在“互联网+”、大数据、人工智能的时代背景下，软件和信息技术服务业成为我 国社会经济转型、科技发展的核心力量，受到国家的高度重视。为了促进该行业的发展， 我国出台了一系列扶持政策，涉及知识产权、税收减免以及进出口优惠等方面。近年来， 虽然我国软件和信息技术服务业在企业数量、创新能力等方面都得到较大提升，但是企 业规模小、生命周期短、风险防范意以及风险管理能力弱的问题仍然普遍存在。因而， 较多企业选择在创业板上市。企业的融资渠道得以拓宽，融资问题得到解决。同时，企 业的发展也受到资本市场运作效率的影响，企业面临的财务风险的可能性随之加大。随 着市场竞争的加剧，创业板市场软件和信息技术服务业企业的财务风险问题逐渐凸显。 本文开篇介绍了选题的背景及意义，并分析了国内外关于上市公司财务风险评价研 究的现状；其次，以上市公司财务风险评价的相关理论知识为基础，结合在我国创业板 上市的软件和信息技术服务业企业的财务特征，对软件和信息技术服务业企业财务风险 评价的理论基础及相关概念进行界定，并对软件和信息技术服务业企业的财务风险成因 进行了分析；随后，围绕着企业的偿债能力、盈利能力、发展能力等六大方面构建财务 风险评价指标体系，以在创业板上市的99家软件和信息技术服务业企业为研究对象， 采用主成分分析法，对企业2018年的财务风险进行评价分析，并采用系统聚类分析法 对企业财务风险进行等级划分。得出盈利风险因素、偿债风险因素、现金流量风险因素、 营运风险因素和研发风险因素对综合财务风险的影响程度分别为38.8%、24.6%、16.7%、 12.2%、7.8%，盈利风险因素是影响综合财务风险的最重要因素，盈利风险高、研发风 险高、应收账款回款困难是导致公司综合财务风险高的主要原因。最后，结合当下软件 和信息技术服务业上市公司的业务特点和实际情况，针对普遍存在的财务风险提出有效 的解决建议。 关键词：创业板，软件和信息技术服务业，财务风险，主成分分析，聚类分析 中北大学学位论文 ResearchonFinancialRiskEvaluationofSoftwareandInformation TechnologyServiceEnterprises ABSTRACT Intheeraof"Internet+",bigdataandartificialintelligence,softwareandinformation technologyserviceindustryhasbecomethecorestrengthofChina'ssocialeconomic transformationandtechnologicaldevelopment,andhasbeenhighlyvaluedbythestate.In ordertopromotethedevelopmentoftheindustry,Chinahasintroducedaseriesofsupporting policies,involvingintellectualpropertyrights,taxreliefandimportandexportpreferences. Inrecentyears,althoughChina'ssoftwareandinformationtechnologyservicesindustryhas beengreatlyimprovedintermsofthenumberofenterprises,innovationability,etc.,the problemsofsmallscale,shortlifecycle,riskpreventionandweakriskmanagementability stillexist.Therefore,manyenterpriseschoosetolistonGEM.Thefinancingchannelsof enterpriseshavebeenwidenedandthefinancingproblemshavebeensolved.Atthesame time,thedevelopmentofenterprisesisalsoaffectedbytheefficiencyofcapitalmarket operation,andthepossibilityoffinancialrisksfacedbyenterprisesincreases.Withthe aggravationofmarketcompetition,thefinancialriskofsoftwareandinformationtechnology serviceenterprisesintheGEMmarkethasbecomeincreasinglyprominent. Thefirstpartofthispaperintroducesthebackgroundandsignificanceofthetopic,and analyzesthecurrentsituationoffinancialriskassessmentoflistedcompaniesathomeand abroad.Secondly,basedontherelevanttheoreticalknowledgeoffinancialriskassessmentof listedcompanies,combinedwiththefinancialcharacteristicsofsoftwareandinformation technologyserviceenterpriseslistedonthegem,thispaperanalyzesthefinancialrisk assessmentofsoftwareandinformationtechnologyserviceenterprisesThispaperdefinesthe basisandrelatedconcepts,andanalyzesthecausesofthefinancialrisksofsoftwareand informationtechnologyserviceenterprises.Then,itconstructsthefinancialriskevaluation indexsystemaroundthesixaspectsofthesolvency,profitabilityanddevelopmentabilityof 中北大学学位论文 theenterprises,andtakes99softwareandinformationtechnologyserviceenterpriseslisted onthegemastheresearchobject,usingtheprincipalcomponentanalysisMethod:To evaluateandanalyzethefinancialriskoftheenterprisein2018,andtogradethefinancial riskoftheenterprisewiththemethodofsystemclusteranalysis.Theresultsshowthatthe influencedegreeofprofitriskfactors,debtrepaymentriskfactors,cashflowriskfactors, operationriskfactorsandR&Driskfactorsoncomprehensivefinancialriskis38.8%, 24.6%,16.7%,12.2%and7.8%,respectively.Profitriskfactorsarethemostimportant factorsaffectingcomprehensivefinancialrisk,andhighprofitrisk,highR&Driskand difficultyincollectionofaccountsreceivablearethecausesofcomprehensivefinancialrisk ofthecompanyThemainreasonofhighbusinessrisk.Finally,combinedwiththecurrent businesscharacteristicsandactualsituationofListedCompaniesinsoftwareandinformation technologyservicesindustry,thispaperputsforwardeffectivesolutionstotheubiquitous financialrisks. Keyword:GEM,softwareandinformationtechnologyservices,financialrisk,principal componentanalysis,clusteranalysis 中北大学学位论文 I 目录 1.绪论 1.1研究背景及意义..........................................................................................................1 1.1.1研究背景.........................................................................................................1 1.1.2研究意义.........................................................................................................2 1.2国内外相关研究综述..................................................................................................3 1.2.1国外研究综述.................................................................................................3 1.2.2国内研究综述.................................................................................................6 1.2.3国内外研究评述...........................................................................................10 1.3研究内容与创新之处................................................................................................10 1.3.1研究内容.......................................................................................................10 1.3.2研究方法及技术路线图...............................................................................11 1.3.3可能的创新点...............................................................................................12 2.相关概念及理论基础 2.1相关概念介绍............................................................................................................13 2.1.1创业板市场的概念及基本特征...................................................................13 2.1.2财务风险的概念及特征...............................................................................14 2.1.3软件和信息技术服务业概念及特征...........................................................16 2.2相关理论基础............................................................................................................17 2.2.1委托代理理论...............................................................................................18 2.2.2资本结构理论...............................................................................................18 2.2.3投资组合理论...............................................................................................19 2.2.4内部控制理论...............................................................................................19 2.3财务风险评价方法....................................................................................................19 2.3.1财务风险评价方法简介...............................................................................19 2.3.2主成分分析法适用性说明...........................................................................20 中北大学学位论文 II 3.软件和信息技术服务业上市公司财务风险分析 3.1我国创业板的发展现状............................................................................................21 3.2软件和信息技术服务业现状分析............................................................................24 3.3软件和信息技术服务业上市公司财务风险特征及成因........................................30 3.3.1软件和信息技术服务业上市公司财务风险特征.......................................30 3.3.2软件和信息技术服务业上市公司财务风险成因.......................................31 4.创业板软件和信息技术服务业上市公司财务风险评价 4.1样本选取与数据来源..........................................