 4.4 九州通医药集团供应链管理存在的问题 ..................... 30 第5章 基于SCOR模型九州通医药集团供应链风险识别 .... 33 5.1 基于SCOR模型九州通医药集团供应链风险因素识别 ............................ 33 5.1.1 计划风险 .. 33 5.1.2 采购风险 .. 33 5.1.3 配送风险 .. 34 5.1.4 退货风险 .. 34 5.1.5 研发风险 .. 34 5.1.6 外部风险 .. 34 5.2 调查问卷设计 . 35 5.2.1 调查问卷 .. 35 5.2.2 数据处理和问题分析 .............. 37 5.3 问卷的信度和效度检验 ................. 40 5.3.1 信度检验 .. 40 5.3.2 效度检验 .. 40 5.4 期望值的确定 . 41 第6章 九州通医药集团供应链风险控制研究 ........................ 44 6.1 计划风险 ......... 44 6.2 采购风险 ......... 45 6.2.1 规避采购风险手段 .................. 45 6.2.2 采购质量管理 ......................... 46 6.3 配送风险 ......... 46 基于SCOR模型九州通医