近年以来，世界范围内企业跨国并购面临着深刻的国内外背景。在2008年 全球性金融危机爆发以来，世界经济一度陷入长期停滞阶段。新经济的结构性改 革冲击和逆全球化政策势头的兴起，迫使世界经济在阶段性反弹中产生剧烈分化， 导致全球经济存在巨大不确定性。企业乃至国家的外部环境产生剧烈变化。经济 不确定性由实体经济不确定性和经济政策不确定性两部分组成。其中前者的外生 性与突发性强，受政府能动性控制较小。相比而言，经济政策的变化具有较大的 内生主观性与可控性，对其的研究更具有理论指导和现实操作意义。与其他类型 投资相比，对外直接投资尤其是跨国并购属于风险较高的投资，对相关经济政策 的敏感性更高，是实体经济活动中比较容易受波动的部分。在考虑经济政策不确 定性的影响作用，尤其是对企业跨国并购等对外直接投资时不可以忽视另一个重 要环境因素——全球价值链。全球价值链的兴起对国际贸易、投资模式和宏观经 济政策等产生了重要影响，是经济全球化最为显著的特点。全球价值链形成于企 业跨国活动，并影响和制约企业跨国活动。 本文以世界21个国家开展跨国并购的上市公司为例，运用混合截面门槛模 型，尝试将经济政策不确定性、全球价值链与企业跨国并购置于同一研究范畴内， 试图在剖清宏观经济政策不确定性对微观企业跨国并购这一特殊投资活动的影 响同时，探寻行业全球价值链在二者之间的效应关系。研究主要得出以下几点结 论：第一，无论是母国还是东道国，经济政策不确定性对企业跨国并购的影响存 在门槛效应。在门槛值的左边，即当经济政策不确定性低于某一水平时，经济政 策不确定性会明显促进表征数量的企业跨国并购扩展边际的增加以及并购绩效 的提升；而在门槛值的右侧，即当经济政策不确定性高于某一水平时，则对企业 跨国并购扩展边际与并购绩效产生显著抑制作用。第二，无论是在母国还是东道 国经济政策不确定性对企业跨国并购的影响中，行业全球价值链嵌入度有利于企 业并购扩展边际的提升与绩效的提高，并积极影响了母国和东道国经济政策不确 定性与企业跨国并购之间的关系。第三，无论是在母国还是东道国经济政策不确 定性对企业跨国并购的影响中，行业全球价值链位置越高，越有利于企业跨国并 购绩效的提升，并在经济政策不确定性影响企业跨国并购绩效中发挥着促进作用。 但经验数据表明当前中国企业尤其是制造业的全球价值链位置不高，行业整体处 于低端锁定和俘获的状态，给企业跨国并购绩效带来负面影响。本文的研究有以 下政策蕴含：第一，依据对实体经济发展的预期合理把握和调控经济政策不确定 性的变化度。第二，促进企业参与全球价值链和提升全球价值链位置，让全球价 值链在企业跨国并购中发挥积极效应。 II 本文可能的研究贡献在于：（1）对经济政策不确定性与投资的关系在跨国并 购的特定情境下进行再探讨，认知经济政策不确定性的“两面性”。（2）将全球 价值链嵌入至经济政策不确定性对跨国并购的影响作用中，发现对外贸易的对外 投资效应。 关键词：经济政策不确定性；全球价值链；跨国并购；投资边际；投资绩效 III Abstract In recent years, worldwide enterprises are faced with a profound background of cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&As) at home and abroad. Since the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008, the world economy has fallen into a long period of stagnation. The impact of structural reform in the new economy and the rise of anti- globalization policies have forced the world economy to an undergo sharp divergence during the periodic rebound, resulting in great uncertainties in the global economy and dramatic changes in enterprises’ and even countries’ external environment. Economic uncertainty consists of two parts: real economic uncertainty and economic policy uncertainty (EPU). Among them, the former is more extraneous and sudden, and less controlled by the government's initiative. In contrast, the change of economic policy has greater endogenous subjectivity and controllability, which has more theoretical guidance and practical operation significance for its research. Compared with other types of investment, foreign direct investment, especially cross-border M&A, is risky investments with a higher sensitivity to relevant economic policies and a more vulnerable part to fluctuations in real economic activities. Considering the effects of economic policy uncertainty, especially cross-border M&A and foreign direct investment of enterprises can not ignore the other important environmental factor— global value chain (GVC). The rise of global value chain has had an important impact on international trade, investment patterns and macroeconomic policies, and is the most prominent feature of economic globalization. The GVC is formed in the transnational activities of enterprises, affecting and restricting the transnational activities of enterprises. This thesis uses listed companies that conduct cross-border M&As in 21 worldwide countries as an example, and uses a hybrid cross-section threshold model to try to place EPU, GVC and enterprises’ cross-border M&As in the same research area, trying to analyze the impact of the uncertainty of macroeconomic policies on the special investment activities of cross-border M&As of micro-enterprises, and to explore the effect relationship between the GVC of the industry.The main conclusions are as follows: First, whether it is the home country or the host country, EPU has a threshold effect on the cross-border M&As of enterprises. On the left side of the threshold value, that is, when EPU is lower than a certain level, the uncertainty of the economic policy will obviously promote the increase of the expansion margin of the cross-border M&As IV and the improvement of the performance of the M&A. And on the right of the threshold, when the uncertainty of economic policy is higher than a certain level, it will have a significant inhibitory effect on the expansion margin and performance of cross-border M&As. Second, whether the EPU of the home country or the host country affects the cross-border M&As of enterprises, the industry's GVC embeddedness is conducive to the improvement of M&A expansion margin and performance. The increase in investment has positively affected the relationship between the economic policy uncertainty in home and host countries and cross-border M&As. Third, whether the economic policy uncertainty of the home or host country affects enterprises’ cross- border M&As, the higher the position of the industry's GVC, the more conducive to the improvement of cross-border M&As performance, and the effect of EPU to cross- border M&As. However, empirical data shows that the current position of Chinese enterprises, especially the manufacturing, is not high, and the industry as a whole is locked and captured at the low end, which has negatively affected the performance of cross-border M&As. The research in this thesis has the following policy implications: First, it is necessary to reasonably grasp the expectations of the development of the real economy and regulate the degree of change in the uncertainty of economic policies. Second, it is vital to promote the participation of enterprises in the GVC and enhance the position of the GVC, and give play to the positive effects of enterprises’ cross- border M&As. The possible research contributions of this thesis are: (1) Re-examining the relationship between EPU and investment in the specific context of cross-border M&A, and recognizing the "two-sidedness" of economic policy uncertainty. (2) Embedding GVC into the effects of EPU on cross-border M&A, and discovering the effect of foreign investment on foreign trade. Key words: Economic Policy Uncertainty, Global Value Chain, Cross-Border M&A, Investment Margin, Investment Performance V 目 录 摘要 .................... I Abstract .............. III 第1章 导论 ......... 1 1.1研究背景 1 1.2研究目的与意义 ................... 9 1.2.1研究目的 ................... 9 1.2.2研究意义 ................. 10 1.3国内外研究述评 ................. 12 1.3.1经济政策不确定性的宏微观影响研究 12 1.3.2跨国并购的影响因素研究 .................... 20 1.3.3全球价值链的影响研究 ........................ 21 1.3.4经济政策不确定性与企业对外活动研究 ........................... 23 1.3.5经济政策不确定性与全球价值链研究 25 1.3.6全球价值链与对外直接投资研究 ........ 27 1.3.7文献评介 ................. 28 1.4研究内容与方法 ................. 30 1.4.1研究内容 ................. 30 1.4.2研究方法 ................. 31 第2章 理论分析与研究假设 .......... 34 2.1经济政策不确定